Dick Schefer

Economista filtrando lo relevante del ruido financiero diario.
Economist selecting relevant finance news from daily noise.
Retweets not endorsements.

[Ole Peters @ole_b_peters]

I asked chatGPT: is ergodicity economics right-wing?

Here is what it said, and I agree that it’s neither right nor left:

Ergodicity economics is neither right-wing nor left-wing. It’s a scientific framework for understanding decisions under uncertainty by focusing on how outcomes unfold over time, rather than on averages across hypothetical possibilities.

Some of its conclusions can support traditionally left-leaning policies (such as social insurance and reducing extreme inequality), because avoiding ruin and sharing risk can improve long-term growth.

Other conclusions align with traditionally right-leaning ideas (such as entrepreneurship, investment, and the importance of incentives), because wealth creation depends on sustained growth and compounding.

The key point is that ergodicity economics does not start from political values like equality or liberty. It starts from a mathematical question:

How do people’s fortunes evolve through time?

The political implications depend on the specific situation being analysed.

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

To conclude that thought, if the US economy continues to pick up momentum—even booms—while inflation slips to 0-1% or below during the next few years, as we believe is likely, Kevin Warsh’s Fed will not stand in the way. The Fed is shifting from fighting growth to encouraging it.

[Buenos Aires Herald @BAHeraldcom]

Government authorizes up to US$5 billion in borrowing under foreign jurisdiction

Decree allows loan agreements with international lenders to fall under New York courts while shielding Central Bank reserves and other state assets from potential seizure
https://t.co/Dpxyq7HUPt

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Goldman: "valuations of AI-related stocks are now high even relative to our optimistic views regarding the economic value that is likely to be created by AI over the next decade, so it is getting harder to justify further large gains."

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

@MarcosGallacher @carod2015 Unfold, Marcos

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

Lo fiscal no es una función fe la CNV

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

Vuelta a la edad de piedra

[Juan Pablo Marino @jpmarino79]

🚨🚨🚨 LA CNV SUSPENDE LOS FONDOS QUE INVIERTEN EN WALL STREET Y OTROS ACTIVOS DEL EXTERIOR

🔹 Suspendió de forma transitoria la creación de nuevos FCI para inversores calificados que destinen más del 25% de su cartera a activos extranjeros.

🔹 También quedaron suspendidas las nuevas suscripciones en los fondos de este tipo que ya existen.

🔹 La explicación oficial es la revisión del “costo fiscal” que generan estos vehículos de inversión.

🔹 La medida ya entró en vigencia tras su publicación en el Boletín Oficial.

[Nadin Argañaraz @NadinArganaraz]

*Primeros cinco meses de 2026: descensos porcentuales reales interanuales del 12,0% del superávit primario y caída real del 25,2% del superávit financiero. Sin los ingresos por privatizaciones, el superávit primario hubiese caído un 24,0% real y el financiero hubiese bajado un 58,0% real*
al analizar lo sucedido en los primeros cinco meses de 2026 Los ingresos totales tuvieron una variación real interanual negativa de 4,3%. Esto obedece a que los ingresos tributarios tuvieron un descenso en términos reales del 6,1% y los no tributarios subieron un 19,4% real interanual.
El gasto primario, por su parte, registró un descenso real interanual del 3,1%.
Como resultado, el superávit primario de los primeros cinco meses de 2025 de $9.729.836 millones en $ constantes de mayo 2026, se transformó en un superávit primario de $8.558.073 millones (baja real del 12,0 %). Al excluir los ingresos por la privatización, el superávit primario es de $7.398.894 millones, con un descenso real interanual del 24,0%.
El gasto en intereses (excluyendo el pago de intereses capitalizados registrados por debajo de la línea) bajó 4,5% en términos reales interanuales. En efecto, el superávit financiero de $3.543.118 millones de los primeros cinco meses de 2025 se transformó en un superávit de $2.648.854 millones en 2026, determinando una baja real interanual del 25,2%. Sin embargo, al excluir los ingresos por privatización, el superávit financiero desciende hasta los $1.489.675 millones, lo que implica un descenso del 58,0% en términos reales interanuales.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said almost nothing about things the markets most wanted to understand on Wednesday https://t.co/g55iP7STwH

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

Equity Index funds need to sell present holdings fo fund their participation in the IPOs

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

D8h't blame the Fed this once.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Kevin Hassett tells CNBC the Fed can still cut rates

"This is a supply side job number, which means you can have growth and low inflation. And so this is a kind of story that suggests that the Fed shouldn't hike rates. It shouldn't at all. And it'll have room as it watches the numbers to cut rates."

[Only In Boston @OnlyInBOS]

Most people walk right by it.

The Domingo Faustino Sarmiento statue on Commonwealth Avenue honors the man who built Argentina’s public education system after being inspired by Massachusetts education reform.

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

The equity risk premium of the S&P500 stands at 1% well beloy its 10 year average of 3.1%

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

https://t.co/WgcI6tsyL2

[Tipswatch @TipsWatch]

As I predicted, today's 10-year TIPS reopening auction got "interesting." The real yield of 2.169% was above secondary market trading and the when-issued prediction of 2.15%. Still, a good result for investors. https://t.co/LjcXLUPzdL

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

@TipsWatch Yes

[Tipswatch @TipsWatch]

When longer-term real yields rise for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, is it time to attack the top end of a TIPS ladder? Here is what I did last week ... https://t.co/CKJdaFYu8F

[comandobaltasar. @oskyblack]

@NadinArganaraz En términos de poder adquisitivo es imposible.. menos si consideramos quitas de subsidio en energía y transportes y remedios q el
PAMI cubría y hoy no cubre.

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

@NieveJuancito @rpeker La relacion UVA a m² ea buena.

[Dick Schefer @DickSchefer]

@lopez_mart24322 @carod2015 @JMilei Para eso son