Hayden Dimes

[Hayden Dimes @DimesHayden]

The acceleration in inflation in Australia has been widespread. Though some inflation from tradable goods will likely slow over the coming year, the higher inflation outlook is clear. The RBA will now almost certainly need to adjust its forward guidance.

[Hayden Dimes @DimesHayden]

A likely increase in the deficit reflects the automatic stabilisers in action and additional discretionary fiscal support, which the economy needs during these tough lockdowns. This is how fiscal policy is meant to operate.

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

The impact on the economy of lockdowns and additional fiscal support is likely to increase Australia's fiscal #deficit in 2021-22 from $106.6bn to somewhere around $130–140bn. #ausecon @DimesHayden @DavidPlank12

[Hayden Dimes @DimesHayden]

@SHamiltonian Seriously unbelievable you waited this long pal. A Big Mac is hard to beat.

[Hayden Dimes @DimesHayden]

The government’s fiscal strategy in phase 1 was to focus sharply on promoting jobs and growth until the unemployment rate is ‘comfortably back under 6 per cent’ before then restoring the fiscal position. Expect a growing focus on what ‘comfortably’ means after the drop to 5.8%

[Josh Frydenberg @JoshFrydenberg]

The Australian economy has again shown its remarkable resilience, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.8%, substantially beating market expectations.

The months ahead will be challenging but Australians can look to their future with confidence. @ScottMorrisonMP @SenatorCash

[Hayden Dimes @DimesHayden]

As fiscal stimulus subsides, the approach to interstate border closures will matter a lot more for some states economic growth. #ausecon

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

#ANZ’s Stateometer: Continued recovery from the COVID-19 recession led to above-trend growth in NSW, WA & the ACT. Most states saw economic recovery accelerate in Q4, and economic growth outside capital cities have outperformed. @adelaidetimbrel @mbansi @cfbirch #ausecon #ausbiz

[Hayden Dimes @DimesHayden]

In 2021, potentially the biggest risk for financial markets is if policy stimulus starts to get pulled sooner than expected, as economies grow strongly with vaccines being rolled out.

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Our latest #ANZ Research Quarterly is out. Registered ANZ Live clients can read the full report at https://t.co/La13Vt3rUf

[Hayden Dimes @DimesHayden]

@SHamiltonian @danielascur @Glengoyne I think you need to swish in your mouth longer pal. Don’t hesitate to reach out for tips

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Though there has been a general improvement in Australia's high frequency data over the last fortnight, there are still signs the labour market is fragile. #ausecon #jobs @DimesHayden @cfbirch

[Hayden Dimes @DimesHayden]

Some of the economic damage from this crisis has still not become clear in the data. A key question for economies is how many businesses permanently close through this and therefore how many jobs permanently disappear. This estimate for the US US is very worrying.

[David Scutt @Scutty]

Heard a few people suggest unemployment may start to accelerate again from July given the payrolls recovery has started rolling over. This chart from @ANZ_Research bolsters that view #ausbiz #auspol

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Australia is likely to experience another strong #trade surplus for June after preliminary data showed a strong rise in goods #exports as China’s demand continues to grow. #ausecon @DimesHayden @DavidPlank12

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Melbourne's COVID-19 spike has affected the movements of Victorians but elsewhere Australia's easing restrictions and virus containment have allowed restaurant activity to recover faster than is the case globally. #ausecon #ausretail @DimesHayden

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ Australian Macro Weekly: #RBA Governor flags an eventual review of the monetary policy implementation framework. Some early evidence that Melbourne's COVID-19 spike is impacting sentiment. #ausecon #auspol @DavidPlank12 @DimesHayden

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Australia's headline #inflation is expected to slow sharply in Q1, but core inflation is likely to hold up for now. #RBA policy is already positioned for the prospect of weak inflation later this year. #ausecon #auspol @DimesHayden @DavidPlank12

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

ANZ Housing Search Index (HSI) suggests a fall in the level of #houseprices could come as early as this month. #ausecon @DimesHayden @felicity_emmett

[ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research]

Australians appear to have embraced working from home and staying home, with foot and road traffic sharply down. #ausecon #covid19 @DimesHayden @DavidPlank12