It took 9 monthly red candles in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets for $BTC to bottom out.
Bitcoin has closed 7 red monthly candles so far.
This means the real capitulation hasn't happened yet.
๐จ BITCOIN ALREADY HAS ITS NEXT BOTTOM DATE
Every major $BTC bull market lasted 1064 days.
Every following bear market lasted 364 days.
2015 โ 2017: 1064 days up
2017 โ 2018: 364 days down
2018 โ 2021: 1064 days up
2021 โ 2022: 364 days down
2022 โ 2025: 1064 days up
If the cycle repeats, the next $BTC bottom comes on October 5.
Save the date.
#BTC - The 12M Cycle Is Flashing Something Different ๐
The historical $BTC rhythm has been clear:
๐ธ3 years UP โ 1 year DOWN
๐ธ3 years UP โ 1 year DOWN
๐ธ3 years UP โ 1 year DOWN
But this cycle is different so far:
๐ธ2 years UP โ and now potentially 2 years DOWN
๐ธThat is the real signal on the 12-month chart.
๐ธIf $BTC closes 2026 as a red yearly candle and fails to regain a bullish yearly structure,
Then we cannot ignore the message:
๐ธThe classic cycle may be changing.
๐ธBy December 2026, the chart will answer the question:
๐ธIs $BTC still following the old 4-year rhythmโฆ
๐ธOr is this the first real confirmation that this time is different?
My Stance:
๐ธ 4 Year cycle is still Intact.
Structure > Hope < ONLY FEW ๐ง
๐ด Warsh is live right now first press conference as Fed Chair, and the whole market's holding its breath. Every word on rates moves $BTC and $XRP from here. ๐
$BTC $XRP $ETH
'$ETH monthly RSI hit its most oversold level on record!'
'$ETH monthly RSI just hit extreme oversold!'
Oh really? Okay. Then what about the fact that $ETH monthly RSI has NEVER been in the oversold territory?
๐ The market might be in an oversold condition IF the RSI shows a value of 30 or less on its scale ๐
That has never happened (yet)
$ETH RSI has been making Lower Highs & Lower Lows since 2017, so a descending Parallel Channel would fit well here.
IMO in H2 2026 $ETH RSI will reach oversold level for the first time ever and it will coincide with the bottom of the descending Parallel Channel ๐
Once that final capitulation is done, $ETH will start its multi-year Uptrend ๐
โ Bullish Trigger - breakout above the MA21
๐จEXTREMELY BAD SCENARIO IS SET FOR $BTC
The Bank of Japan will officially raise interest rates to 1.00% next week
For the FIRST TIME IN 36 YEARS rates will cross 1% mark
Bitcoin has dropped 30-40% every time BoJ raised rates
$40,000 per $BTC is the most optimistic scenario