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[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

Anticipating Price Action on Stocks with Alternate Cashless Warrants

As alternate cashless warrants become more prevalent, we felt it was necessary to provide a more in depth explainer on what kind of price action to expect.

Alternate cashless warrants are fast becoming a go-to tool for desperate nano-cap companies seeking cash. These deals let warrant holders receive extra shares without any cash payment. Initially, the warrants come with a 1–3× multiplier. However, if the stock dips, reset clauses kick in—lowering the exercise price to the lowest recent VWAP (with a set floor) and can often boost the multiplier up to 10–30× of the original amount.

The result? A potential death spiral dilution effect.

We dissect the timeline into 3 distinct phases:

• Phase 0: Before any offering with cashless warrants, the stock might slowly decline if the market anticipates possible offering with cashless warrants.

• Phase 1: The announcement of an offering with alternate cashless warrants triggers an immediate price drop. However, since the cashless warrants still require shareholder approval in most cases, there can be technical bounces during this phase as traders wait for more clarity (e.g. if approvals are delayed).

• Phase 2: Once approval is in place (often coupled with a reverse split), the reset clauses activate. For example, AEON/ACON saw up to >9M extra shares hit the market—pushing the price down dramatically (up to a 95% drop).

• Phase 3: After the heavy selling finishes, the stock may experience a technical bounce as it overshoots to new equilibrium levels.

Understanding these phases and clearly delineating their start and finish can offer opportunities for both longs and shorts.

Full blog post linked here: https://t.co/48dTUXgZpE

List of current tickers and their current phases:

Phase 1 (warrants pending approval/reset/registration):

GNLN, PSTV, ZCAR, STSS, RNAZ, PTPI, SUNE, LGMK, HCTI, EFSH, DGLY, FMTO, APDN, AGMH, HEPA, RSLS

Phase 2 (active selling of cashless warrants):

SPGC, ICON, NVNI, ACON

Phase 3 (selling complete):

AEON, GCTK, REVB, RIME, UOKA, HMR (MGOL)

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

After $WOK, $INHD, $PAVS, $OCG, it's clear that the new way to steal American investors' money is hammering a unrestricted ATM to death regardless of share price and siphoning the cash.

NASDAQ preemptive halts only changed their methods.

Expecting to more Chinese ATM liquidations in the future.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

At least make more than $7000 if you are going to potentially commit crime.

[Stomping_llama @stomping_llama]

$BINI there it is - the "activist investor" started selling the minute the stock resumed from the halt caused by his PR about seeking majority stake, "to mitigate the risk of adverse price movements in the Common Stock."

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

Time to learn crypto bros

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

Welcome to the jungle.

DM us and we can give you the map.

[Robert Leshner @rleshner]

I’ve just seen LQR House’s prospectus supplement that was publicly filed today.

I disagree with what LQR House is doing (selling shares) with respect to the ATM offering, which I don't think is productive, and I’m consulting with lawyers.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

$PCSA Pro tip

If they have a DRS (draft registration statement) show up after the S-1 is filed, it means the filing has been prepared well ahead of time.

The DRS is confidential and will only show up retroactively when the S-1 is filed.

[dEGenTrades 😈 @thestonknewb]

$PCSA Round trip back to .25 🤣

Dont know how they pulled this off S-1 less then week old no effectiveness..
Must have requested expedited approval.. “request for acceleration” well know tomorrow 👌🏻

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

@gkadar31 @OneArsenal2 @learningdatruth $DGLY meeting on April 1, $PTPI on April 10

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

@thestonknewb @Nasdaq Prob at least a year til they figure it out.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

Anticipating Price Action on Stocks with Alternate Cashless Warrants

As alternate cashless warrants become more prevalent, we felt it was necessary to provide a more in depth explainer on what kind of price action to expect.

Alternate cashless warrants are fast becoming a go-to tool for desperate nano-cap companies seeking cash. These deals let warrant holders receive extra shares without any cash payment. Initially, the warrants come with a 1–3× multiplier. However, if the stock dips, reset clauses kick in—lowering the exercise price to the lowest recent VWAP (with a set floor) and can often boost the multiplier up to 10–30× of the original amount.

The result? A potential death spiral dilution effect.

We dissect the timeline into 3 distinct phases:

• Phase 0: Before any offering with cashless warrants, the stock might slowly decline if the market anticipates possible offering with cashless warrants.

• Phase 1: The announcement of an offering with alternate cashless warrants triggers an immediate price drop. However, since the cashless warrants still require shareholder approval in most cases, there can be technical bounces during this phase as traders wait for more clarity (e.g. if approvals are delayed).

• Phase 2: Once approval is in place (often coupled with a reverse split), the reset clauses activate. For example, AEON/ACON saw up to >9M extra shares hit the market—pushing the price down dramatically (up to a 95% drop).

• Phase 3: After the heavy selling finishes, the stock may experience a technical bounce as it overshoots to new equilibrium levels.

Understanding these phases and clearly delineating their start and finish can offer opportunities for both longs and shorts.

Full blog post linked here: https://t.co/48dTUXgZpE

List of current tickers and their current phases:

Phase 1 (warrants pending approval/reset/registration):

GNLN, PSTV, ZCAR, STSS, RNAZ, PTPI, SUNE, LGMK, HCTI, EFSH, DGLY, FMTO, APDN, AGMH, HEPA, RSLS

Phase 2 (active selling of cashless warrants):

SPGC, ICON, NVNI, ACON

Phase 3 (selling complete):

AEON, GCTK, REVB, RIME, UOKA, HMR (MGOL)

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

@OddDiligence This tweet may need to be revisited tomorrow. $RAIN

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

$XTIA ATM, Convert Pref, RS, Offering same day.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

$XTIA would be prophetic if the next reverse split happened on the exact 5 year anniversary of 2020 RS for a repeat.

[EternaLEnVy @EternaLEnVy1991]

Gambler > Alchemist?

2M goal met half a year early.

Thanks to @wallstreetbets for blowing up that tweet it helped my mentors find me.

This is why I always continue to be public about my "crazy" ideas. Always comes back to me in a unexpected overwhelmingly positive way (got more eyes on me in DotA 2 to help find a team/popularity), finding a mentor in trading. Also motivates me and feels great in the end when I'm right and ur all wrong.

I did not want to post my PnL curve untill it was stable, was a tough journey to prolonged consistency. Been over 2 months no daily DD more than 4%. No intraday DD more than 5%. Current total PnL at 2.28M. Curve starts from Dec 2023 till now.

Why I started trading:

In mid 2022 my parents fell under a scam which would result in them losing half their house that took half their lifetime to pay off. They ended up taking on many lawyer fees and a 800K CAD debt. I was not told this till mid 2023 as they did not think I was in a financial position to help them. I retroactively understood why they were so sad all the time and so much more stressed. I strongly believe that had I done better in DotA or with my finances, they would not have done stupid deals and gotten scammed because they would have seeked me for financial advice instead.

I was extremely angry at myself. Three people I knew since childhood were worth multi 8 figs and even 9. There had to be a way out for me too.

Unless I won multiple TIs or became as popular as @Gorgc there really wasn't a way to do it through DotA. The odds were also too low as only a handful of people in that field could make that amount of money.

I was convinced I had to quit the career I spent a decade on. I knew that top tier gamers were extremely good at poker and I heard poker was similar to trading. I was convinced by the path of @brax10 and @BrianLeeTrades that trading > poker.

All the stories I hear about trading talks about how most of the top tier traders took 3 years, 5 years, even 7 years to make it. I did not have that time. I'm old, my parents are even older, and I needed to settle my career so I could start a family of my own. I saw that @Steven1_994 made 500K first year and 2M by 2nd year as a trash Starcraft 2 player and was like 19 years old or some shit. This goat became my goal.

I quit DotA 2 and placed my first trade mid July 2023. I told my girlfriend that I would spend one hour with her a day, I'm not celebrating anything including her birthday, and our anniversary and we will retroactively celebrate it later once I'm profitable, and I would only leave my house to be with family on holidays.

We stuck it out as planned. Now 1.5 years later it has all worked out in the end. Last two months we celebrated our Anniversary / her birthday at least 8 times at $500-2K restaurants. I give my parents a monthly allowance of 6K. I wanted to be Santa Claus so I bought a twitch mod an anime figurine. And maybe I'll play Metaphor:refantazio and that will be the first game I've played since DotA 2.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

Day 1 without Gary Gensler

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

We would estimate their warrant paper value could be somewhere between $400m to $1B based on simple assumptions. $350m is minimum based on what's disclosed publicly which is likely understated.

Guess it took 400% warrant coverage for some people to start asking the hard questions.

Small caps may see some less volatility if they are doing less of these deals.

@Biohazard3737

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

@kelanfar $DRUG imagine not paying $500k for a MD to long at $20 like these guys

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

$CLEU - $UPC

$CTNT - $TWG

$HKIT - $RCON

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

@Newguy10828 It does not mean they are diluting that day. It is the assumed shares that could be issued if they were diluting.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

$TNON

Looks like they decided to take people's houses today.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

$SNGX truth is there is a whale fund out there just taking both retail shorts and longs lunch money on these.

No clue why they do it at their size due to the regulatory risk but the frequency has only increased last year.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

$QXO It was dilution yes but the PIPE financing was known well in advance before the merger even closed. It was just that none of the shares issued was tradable until the S-3ASR was filed. The financing was done at $9 avg so once those guys can sell some took profit and dropped it to $10. Now it is essentially a giant SPAC with $5B cash and people’s trust in Brad Jacob.

[Dilution Tracker @DilutionTracker]

Notable Dilution Update 08/30

Offering
$AISP $8m @ $2.78 w/ 100% wrt cov
$EKSO $6m @ $1 w/ 100% wrt cov
$RR $21m @ $1.35 w/ 100% wrt cov
$BCDA $2.4m @ $3 w/ 100% wrt cov
$VTAK $3.1m @ $1 w/ 300% wrt cov
$BTTR 1-A filed
$APVO S-1 filed

PIPE
$STI $4m @ $0.33 w/ 300% wrt cov, reset clause
$APLD $50m conv pref @ $7
$RETO $19m @ $1.38

ATM
$PRSO $1.4m
$CANF $9m
$WWR $8m
$AQMS $30m
$TNXP upsized to $150m, 82m shares issued @ $0.43 avg so far

Shelf
$ISPO $50m

Misc
$MULN latest os 158.9m