![ChifoiCristian's tweet photo. I'm also a believer in ATH before the Halving, and agree that the 4 year cycle is just correlation with macro liquidity. BUT...
I'm not a believer in the secular crypto bull that ends in a 5th wave in '24 and a prolonged bear market would settle in. I will present my whole case in this thread and explain why leaving the crypto sphere next year would be the greatest mistake of your life.
I will start with first topic: inflation vs rates
All over Twitter it's been said that high rates and high inflation environment is bad for assets. That's almost 100% wrong, with maybe some small windows when rates are raised and market has dips.
1st example
https://t.co/Vcvdxal78V
2nd example
https://t.co/9y7TuJSSH3
I'm watching the 54y cycle for inflation, and the start of QE (which is just a narrative) was after the last 54y cycle ended (2006).
Watch my whole analysis here:
https://t.co/FDWeTIbagN
We are actually in similar economy as in 1921 to 1929 Roaring Twenties
So the rates would have higher highs and higher lows this decade, and inflation would be sticky - that's very bullish for risk on assets, because the FED doesn't control anything, they participate in the market like everyone else.
Warren Buffet '70s:
In a high inflation environment, the best things to own [...] is 'companies'
This new class of assets is just at the begining, with a 1.2 trillion $ market cap, and reaching 6 trillion $ it shouldn't be compared with the DOT COM that reached a similar mkt cap before entering a prolonged bear market.
Different cycles (rates and inflation were coming down from the '80s to 2006), M2 money supply was 5x lower back then. Want a crypto bubble? Let's talk 40 trillion $ market cap and maybe..
Second topic
Let's separate crypto from BTC.
Talking about Bitcoin's bubble pop makes no sense to me. Bitcoin is the opposite of a bubble, it's more like the pin that pops bubbles (TERRA, CELSIUS, FTX etc.) - soon the FIAT bubble.
So this chart makes no sense to me. Here's why...
First of all, Bitcoin is a mathematical black hole for every other premium of every other asset in the world, not just for new printed dollars - which next year should be a MONSTROUS amount - because US GOVT would have to back all the deposits
As investors lose interest in bonds, they will raise rates this decade, and also yields to keep them in the system.
But again, in a high, sticky inflation environment, the only way to beat the hurdle rate is to go risk on!
US10Y cycle according to 54y inflation cycle
https://t.co/8g0k0kygeV
Third topic
From pleb money to high stakes
Since 2020, institutional investors entered the game, causing an inflection point in available supply on exchanges. Saylor has been the first to adopt a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy while everyone called him crazy.
Available supply will continue to drop, institutionals will keep using Bitcoin as treasuries - companies, corporations, pension funds, ETFs, 401k's etc.
The institutions have not entered the market to pump our bags, they came to shake us off!
Pleb money manage to get this asset from 3 bil $ (2014) to 278 bil $ (2017), imagine when big money starts to play in the game theory, and you left in '24 at ATH because a prolonged bear market comes after.
Actually what comes after is the new S-Curve
We are at the inflection point and everyone who is paperhanding Bitcoin, will be left with hyperinflation.
Bitcoin is very sensitive to liquidity, and imagine how much liquidity we will have after they have to back 18 trillion $ deposits (for starters).
What do you buy when you have excess currency? Scarce shit!
What do you buy when you want a flight to safety? More scarce shit!
1921 Depression, '70s stagflation, 2008 Deflation - Gold went parabolic.
Because it was scarce? Yes and No. As in the Dewey and Dakin 54y model, it was predictable, it was more like a constant in an increasingly variable world.
Its stock to flow was kinda predictible. So even if a big bust is coming to markets, as deflation (remember we are in a high inflation environment), smart people will choose the most predictible flight to safety.
Smart money always prepare for recessions in advance:
https://t.co/XxYTfKaBmM
Is it a coincidence that smart money applied for BTC spot ETF now, in advance of a possible deflation?
The chart with the 'prolonged' bear market, I think it will be every other asset in the world expressed in BTC, including cryptos.
So no, I don't think BTC will have that, on the contrary, in the future BTC price will be 'ineffable' - hard to express in curencies. We would express dollars in sats because it will be very hard to comprehend BTC's price.
Inflection point has started 3 years ago, from pleb to institutional, and the money printing will be wild and will fuel not just a bigger bull market, but a later deflationary bust - question is, what's your flight to safety?
Consider retweeting if this makes sense, more people should lean into more perspectives. Thanks!](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9XClasXkAAQRvl.jpg)
![ChifoiCristian's tweet photo. I'm also a believer in ATH before the Halving, and agree that the 4 year cycle is just correlation with macro liquidity. BUT...
I'm not a believer in the secular crypto bull that ends in a 5th wave in '24 and a prolonged bear market would settle in. I will present my whole case in this thread and explain why leaving the crypto sphere next year would be the greatest mistake of your life.
I will start with first topic: inflation vs rates
All over Twitter it's been said that high rates and high inflation environment is bad for assets. That's almost 100% wrong, with maybe some small windows when rates are raised and market has dips.
1st example
https://t.co/Vcvdxal78V
2nd example
https://t.co/9y7TuJSSH3
I'm watching the 54y cycle for inflation, and the start of QE (which is just a narrative) was after the last 54y cycle ended (2006).
Watch my whole analysis here:
https://t.co/FDWeTIbagN
We are actually in similar economy as in 1921 to 1929 Roaring Twenties
So the rates would have higher highs and higher lows this decade, and inflation would be sticky - that's very bullish for risk on assets, because the FED doesn't control anything, they participate in the market like everyone else.
Warren Buffet '70s:
In a high inflation environment, the best things to own [...] is 'companies'
This new class of assets is just at the begining, with a 1.2 trillion $ market cap, and reaching 6 trillion $ it shouldn't be compared with the DOT COM that reached a similar mkt cap before entering a prolonged bear market.
Different cycles (rates and inflation were coming down from the '80s to 2006), M2 money supply was 5x lower back then. Want a crypto bubble? Let's talk 40 trillion $ market cap and maybe..
Second topic
Let's separate crypto from BTC.
Talking about Bitcoin's bubble pop makes no sense to me. Bitcoin is the opposite of a bubble, it's more like the pin that pops bubbles (TERRA, CELSIUS, FTX etc.) - soon the FIAT bubble.
So this chart makes no sense to me. Here's why...
First of all, Bitcoin is a mathematical black hole for every other premium of every other asset in the world, not just for new printed dollars - which next year should be a MONSTROUS amount - because US GOVT would have to back all the deposits
As investors lose interest in bonds, they will raise rates this decade, and also yields to keep them in the system.
But again, in a high, sticky inflation environment, the only way to beat the hurdle rate is to go risk on!
US10Y cycle according to 54y inflation cycle
https://t.co/8g0k0kygeV
Third topic
From pleb money to high stakes
Since 2020, institutional investors entered the game, causing an inflection point in available supply on exchanges. Saylor has been the first to adopt a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy while everyone called him crazy.
Available supply will continue to drop, institutionals will keep using Bitcoin as treasuries - companies, corporations, pension funds, ETFs, 401k's etc.
The institutions have not entered the market to pump our bags, they came to shake us off!
Pleb money manage to get this asset from 3 bil $ (2014) to 278 bil $ (2017), imagine when big money starts to play in the game theory, and you left in '24 at ATH because a prolonged bear market comes after.
Actually what comes after is the new S-Curve
We are at the inflection point and everyone who is paperhanding Bitcoin, will be left with hyperinflation.
Bitcoin is very sensitive to liquidity, and imagine how much liquidity we will have after they have to back 18 trillion $ deposits (for starters).
What do you buy when you have excess currency? Scarce shit!
What do you buy when you want a flight to safety? More scarce shit!
1921 Depression, '70s stagflation, 2008 Deflation - Gold went parabolic.
Because it was scarce? Yes and No. As in the Dewey and Dakin 54y model, it was predictable, it was more like a constant in an increasingly variable world.
Its stock to flow was kinda predictible. So even if a big bust is coming to markets, as deflation (remember we are in a high inflation environment), smart people will choose the most predictible flight to safety.
Smart money always prepare for recessions in advance:
https://t.co/XxYTfKaBmM
Is it a coincidence that smart money applied for BTC spot ETF now, in advance of a possible deflation?
The chart with the 'prolonged' bear market, I think it will be every other asset in the world expressed in BTC, including cryptos.
So no, I don't think BTC will have that, on the contrary, in the future BTC price will be 'ineffable' - hard to express in curencies. We would express dollars in sats because it will be very hard to comprehend BTC's price.
Inflection point has started 3 years ago, from pleb to institutional, and the money printing will be wild and will fuel not just a bigger bull market, but a later deflationary bust - question is, what's your flight to safety?
Consider retweeting if this makes sense, more people should lean into more perspectives. Thanks!](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9XAKPbW0AABPLE.jpg)
Olivia
Online
dentistmen.com
@DentistmemC
Servicii pentru Clinici și Cabinete Stomatologice, Laboratoare de Tehnica Dentară
Joined May 2020
78 Following
94 Followers
96 Posts
@ChifoiCristian Brother Alex's vision is similar to Capo's. I can't wait for them both to be invalidated.
@ChifoiCristian People ! Short BTC Now !
🤣🤣🤣
Let me guess
You guys are gonna short the 72k resistance for a 3rd time right?
Who to follow
@ChifoiCristian Rechini pitici 😝
Cum suntem noi / vrem să devenim în această piață 🚀
🔟 Sell the news
We predict a classic "sell the news" event with a whip-like price movement after ETF approval. Maybe January 10!? Spike upwards, strong selling downwards and then upwards again.
@ChifoiCristian Let's send him a crate of Stella to keep it that way 😛
@ChifoiCristian Capo is the best social indicator 🤪
@ChifoiCristian GM băutorii de Stella !
Indicatorii sociali ✔️
Urmează 🚀
IMOBILIARELE
Median Sales Price for new Houses Sold in the United States (imaginea 1) are cea mai mare scadere din istoria Statelor Unite in decurs de un an. De la 496.800 cat a fost in Octombrie 2022 a ajuns la 409.300 in Octombrie 2023. E o scadere de 17.6%.
Acest indicator masoara vanzarea locuintelor noi din SUA. Cand vedem scaderi pe acest indicator?
1. Cand cererea scade. Cand cererea e scazuta vanzatorii sunt nevoiti sa reduca preturile.
2. Cand scade numarul invetitiilor in constructiile noi. Cand vanzarile scad, dezvoltatorii nu mai sunt dispusi sa construiasca locuinte noi.
3. Cand creste disponibiliatea locuintelor. Cand sunt din ce in ce mai putini cumparatori numarul locuintelor de pe piata devine mai mare.
In recesiunea din 2008 pretul mediu de vanzare a unei locuinte in SUA a scazut cu 12.7% in decurs de un an (mai exact in perioada Octombrie 2007 - Octombrie 2008). Tineti cont ca in 2008 SUA a trecut prin cea mai mare criza financiara de dupa 1929.
In ultimii 50 de ani SUA a avut 3 caderi pe imobiliare :
1. In 1973-1974
2. In 1990-1991
3. 2006 - 2008
Foarte putina lume stie ca imobiliarele au ciclul lor de 18 ani, impartit in 4 etape (imaginea a 2 a).
Facem cateva calcule simple:
1. 1973+18 = 1991 (prin perioada cand au avut loc scaderile pe imobiliarele).
2. 1990+18= 2008 (prin perioada cand au cazut imobiliarele).
3. Daca luam acum anul 2006 (acolo am avut topul pe imobiliare in US) +18 ani = 2024. Hmm ... ce "coincidenta" iar.
In imaginea a 3 a avem cel mai reprezentativ chart pe imobiliare :
United States Case Shiller Prince Index
Pe acest chart puteti vedea cum topul a fost pus in 2006 (linia galbena) iar atunci rata somajului era la un low.
In imaginea a 4 a avem acelasi setup ca atunci... imobiliarele sus si rata somajului la un low istoric (low nemaivazut de 54 de ani). Ce "coincidenta" iar.
Nimeni nu credea in 2006-2007 ca urmeaza sa cada imobiliarele desi semnalele erau acolo (chiar si fara a sti de ciclul de 18 ani). Nici acum nu prea vedem multa lume care sa creada intr-o cadere pe imobiliare desi avem foarte multe semnale.
Parerea mea este ca suntem in ultima etapa (RECESSION PHASE) si ce bine se pupa aceaza faza cu toti indicatorii macroeconomici si cu semnalele pe care ni le dau.
Alte semnale importante care ne indica o cadere pe imobiliare vin din SUA.
In SUA :
The We Company , o companie de birouri si spatii de lucru a declarat falimentul.
The Trump Organization, compania de dezvoltare imobiliara a lui Donal Trump a declarat falimentul.
Lone Star Funds, un fond de investitii imobiliare a declarat falimentul.
Crushman & Wakefield, o companie de consultanta imobiliara a declarat falimentul.
In China:
Evergrande Group si Country Garden au declarat falimentul. Sunt cei mai mari dezvoltatori imobiliari.
Sunac China Holdings, un alt dezvoltator chinez a declarat falimentul.
Kaisa Group, al 3 lea cel mai mare dezvoltator imobiliar din China a declarat falimentul.
Cred ca e destul de clar ca atunci cand primii 3 dezvoltatori imobiliari din China dau faliment nu e pentru ca imobiliarele o duc bine.
In Europa:
Unibail Rodamco Westfield, o companie de birouri si spatii comerciale din Franta a declarat falimentul.
Bilfinger SE, o companie de inginerie si constructii din Germania a declarat falimentul.
Sophion Real Estate, o companie de dezvoltare imobiliara din Irlanda a declarat falimentul.
Signa Real Estate a declarat falimentul acum 4 zile in Germania. Este cea mai mare companie imobiliara din Austria si una din cele mai mari de Europa.
Tot in Europa alte 3 companii de dezvoltare imobiliara se chinuie. Este vorba de:
Istone Immobilien, companie din Germania.
Vreitbau Holding, companie din Austria.
Bouygues Immobilier, companie din Franta.
Cele enumerate de mine In SUA, China si Europa sunt cele mai mari. Multe alte companii mai mici au dat faliment.
In Romania, doar in Bucuresti avem 3000 de dezvoltatori imobiliari. 2300 din dezvoltatori au risc crescut de insolventa in 2024.
Concluzia e ca sunt mult prea multe semnale pentru a putea fi ignorate. Sper ca aceste informatii sa va ajute in analiza proprie.
V-am salutat 🫡
Te rog, gândește: E GROASĂ și NEAGRĂ.
Plătesc taxe pe proprietățile pe care le dețin. Proprietăți pentru care am plătit deja taxe. Proprietăți achitate cu bani care deja au fost și ei la rândul lor taxați.
Ne învață de mici să consumăm știri, să fim ranchiunoși, să propulsăm hate pe x și pe y, să ne certăm între noi și să facem parte din jocul lor mizerabil. De ce? Ca să te spele pe cap și să te distragă de la lucrurile serioase.
Da, ești înșelat și furat zilnic.. și da, accepți zilnic tacit asta. Tu, părinții tăi, vecinii și tot neamul din moși strămoși.
Numești asta f**king libertate? Da, e chiar GROASĂ și NEAGRĂ.
1/ We've seen #Binance criminally charged, agree to a $4b fine and CZ step down as CEO.
Yet most don't know what this means for the future of this industry.
Here's all you need to know 🧵👇
@maur_gabriel Se vede clar ca este o lupta dura pentru cota de piața !
@maur_gabriel Adevărat, dar nici nu depinde de UȘ in totalitate. Oricum Institultionalii nu vor ieși, vor și ei o felie cât mai mare. Și nu au interesul sa scadă drastic sa piardă toată lumea încrederea
#Bitcoin
Fiecare va face bani in acest market fix atat cat merita,pentru implicarea devotamentul si rabdarea sa investind in spot!
Cine incerca sa pacaleasca acest market prin Futures/Market si inca spera sa faca bani multi din derivate,va realiza mai tarziu sau mai devreme ca se afla intr-o mare eroare!
I'm also a believer in ATH before the Halving, and agree that the 4 year cycle is just correlation with macro liquidity. BUT...
I'm not a believer in the secular crypto bull that ends in a 5th wave in '24 and a prolonged bear market would settle in. I will present my whole case in this thread and explain why leaving the crypto sphere next year would be the greatest mistake of your life.
I will start with first topic: inflation vs rates
All over Twitter it's been said that high rates and high inflation environment is bad for assets. That's almost 100% wrong, with maybe some small windows when rates are raised and market has dips.
1st example
https://t.co/Vcvdxal78V
2nd example
https://t.co/9y7TuJSSH3
I'm watching the 54y cycle for inflation, and the start of QE (which is just a narrative) was after the last 54y cycle ended (2006).
Watch my whole analysis here:
https://t.co/FDWeTIbagN
We are actually in similar economy as in 1921 to 1929 Roaring Twenties
So the rates would have higher highs and higher lows this decade, and inflation would be sticky - that's very bullish for risk on assets, because the FED doesn't control anything, they participate in the market like everyone else.
Warren Buffet '70s:
In a high inflation environment, the best things to own [...] is 'companies'
This new class of assets is just at the begining, with a 1.2 trillion $ market cap, and reaching 6 trillion $ it shouldn't be compared with the DOT COM that reached a similar mkt cap before entering a prolonged bear market.
Different cycles (rates and inflation were coming down from the '80s to 2006), M2 money supply was 5x lower back then. Want a crypto bubble? Let's talk 40 trillion $ market cap and maybe..
Second topic
Let's separate crypto from BTC.
Talking about Bitcoin's bubble pop makes no sense to me. Bitcoin is the opposite of a bubble, it's more like the pin that pops bubbles (TERRA, CELSIUS, FTX etc.) - soon the FIAT bubble.
So this chart makes no sense to me. Here's why...
First of all, Bitcoin is a mathematical black hole for every other premium of every other asset in the world, not just for new printed dollars - which next year should be a MONSTROUS amount - because US GOVT would have to back all the deposits
As investors lose interest in bonds, they will raise rates this decade, and also yields to keep them in the system.
But again, in a high, sticky inflation environment, the only way to beat the hurdle rate is to go risk on!
US10Y cycle according to 54y inflation cycle
https://t.co/8g0k0kygeV
Third topic
From pleb money to high stakes
Since 2020, institutional investors entered the game, causing an inflection point in available supply on exchanges. Saylor has been the first to adopt a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy while everyone called him crazy.
Available supply will continue to drop, institutionals will keep using Bitcoin as treasuries - companies, corporations, pension funds, ETFs, 401k's etc.
The institutions have not entered the market to pump our bags, they came to shake us off!
Pleb money manage to get this asset from 3 bil $ (2014) to 278 bil $ (2017), imagine when big money starts to play in the game theory, and you left in '24 at ATH because a prolonged bear market comes after.
Actually what comes after is the new S-Curve
We are at the inflection point and everyone who is paperhanding Bitcoin, will be left with hyperinflation.
Bitcoin is very sensitive to liquidity, and imagine how much liquidity we will have after they have to back 18 trillion $ deposits (for starters).
What do you buy when you have excess currency? Scarce shit!
What do you buy when you want a flight to safety? More scarce shit!
1921 Depression, '70s stagflation, 2008 Deflation - Gold went parabolic.
Because it was scarce? Yes and No. As in the Dewey and Dakin 54y model, it was predictable, it was more like a constant in an increasingly variable world.
Its stock to flow was kinda predictible. So even if a big bust is coming to markets, as deflation (remember we are in a high inflation environment), smart people will choose the most predictible flight to safety.
Smart money always prepare for recessions in advance:
https://t.co/XxYTfKaBmM
Is it a coincidence that smart money applied for BTC spot ETF now, in advance of a possible deflation?
The chart with the 'prolonged' bear market, I think it will be every other asset in the world expressed in BTC, including cryptos.
So no, I don't think BTC will have that, on the contrary, in the future BTC price will be 'ineffable' - hard to express in curencies. We would express dollars in sats because it will be very hard to comprehend BTC's price.
Inflection point has started 3 years ago, from pleb to institutional, and the money printing will be wild and will fuel not just a bigger bull market, but a later deflationary bust - question is, what's your flight to safety?
Consider retweeting if this makes sense, more people should lean into more perspectives. Thanks!
![ChifoiCristian's tweet photo. I'm also a believer in ATH before the Halving, and agree that the 4 year cycle is just correlation with macro liquidity. BUT...
I'm not a believer in the secular crypto bull that ends in a 5th wave in '24 and a prolonged bear market would settle in. I will present my whole case in this thread and explain why leaving the crypto sphere next year would be the greatest mistake of your life.
I will start with first topic: inflation vs rates
All over Twitter it's been said that high rates and high inflation environment is bad for assets. That's almost 100% wrong, with maybe some small windows when rates are raised and market has dips.
1st example
https://t.co/Vcvdxal78V
2nd example
https://t.co/9y7TuJSSH3
I'm watching the 54y cycle for inflation, and the start of QE (which is just a narrative) was after the last 54y cycle ended (2006).
Watch my whole analysis here:
https://t.co/FDWeTIbagN
We are actually in similar economy as in 1921 to 1929 Roaring Twenties
So the rates would have higher highs and higher lows this decade, and inflation would be sticky - that's very bullish for risk on assets, because the FED doesn't control anything, they participate in the market like everyone else.
Warren Buffet '70s:
In a high inflation environment, the best things to own [...] is 'companies'
This new class of assets is just at the begining, with a 1.2 trillion $ market cap, and reaching 6 trillion $ it shouldn't be compared with the DOT COM that reached a similar mkt cap before entering a prolonged bear market.
Different cycles (rates and inflation were coming down from the '80s to 2006), M2 money supply was 5x lower back then. Want a crypto bubble? Let's talk 40 trillion $ market cap and maybe..
Second topic
Let's separate crypto from BTC.
Talking about Bitcoin's bubble pop makes no sense to me. Bitcoin is the opposite of a bubble, it's more like the pin that pops bubbles (TERRA, CELSIUS, FTX etc.) - soon the FIAT bubble.
So this chart makes no sense to me. Here's why...
First of all, Bitcoin is a mathematical black hole for every other premium of every other asset in the world, not just for new printed dollars - which next year should be a MONSTROUS amount - because US GOVT would have to back all the deposits
As investors lose interest in bonds, they will raise rates this decade, and also yields to keep them in the system.
But again, in a high, sticky inflation environment, the only way to beat the hurdle rate is to go risk on!
US10Y cycle according to 54y inflation cycle
https://t.co/8g0k0kygeV
Third topic
From pleb money to high stakes
Since 2020, institutional investors entered the game, causing an inflection point in available supply on exchanges. Saylor has been the first to adopt a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy while everyone called him crazy.
Available supply will continue to drop, institutionals will keep using Bitcoin as treasuries - companies, corporations, pension funds, ETFs, 401k's etc.
The institutions have not entered the market to pump our bags, they came to shake us off!
Pleb money manage to get this asset from 3 bil $ (2014) to 278 bil $ (2017), imagine when big money starts to play in the game theory, and you left in '24 at ATH because a prolonged bear market comes after.
Actually what comes after is the new S-Curve
We are at the inflection point and everyone who is paperhanding Bitcoin, will be left with hyperinflation.
Bitcoin is very sensitive to liquidity, and imagine how much liquidity we will have after they have to back 18 trillion $ deposits (for starters).
What do you buy when you have excess currency? Scarce shit!
What do you buy when you want a flight to safety? More scarce shit!
1921 Depression, '70s stagflation, 2008 Deflation - Gold went parabolic.
Because it was scarce? Yes and No. As in the Dewey and Dakin 54y model, it was predictable, it was more like a constant in an increasingly variable world.
Its stock to flow was kinda predictible. So even if a big bust is coming to markets, as deflation (remember we are in a high inflation environment), smart people will choose the most predictible flight to safety.
Smart money always prepare for recessions in advance:
https://t.co/XxYTfKaBmM
Is it a coincidence that smart money applied for BTC spot ETF now, in advance of a possible deflation?
The chart with the 'prolonged' bear market, I think it will be every other asset in the world expressed in BTC, including cryptos.
So no, I don't think BTC will have that, on the contrary, in the future BTC price will be 'ineffable' - hard to express in curencies. We would express dollars in sats because it will be very hard to comprehend BTC's price.
Inflection point has started 3 years ago, from pleb to institutional, and the money printing will be wild and will fuel not just a bigger bull market, but a later deflationary bust - question is, what's your flight to safety?
Consider retweeting if this makes sense, more people should lean into more perspectives. Thanks!](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9XEcB3XYAAg-pk.jpg)
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