Pradeep Dham

Tennis enthusiast. Interested in global macro investment strategies, FX, Fixed income and Equities ideas.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

In this market, you can probably have an IPO for Paul Simon's song 'You can call me Al', people will think he is talking about AI (Artificial Intelligence) 😂 @ParikPatelCFA

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

Over the last 5 years $HSY (Hersheys) has returned almost 2x compared to Bitcoin. Who would have thought ? Perhaps a lesson to continue to focus on ROIC and common sense investing.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@LukePreston687 Would love to hear some details about the inputs you use to project a vix spike.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@ZeeContrarian1 Thanks @ZeeContrarian1 , how high do you anticipate VIX will go before one starts shorting ? 27-28 level, mid 30s or higher. I understand it's very difficult to predict but your input will be invaluable.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt request your guidance 🙏

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

Planning to short Silver ? Currently (COT+CME Warehouse+Price Structure)
Signal: WATCH (Don't short yet)
Why ?: No weekly close below prior week low, Warehouse pressure elevated
Registered (oz): 114262775
Eligible (oz): 303898929
COT
OI (contracts): 244012
OI/Reg: 10.68

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

Buddha’s Bad Trade (Loss without Suffering)

One day, the Buddha decided to try trading.

He entered a position with clarity, patience, and perfect sizing
(or so the monks thought).

The market moved against him.
The loss was sizeable.

Red numbers. Sharp drawdown.
A real headache of a trade.

The monks panicked.

“How can the Awakened One lose money?”
“How can someone enlightened feel this pain?”

The Buddha looked at the screen, calm as ever, and said:

“The account feels pain, but the mind need not suffer.”

He did not curse the market.
He did not rewrite the story as unfair.
He did not identify the loss as me, mine, or failure.

There was a loss in the account,
but no collapse in the mind.

No revenge trade.
No self-blame.
No attachment to being right.

Just awareness.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

Silver behaves differently than stocks. Futures get 60/40 tax treatment & are marked-to-market at year-end, so traders can’t defer cap gains into January. No tax-driven January effect — price is all about leverage, liquidity & positioning.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

$BIL is usually a boring 1-3 month T-Bill ETF. Since it goes ex-dividend at the end of the month, it has a saw tooth chart. It dropped $0.3 overnight, trading around $91.3 as compared to prior close of $91.62. Free money or something else ?

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@ZeeContrarian1 Loved the statement: "But not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."

[Milton W Berg CFA @BergMilton]

https://t.co/DLmwNx0gBU

Long-Term S&P 500 Retail Trading Model: Performance Overview
The program alternates between a 100% long S&P 500 allocation and 100% in 90-day Treasury bills.
Since the initial 100% long position was established on October 21, 1957, the strategy executed 56 full round-trip trades—equivalent to one round trip every 1.21 years.
Annualized total return for the model is +17.2%. The S&P 500’s total return is +10.9% for the same period.
The maximum drawdown was -14.74% (from July 17 to October 9, 1998).
Average gain per long trade is +25.61%; average loss on long trades is -2.17%.
An initial investment of $10,000 on October 21, 1957 would have grown to $484,386,708.79 as of September 10, 2025.
The system incorporates more than 1,000 distinct market models and has accurately identified each major market low since 1957.
For example, one model model signaled a buy on October 21, 1957 one day before the S&P 500 bottomed after a -20.66% decline.
The buy signal is generated when all of these criteria are satisfied:
1. The S&P 500 posts its highest 5-day volume in the past 375 days within the prior 20 days.
2. S&P 500 closes at a new 60-day low.
3. S&P 500 drops at least -12% from its previous high.
4. 5-day net upside volume is -45% or weaker.
5. 5-day reverse advance/decline thrust of -0.35%.
This model has signaled on 10-21-1957, 6-26-1962, 9-20-2001, 12-24-2018, and 4-08-2025.
Maximum gains in the 12 months following signals have ranged from 19.09% (2001) to 37.13% (2018).
Sell signals are determined by trend reversals rather than data based models.
The model has been positioned 100% long since April 8, 2025.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@Wimbledon @iga_swiatek Happy for Iga, but sad to see Anisimova lose 6-0, 6-0. Reminded me of the 1988 French open final when Graf beat Zevereva 6-0, 6-0. That match lasted 64 points, this one was 79.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

Trump tariffs just took effect. If all countries were tariffed equally (they are not), they don't lose comparative advantage. So effectively it's a foreign consumption tax on US consumers. Ultimately, this will help reduce the budget deficit by a few hundred billions per year.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@gurgavin SVIX

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

Volatility Check: Is the $VIX About to Spike

The $VIX, which measures implied volatility on the S&P 500, is a reflection of demand for protection—i.e., how aggressively investors are hedging downside. Given today’s move, the index is now more than 10% below its all-time high—a fairly rare occurrence, especially considering the speed of the drop.

Now, if you’re calling for $VIX > 30 from here, you’re assuming people are just starting to hedge. But I think that’s unlikely. Hedge funds were reportedly de-risking at the fastest pace in history last week. So who’s left to buy expensive protection now, after the fact?

Compare this with the SVB crisis in 2023—when just a 3% drop sent the $VIX above 30. Back then, there wasn’t a 10% cushion already priced in. With only a small move down, the market still had room to crash, and volatility had room to spike. Uncertainty was high, and no one knew what was next—that’s when people panic-hedge.

That’s not the setup we have now. The elephant is already in the room—and everyone sees it. The market has absorbed the shock. So while the fear is real, it’s not mysterious.

Conclusion:
I find it hard to see $VIX futures (especially May contracts) hitting 30 on this move. The surprise is gone. Trump’s tariffs may rattle markets, but they’re not uncharted territory. In fact, the whole thing feels more like theater—a way to “negotiate the size of the elephant” now that everyone sees it.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@ZeeContrarian1 I like $ZIM but had to sell as I was holding in a traditional IRA and foreign tax withholding makes holding this stock complicated in tax deferred accounts like traditional IRA. May reconsider entering it on 3/24 when it goes ex-dividend.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@ZeeContrarian1 Nice write up. How about buying SVIX after VIX goes above 30 ? (Not buying all at once but progressively).

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@RJB_Financial $HSY is back below 180 :( . Though I am bullish in 2025 -> Better Cocoa crop expected in 2025 (lowers input cost for $HSY), competitive dividend in a falling interest rate environment and good ROIC.

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@T_Castelluccio Back of the napkin calculation: 90% for Gov brings in 150 billion. Current Market cap of ordinary shares (10%) of $FNMA + $FMCC is 2.5 Billion approx. This 10% should be worth 16.6 Billion (approx 6x-6.5x). $FNMA can therefore reach $8 to $9 (simplistic view)

[Pradeep Dham @DhamPradeep]

@nicosintichakis @stephmase22 @dlauer @SECGov It's a 2015 article.