ETH RSI hit 15 on june 5th. first time that's ever been recorded since tracking began in 2015. $1.12b in longs liquidated in 24 hours, 17-day ETF outflow streak at $308m/week, 50%+ of supply held at a loss. here's the problem with calling the bottom: 39.25m ETH (32% of supply) is staked and locked. panicked stakers can't sell instantly, they have to queue unstaking first. that creates a delayed second wave of sell pressure after the initial capitulation clears. RSI at 15 has never persisted and reversals always follow. but the unstaking queue means the bounce gets sold into by a cohort that couldn't sell during the crash itself. tradeable bounce, unreliable bottom.
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bitcoin exchange reserves sit at 2.7m BTC. schwab's conservative 1% allocation alone requires 2m BTC. that's 74% of all exchange-held supply absorbed by a single brokerage. ETF inflows are still running. miners are selling less post-halving. fidelity and merrill are building the same infrastructure. the sell side of this order book doesn't exist at these prices and the buy side hasn't even shown up yet.
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