Derek Tian

I invest in stuff.

[Yishan @yishan]

Today I’m going to tell you why I chose reforestation as my climate change solution to back.

There are many proposed solutions to the climate crisis. Why did I choose this one?

Well, reforestation is not just a solution unto itself, it is part of a grand climate strategy.

I want to solve all of climate change. I want it to be a solved problem. Comprehensively, conclusively, in a very real sense.

But I cannot do it alone.

Climate change is an enormous, planetary-scale problem, and it will not be solved by any one person, or solution, or any single country. It is a global issue, and it’s really complicated.

So here is why global reforestation FIRST is the key wedge needed to enable a global effort to truly, comprehensively, overcome our climate crisis.

Remember - the key advantages of global reforestation as a strategy:

It is simple, reliable, and universally accessible.

Of course there are quite a few practical hurdles. But compared to all the solutions, achieving planetary scale with global forest restoration is one of the least complicated.

Unlike high-tech solutions, it is broadly understandable and anyone can participate.

The ability to plant trees, to restore forests is within reach of any human being, in any country.

Why, if every human being alive planted only 1 tree a month, we’d approach a trillion trees after only a decade (try the math!).

Not every human being can put up solar panels or drive an electric car (all fine things to do, btw). But every human being can plant 1 tree a month.

The ability for anyone to pitch in is important because climate change is a global issue. To sustain our will to walk such a long path, we need a vision that all 8 billion of us, all stakeholders, can join in on.

Like all the solutions that have been proposed, reforestation by itself will not solve climate change.

The latest scientific consensus says that it will sequester maybe a third of all existing emissions.

And if we do a bunch of clever things where we restore desertified lands with irrigated water from cheap solar desalination, we might get up to 2/3rds.

(Those are very large fractions! Current solutions all still fall under 1% of the problem!)

And here is the key:

Solving climate change, and keeping it solved, and advancing our civilization and the quality of lives while doing it is a huge, worldwide movement that requires everyone working together.

And right now, the world isn’t really in the right mood, the right mindset. We’re pretty down on ourselves.

There’s economic strife, political upheaval, outright wars, and it looks like international consensus to work together on big problems is not too strong.

There’s no confidence, no belief, that we can collectively solve big problems. And so we muck about, arguing with each other, avoiding the hard questions.

In tech, our most optimistic minds today are racing ahead on AI, hoping to build a super-intelligent god quickly enough in the hopes that it will save us all. That is not really optimism, that is desperation.

But this is what success in global forest restoration is really for.

Because by itself, reforestation won’t solve climate change. It will just solve a big part of it.

But when we succeed in doing so, we will succeed in a way where everyone was able to be part of the solution.

And that is valuable beyond measure.

If we declared a crisis and then a handful of billionaires solved it, it would barely register. All that would do is feed their egos, re-affirm their superior status, and further concentrate their power.

We would not - as a species, as mankind - we would not GROW from that.

What sets reforestation apart is the fact that it is simple, so everyone can understand it, and everyone, in every country, can play a part. This is crucial.

When the day of victory comes, and we have restored all of the world’s ancient forests and then some, when we have solved 1/3rd, or 2/3rds - some great fraction - of the climate change problem, it will not just be a small group of people, a small group of countries. No, it will be people ALL OVER THE WORLD, GREAT AND SMALL, who can say -

“We did this! We were part of this solution! We can do it!”

THAT is the ultimate goal, the master plan.

Reforestation is not just a simple, reliable, universally accessible, and immediately scalable solution. It is all those things, yes.

It is also the solution that everyone can contribute to, because once that day comes, when we have succeeded, it will be a success that everyone realizes they were a part of.

It will be a victory that gives the world confidence. It will show everyone that collectively, all of us, we can work together to achieve great things, and solve enormous planetary-scale problems.

Everyone will know that this solution came about because we chose to bring it about. We can choose to solve planetary-scale problems, to work together, and succeed.

Climate change - on that day - will not yet be fully solved.

But enough of it will be, and nearly everyone will have been a part of it. And we will all look upon our work and realize what is possible.

And that confidence is what mankind needs.

With that confidence we will easily close the gap, we will easily mobilize ourselves to solve the remaining environmental and ecological issues and we will know a grander scope of what is possible for mankind.

Forevermore, our restored beautiful planet will be a monument to remind us - that together we can accomplish great things and solve any problem, no matter how daunting.

That confidence - that existence proof - the knowledge that we can do it.

That is our true goal, a worthy one, for it will be a gift.

A gift to our children, to the future - for we are ancestors.

[Yishan @yishan]

For Earth Day 2025, the world needs a reset on climate thinking.

The first scientists who spoke out about climate change did so according to the facts and evidence, fighting harsh pressure from industries and denialists.

But climate activism become more about political tribalism, social justice, and virtue signaling.

I have spent half a decade now working with other climate entrepreneurs to do everything possible to fight the battle against climate change.

And in that time, many of us have found that the Left is as bad as the Right when it comes to standing in the way of making real progress against this problem!

Today’s politics are about vibes and tribes, not facts and evidence.

Nowhere is this more on tragic display when it comes to climate policy and public discussion.

In a scientific field so vastly complex and multidisciplinary as climate science, we can ill afford this!

On this Earth Day 2025, we need a new era of climate thinking, one focused on practical solutions, real experiments, and the evidence they yield.

Climate is many things, but it’s not about social justice. It’s not about decolonization. It’s not about capitalism or marxism. It’s not about the patriarchy. It is not about the bad guys vs the good guys. It is about gases in the atmosphere.

Carbon footprint is not a moral sin, it is not something we need to “atone” for.

It is a technical problem, a detail we missed, and a physical problem to be solved like any other.

We are living together on a Spaceship Earth and we missed a key detail managing our atmospheric control systems. It is not a moral or social issue, it is a technical problem, and we need to solve it.

And we will not solve the problem until we actually start solving the problem!!

There are many many solutions, and whether one “side” prefers one vs the other is not the point. The point is whether it works and gets us closer to our goal. For example:

Reforestation is effective at carbon capture and can be done almost anywhere by anyone!

Natural gas is actually a great replacement for coal and amenable to carbon capture and sequestration!

Solar power is great where there is a lot of land and sunlight!

Nuclear power is great where there is little land and a highly-skilled workforce!

Nuclear waste is a solved problem!

Wacky windmill designs are provably inferior to large maximally amortizable 3-bladed designs!

Really big dams are great but limited by available geography!

High-voltage long-distance power lines need to be built to connect production and consumption!

Stratospheric aerosol injection is affordable and effective and not the same thing as causing acid rain pollution!

Finally, advocating carbon drawdown is not saying we don’t need to reduce emissions, so stop with that silliness! (Liking pancakes doesn’t mean you hate waffles!)

All of these things (and many more) all fit into a giant portfolio of solutions that contribute to solving the problem.

If this is a climate EMERGENCY, start acting like it: support all possible solutions, try out all experiments, and don’t give in to despair!

Climate change is a problem we DESERVE: finally, as we climb our way up the Kardashev scale, we have reached a milestone where our activities are great enough to affect the planetary atmosphere and ecosystem. And of course we didn’t do a perfect job on our first try! We are lucky that we’re only a couple degrees off!

We can fix this, if we focus on solving the problem!

We will succeed if we focus on evidence-based problem-solving, and not be distracted by passing political and social fads.

It’s 2025, and it is time for us to stop making climate change a proxy issue for our other political and social debates.

Those debates aren’t going to go away any time soon. Some of them are timeless. And plenty of them are worthwhile debates.

But climate change is a separate problem on its own, and it’s a problem we can solve. And we deserve, all of us, to live on a planet that’s healthy and beautiful - and it will be even sweeter, if we are the ones who helped make it so.

After all, if we are going to visit other planets, it’s best to make sure our own house is in order first.

[Derek Tian @DerekTian4]

@espn_macmahon This was maddening to read as a MFFL and yet, such a classic story that plays out in boardrooms everywhere in the corporate world. I hope Nico gets his just rewards for such gross mismanagement and poor leadership.

[Derek Tian @DerekTian4]

@KeithSmithNBA They’ll suit up Hardy and PJ for DNPs if needed no? Still a ridiculous situation. The Nico trade curse is real.

[Yishan @yishan]

There's actually a really really ugly truth inside this tech-right/maga-right H1B issue that almost no one has touched.

Are you ready? No one is going to like this.

Let me first set up the framing a bit.

Tech-right wants Top-0.1%+ global-level geniuses. Ok, fine, tech wants to grab every genius in the world for the USA.

There is a separate issue of - let's call them "technically-literate workers" - roughly in the 40-90% percentile. We could call them "mids" but it's not exactly right because it does extend up to 90-95% percentile.

The program for this calls it "high-skilled immigrants" but in reality it extends pretty far down to "mid-skill" and is being systematically defrauded to bring in Actually-Incompetent People, and this is a grift that's cheating both native-born Americans and the immigrants themselves.

It also legitimately brings in some high-skill immigrants. Looking at the numbers, it appears to be 50% legit and 50% totally-corrupt. That's not a good percentage. The 50% legit is bringing in people in the 80-95%-tile range ("high but not genius") and the 50% corrupt part is bringing in people in the 40-80% range ("mid to somewhat not").

Maybe you have a quibble but I'm pretty sure I'm broad-strokes on target, so stick with me here:

I want to introduce a key concept, which is "jobs that American companies need done, for which there are qualified Americans but not enough Americans want to do them."

Some of these jobs are like "accountant," which happens to qualify for H1B treatment.

But to make this more clear, let me go lower: the job of strawberry-picker.

This not a high-skill job, or a mid-skill job, it is a hard labor job. Young Americans don't want to do this. They choose not to.

(If you have a problem with "they choose not to" then go back to your feminism wage gap debate and how women get paid less because they "choose not to" take jobs that pay more with high stress. "Choose not to" is already something you accept when it leads to uneven social outcomes)

Well, America still needs strawberries so companies hire immigrant migrant laborers. Today we don't get complaints about this on X because no one is like "I'm from Appalachia and went to a top-tier school and the farms I applied to hired migrant workers who are less qualified than me to pick strawberries" because that guy didn't want that job.

I am using this example because hard labor jobs are ones that Americans definitely do not want to do, and I am using it to highlight the fact that there are MANY "mid" jobs that require some computer-work that many Americans don't really want to do but which need to be done and they end up getting filled with H1Bs.

Think of this as "grunt knowledge work."

What we are ostensibly trying to solve for is that there are a lot of these mid jobs, and we want native-born Americans to do them. (And that part of doing them actually is going to be needing to pay more, like at oil-rig levels, and this may be a problem - but let's let the Leftists fight that one for us)

But the point is: we (Americans!) want those jobs, stop giving them to foreigners!

Those jobs aren't done by (or need) O-1 geniuses, but they pay good money, that money should go to native Americans.

We have not gotten to the dark punchline yet, so don't get upset yet if you have some problem with a detail in this setup above.

Here is the dark ugly truth:

All of these jobs are going to totally eliminated by the end of the Trump administration and done by AI.

The tech-right knows this. The tech-left knows this. Sam Altman, much hated and so misunderstood, definitely knows this and has been trying to save you all by normalizing the idea of UBI because he can tell that obviously the AI wave is going to crush everything.

Last week's o3 announcement indicated that we have an AI within shooting range of PhD-level humans. Whether it's completely there or not, it means we're very very close to AI that is as good as the Top-0.1% immigrants. The O-1 guys are not safe. It costs $5000 to ask it a single question today but in 5 years that'll be fifty cents.

EVERY SINGLE KNOWLEDGE-WORK JOB YOU ARE FIGHTING OVER WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME TRUMP FINISHES HIS TERM.

The entire debate here over immigration is a nothing-burger. I'm sorry. I'm very sympathetic to you heartland white dudes in IT because I grew up in Minnesota but everyone in tech knows this.

Tech is trying to hire global-level geniuses because that's what drives its industry but the monster wave that's going to make all this pointless is that none of these H1B jobs are going to exist in 4 years. At all.

No, you will not have a job telling the robots what to do. A single (maybe-)human CEO will be sitting there saying, "Get this done" to the AI employees.

Ironically, it WILL be the physical jobs that will last a bit longer (except that the physical robots are coming too), and I don't want to talk my book too much but I'll digress a bit here: I told you all that the future is in tree-planting.

But the dark core here is this:

Everyone mid, and even a large portion of geniuses: if you're exchanging your brainpower for money - AI is going to eat all that up within the next few years. Immigration as a debate just doesn't matter. The same companies that exploit immigrants for money will quickly switch over to AI as soon as it's cost-effective.

You are arguing about immigration because it's part of your tribal affiliation to argue about immigration. I respect that. I get it. You gotta fight for what's yours.
Maybe you're going to win the argument. It doesn't matter. Because at some point before Trump leaves office you may very well be standing shoulder-to-shoulder with your fellow human, Steve and Arjun both storming the datacenters with pitchforks.

Now, tech still has the opportunity to bring forth a great and grand future for all.

Yes, AI can do labor for all of us. But the benefits have to be broadly-distributed, and we have to reconceive of how we think about work and labor and society. Maybe we'll navigate all that successfully. But that's another issue. You may want to talk to the Leftists about their ideas on how to do that.

But in the meantime, the dark truth you need to know (and which isn't being openly acknowledged, weirdly) is that the very same thing that makes those H1B jobs something you are so passionately fighting over is the very same thing that makes it so that AI is going to completely eliminate them within a few years.

Be ready. ����

[Gabrielle Giffords @GabbyGiffords]

After I was shot, I had to relearn how to talk one word at a time.

Today, I still struggle to speak but I have not lost my voice—and I’m using it to urge all Americans to vote for @KamalaHarris and @Tim_Walz tomorrow.

[Rick Steves @RickSteves]

How do fascists derail democracy? If you study history (or read Project 2025), it’s almost like there’s a recipe book: goose the economy, abolish unions, privatize what’s public, win the support of tycoons. But at what cost? Mesmerize your base so they don’t care. Blind them with your fear-mongering, lies, and promises. Fascism needs a bold leader…the only one who can fix things…a dictator who has the vision and expects others to follow (including women…whether they like it or not).

I believe that history is indeed speaking to us — and those who refuse to learn from it are doomed to repeat it. To learn how fascism hijacked Germany a century ago, just watch this five-minute clip. If you care about our democracy and love our country, it’s hard to stop watching.

This is an excerpt from my hourlong public television special “The Story of Fascism in Europe,” which is streaming free (and ad-free) at https://t.co/YA10kVH0V8. When I produced it back in 2018, I hoped this day would never come in our country. But November 5th is upon us.

Please share this with anyone in your life who might need a reminder that the stakes are high…and this is very real.

[Seth Abramson @SethAbramson]

This video is incredible.

Everyone should RETWEET it so the whole *world* sees it.

[Morgan J. Freeman @mjfree]

Pls DO NOT share this clip of the size of Kamala’s crowd (75K+) last night or Diaper Trump will shit his XXL Depends so hard it’ll shoot out his pant legs and ruin his shoes and socks!!!

(This is code for share share share!!!!)

[Schopenhauer Capital @SchopenhauerCap]

$jakk insane results!
$70M adj ebitda in an average movie year.
We should be at $80M cash by year end (no debt). Trading at 3x ebitda 😅
It should become clear that the business is a lot more predictable that people perceive it to be. 25 and 26 look great with much more content

[Arnold Schwarzenegger @Schwarzenegger]

I don’t really do endorsements. I’m not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don’t trust most politicians.

I also understand that people want to hear from me because I am not just a celebrity, I am a former Republican Governor.

My time as Governor taught me to love policy and ignore politics. I’m proud of the work I did to help clean up our air, create jobs, balance the budget, make the biggest infrastructure investment in state history, and take power from the politicians and give it back to the people when it comes to our redistricting process and our primaries in California.

That’s policy. It requires working with the other side, not insulting them to win your next election, and I know it isn’t sexy to most people, but I love it when I can help make people’s lives better with policies, like I still do through my institute at USC, where we fight for clean air and stripping the power from the politicians who rig the system against the people.

Let me be honest with you: I don’t like either party right now. My Republicans have forgotten the beauty of the free market, driven up deficits, and rejected election results. Democrats aren’t any better at dealing with deficits, and I worry about their local policies hurting our cities with increased crime.

It is probably not a surprise that I hate politics more than ever, which, if you are a normal person who isn’t addicted to this crap, you probably understand.

I want to tune out.

But I can’t. Because rejecting the results of an election is as un-American as it gets. To someone like me who talks to people all over the world and still knows America is the shining city on a hill, calling America is a trash can for the world is so unpatriotic, it makes me furious.

And I will always be an American before I am a Republican.

That’s why, this week, I am voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

I’m sharing it with all of you because I think there are a lot of you who feel like I do. You don’t recognize our country. And you are right to be furious.

For decades, we’ve talked about the national debt. For decades, we’ve talked about comprehensive immigration reform that secures the border while fixing our broken immigration system. And Washington does nothing.

The problems just keep rolling, and we all keep getting angrier, because the only people that benefit from problems aren’t you, the people. The only people that benefit from this crap are the politicians who prefer having talking points to win elections to the public service that will make Americans’ lives better.

It is a just game to them. But it is life for my fellow Americans. We should be pissed!

But a candidate who won’t respect your vote unless it is for him, a candidate who will send his followers to storm the Capitol while he watches with a Diet Coke, a candidate who has shown no ability to work to pass any policy besides a tax cut that helped his donors and other rich people like me but helped no one else else, a candidate who thinks Americans who disagree with him are the bigger enemies than China, Russia, or North Korea - that won’t solve our problems.

It will just be four more years of bullshit with no results that makes us angrier and angrier, more divided, and more hateful.

We need to close the door on this chapter of American history, and I know that former President Trump won’t do that. He will divide, he will insult, he will find new ways to be more un-American than he already has been, and we, the people, will get nothing but more anger.

That’s enough reason for me to share my vote with all of you. I want to move forward as a country, and even though I have plenty of disagreements with their platform, I think the only way to do that is with Harris and Walz.

Vote this week. Turn the page and put this junk behind us.

And even if you disagree with me, vote, because that’s what we do as Americans. https://t.co/eHFZ723I4H

[Rick Steves @RickSteves]

Many don’t realize that the first people Hitler sent to his concentration camps weren’t everyday Jewish citizens, but his political opponents. So, when Trump rants about retribution, locking up his opponents, and giving them “very long sentences,” I can’t help but take him seriously… because history teaches us that is what fascist dictators do during their “Day One” period to consolidate their power. (After all, if you’re hellbent on staying in power but aren’t likely to win the next election, you can’t have your political opponents running around free.)

To keep fascism out of our lives, vote for democracy!

[Bill Madden @maddenifico]

Dr. Eric, with FACTS for MAGA fascists about abortion. 🙌🙏👏👊🌊🇺🇸

[Tim Walz @Tim_Walz]

Kamala Harris and I are both gun owners.

We’re not going to take away your Second Amendment rights — we’re going to prevent your kids from getting shot at school.

[Derek Tian @DerekTian4]

@NationMffl Redwood City by way of NYC. MFFL 24 years and counting.

[Derek Tian @DerekTian4]

@All_Things_Mavs And DLive offensive rebounds and Josh Green 50/50 balls. Those 3 showed up big time.

[Derek Tian @DerekTian4]

@AltaFoxCapital He a bad bad man.

[Derek Tian @DerekTian4]

@AltaFoxCapital Mavs controlled the paint against an impressive Wolves front court on both offense and defense. Got the win even when shooting the three ball poorly. I think they’ve got this series and agreed on the championship outlook. #MFFL

[Derek Tian @DerekTian4]

@realEstateTrent Swap out NYC for SF Bay Area and math is about the same. Also, don’t forget family vacations, summer camps and extracurriculars for the two kids…

[Derek Tian @DerekTian4]

@All_Things_Mavs He needs to get back on d after a no call. Complain all you want but play the game while you do it. It’s not 47 min of basketball. You can’t abdicate just because the refs get a call wrong. It’s part of the game.