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Daily Stock Market Commentary. Both Long/Short Ideas. Mostly Technical Analysis. Occasional Rants & Humor. Financial Advice.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$MCD Super random and can be just coincidence but I’m gonna say it anyways.

Name is currently down 6 of the last 7 months.

Has only down something like this two other times in the last 10 years.

BOTH times immediately marked THE bottom and ripped higher.

Fwiw.

#coping

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$SPX monthly since 2009:

Octobers: 10 greens, 7 reds

Novembers: 14 greens, 3 reds

Decembers: 11 greens, 6 reds

Keep in mind 4 of the 7 October reds were really shallow.

Also all 3 of the November reds were really shallow.

And 3 of the 6 December reds were really shallow.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

So all in all, since 2009, out of 51 total monthly Q4 sample sizes, we only saw 6 notable drawdowns. Or about 11% of the time.

Enjoy.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$QQQ Lines are intersecting soon. One has to give. Which way it breaks?

Are you Team A or Team B?

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$HOOD second wind today.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$QQQ just closed at a fresh one month high today.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$QQQ just closed at a fresh one month high today.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

Friday fun fact:

$COST Costco is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year.

And for 41 of those years they have served their famous hot dog and drink and still never charged more than the original price of $1.50.

With that said, their stock is sucking lately.

Wake up.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$VIX last 18 Fridays (or day before if a holiday):

15 reds to 3 greens.

They don’t call it $VIX Crush Fridays ™️ for no reason.

Oof.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$VIX last 18 Fridays (or day before if a holiday):

15 reds to 3 greens.

They don’t call it $VIX Crush Fridays ™️ for no reason.

Oof.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

Fun $NKE stat line, cause you know it’s been miserable for Nike shareholders lately.. So I’ll brighten you up:

Barring an absolute miracle, name looks like it will close September red. That will make it back to back red months.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

The name has not gone back to back to back red months in almost 4.5 years!

They wouldn’t would they?

Play for a green October? Or foolish thinking?

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$RSP Equal weighted S&P500 not looking that great lately… healthy pullback though.

Down almost 6% ATH peak to trough.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

Trump promises a $5k check (inflation gonna boomies btw) to every American if Replublicans win the House and Senate.

Meanwhile oddsmakers have it at barely 10% chance.

In fact, they have it at an overwhelming 60% chance it will be a Democratic sweep instead!

Hmm. 🧐

[. @Derivativesbtc]

If $GOOGL closes above $353 today, I’ll give three random people $100 via X Money (must have X Money) who likes this tweet.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$MSTR +12% today my goodness.

Putting the MSTR in MonSTeR rally today.

K, I’ll see myself out now.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$MSTR +12% today my goodness.

Putting the MSTR in MonSTeR rally today.

K, I’ll see myself out now.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

I think the $VIX will see at least 25 or so at least one more time this year. Preferably in October.

Obviously not an egregious prediction as it’s an oscillating indicator and historically October has seen an average peak of almost 30 in the last 8 years.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

But would love to see a Thanksgiving/Santa Rally begin at a lower point as oppose to a high point to close out 2026. Duh right?

Agree or agree to disagree?

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$GOOGL healthy mini pullback today after a nice pump from $328 to almost $360.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$GOOGL $359 to $350. My bad guys.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$GOOGL $359 to $350. My bad guys.

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$BABA +4% today. It’s a start…

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$BABA +4% today. It’s a start…

[. @Derivativesbtc]

$AVGO and $GOOGL rippin’ today.