Investors are flocking to startups making semiconductors and components to run AI more efficiently, minting high valuations for businesses looking to compete with Nvidia and other stalwarts.
Next up: Ayar Labs.
Read more: https://t.co/phQrV0EDpM
Fear is building beneath the market’s surface:
The Fear & Greed Index is now down to 24.8, the lowest since early April.
This metric is now below the 30-point threshold, signaling "Extreme Fear" among investors.
The reading comes despite the S&P 500 sitting just -3.7% below its all-time high.
By comparison, the index bottomed at 5.8 points on March 30th and 5.2 points in November 2024.
This comes as the 5-day average put-to-call ratio is up to 0.84, the highest since the 2nd week of April and above the levels seen between July 2025 and January 2026.
Keep watching sentiment.
Druckenmiller's advice to young people who want to get into finance:
"if they're going in it for the money, they should go elsewhere."
"there's too many people in the business like me that just love the game and the passion. and they're not going to be able to outwork the people that are passionate."
"and it's not a fun game if you're losing."
the people who survive long enough to compound real returns are the ones who genuinely enjoy the research, the building, the debugging at 2 AM. if you're only here for the P&L, the first extended drawdown will end you.
Average US family health insurance premium...
1999: $6k
2003: $9k
2007: $12k
2011: $15k
2015: $18k
2019: $21k
2023: $24k
2025: $27k
That's a 365% increase since 1999 (6.1% per year).
(Note: US CPI inflation has increased 2.6%/year)
Stock market leverage in Asia is beginning to crack:
Stock trade defaults reported by securities firms in Taiwan rose to $62 million so far in June, the highest monthly total since data began in 2019.
A stock trade default occurs when investors who bought shares on margin fail to pay for those purchases, or when sellers fail to deliver the shares required to settle the trade.
Trade defaults have soared +300% over the last 2 months and now exceed the 2021 record by ~20%.
This comes as margin purchases have surged +160% over the last 12 months, to $19 billion, close to the all-time high set just before the 2000 Dot-Com crash.
By comparison, margin debt has risen +94% in South Korea over the same period compared to +50% in the final 12 months of the Dot-Com bubble.
Market leverage is out of control.
Tech has a hard on for trying to replace physicians.
Wrong target.
Replace the 19 layers between the physician and the paycheck.
That’s where the bodies are buried.
$NFLX is currently having its worst losing stretch in its entire 24 year history, being down 9 of the last 10 months.
Next major supports below at $75ish (prior lows), and $70ish (2021 prior ATH peak).
Like $MSFT and $META, these laggards will have their moment eventually right?
Lapis lazuli: easily the most historically significant gemstone
Found mainly in Afghanistan, this deep blue stone adorned royal tombs and was ground into ultramarine, one of history's most valuable pigments
I am grateful to be alive after getting caught in a flash flooding event on I 35 near Waco. Look how fast the water was coming over this retaining wall. I am so thankful that retaining wall held up otherwise this situation could've been a horrible tragedy. There were many of us literally trapped on I 35. I am so thankful for the first responders who came out.
I want to introduce you to Steve. He’s 83. His wife died a few months ago and he comes to this lodge in Spring Mill, Indiana and draws. He taught art in Terre Haute, IN his whole life. He also did courtroom sketches in court cases. In the comments I’ll share some pics from his sketchbook. He was excited when I said I was going to share his sketches with the world.