Derek Scissors

Resident scholar, American Enterprise Institute; Chief economist, China Beige Book

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Perhaps more surprising: in the short term, China’s purely domestic economy may have been shrinking for at least two years. (4/4)

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Recession with Chinese Characteristics https://t.co/V8ywAZ7t9d (1/4)

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Due to policy choices and demography, China’s long-term economic future is grim. (3/4)

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A mainstay issue being suspiciously soft-played is pharmaceuticals.

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The US Takes the Easy Road on China https://t.co/IbAcWAPf3O

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The President’s long-standing chase for China deals has pushed the US to avoid hard choices, only to get burned later.

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Inequality, Not China, Could Take Down the Dollar https://t.co/cozbjqn8Qa

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Trillions in Foreign Investment? No Boom Yet https://t.co/uNVknOM2zu

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A Decade of US-China Fundamentals https://t.co/ZT7XrjiSJv

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Ho Hum, Another Year of US Energy Dominance https://t.co/9Bb5ahOIxb

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When Does China Stop Growing (Entirely)? https://t.co/f6OCXnNHvY

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Some Clarifications Regarding the New Trade Situation
https://t.co/IcDszQuEJe

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2025 Trade and Investment Didn’t Yield Manufacturing Jobs https://t.co/CzQZIuS5db

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The China Global Investment Tracker is the only comprehensive public data set covering the country’s outbound investment and construction. It includes 4,900 large transactions across metals, property, agriculture, and other sectors, plus over 400 troubled transactions.

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China Global Investment Tracker https://t.co/54zJgxV4Jl

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The value of China’s overseas investment and construction combined since 2005 has hit $2.6 trillion. Verifiable investment recovered from Covid and zero-Covid but has not gone back anywhere close to the peak in the mid-2010s.

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Steady, Not Soaring, Chinese Investment in 2025 https://t.co/oLeXelGGda

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A Rich China Recedes Into the Distance https://t.co/l7gibVgLLk