May Recap - The Nightmare Month💥
Stocks traded:
$XNDU $GTLB $CYPH $CRML $SRTA $SKM $GH $BULL $CORZ $CRCL $NVTS $RUN $MP $CCJ $PL $SOUN $AOSL $AAOI $EOSE $ARRY $AFRM* $SLNH $GLXY $BW
* Still holding.
Also in $PURR & $BLDP from prior month.
Let's see what June brings.
That is the number one thing I look at. If a stock has choppy action I don’t want to do anything with it. Linearity is most important if you want to make money with low risk.
I am half way through the new Market Wizards book, and few things stand out insane work ethics, self leadership, self belief bordering on delusion and ability to go deep once they found setup ideas.
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The foundation of risk management is simple: never let small losses become large losses. Preventing large losses is what keeps you in the game long enough to catch the big winners.
Think back to all the stocks that helped push the market higher from 4/8 to 6/1:
$SNDK $MU $INTC $ARM $DELL $AMD $GOOGL $MRVL $AAPL and dozens of others.
Now show me the clean bases they've built since then.
Do they look ready to lead the market meaningfully higher right now?
And people are surprised things are choppy?
This is exactly why so many newer traders struggle. They forget that consolidation is part of the process. Stocks rarely go straight up forever. Before another sustained advance can occur, leaders often need time to digest gains, shake out weak hands, and build tight 3–7+ week bases.
Instead, many traders try to force themselves back in before that process has played out. Patience isn't always exciting, but it's often where the edge comes from.
Nick just described my current situation.
* April 2025 - March 2026 → triple digit return (first time).
* Q1-2026 → $SPX down -7.3% while I kept my account small green.
* April → outperforming $SPX by double digit.
* May → out of sync, awful trading, on tilt → negative YTD.
The market environment is always subtly changing and you want to get in sync with it. When I am I try to protect that feeling at all costs. Sometimes I get out of sync even in a good market.
Maybe I keep trying to trade a group too long before realizing it hasn’t been in favor. I’m late on rotation so make some sloppy buys to catch up… then market pulls back and stops me out.
That pullback is probably the great entry but I’m not going to buy because I just got stopped out from chasing. And the only reason I chased is because weeks ago I did and it worked. If I didn’t chase I would have missed the other trades.
Now I’m out of sync. It’s a bad spot to be in and my priority becomes getting back in sync.
The wrong way to go about it is to keep placing sloppy trades focusing on getting my account back to highs. Sloppy random trades are going to give sloppy random results and at the point you can start to spiral or just stay stuck.
The right way to go about it is to slow down wait for top tier entries or don’t take it at all. If any position has been frustrating and taking up mental space get rid of it.
Last year I felt out of sync so just blew out all my positions to refresh and think clearly from scratch.
To get back into a rhythm you have to slow down and be intentional with your decisions. It’s easy to get stuck feeling behind and in a rush to catch up but trading from that pov you are at a disadvantage before you even place a trade.
Something I cannot quite understand
Why people take losing trades personally
The markets don't know you. They have no idea who you are. They could care less what your hopes, fears and aspirations are. The markets are totally cold. Unfeeling
So why take a losing trade personally
Probably because you have misplaced assumptions and expectations. You assume the market cares about you enough to offer a profit. Your expectations are falsely placed
When I enter a trade I expect it to be a loser. I assume it will be a loser. This way I take risk management seriously
I know my trading stats. Over 200 trades I can come within a 10% on my estimate of ROR, win rate, PF, etc
But on any given trade or series of trades I do not have a clue. I may think I know where a market is going, but in reality I have no idea
So why would I take a loss personally. A trade is nothing more than a datum point in a series of data points subject to random probability theory. A loss is not a personal indictment
So true, watch fewer stocks.
From Gil Morales:
"I used to work with Bill O'Neil. He would have one screen, one monitor screen with about 20 quotes on it. Three index quotes and maybe 15 or so stock quotes, and they would all be in huge type maybe you know an inch and a half high on his screen and his whole take was that you didn't really need to look at so much. You only needed to know which were the big stocks, and he was very good at picking that out... so what I try to do is I try to look at as little as possible"
@TaPlot Some of the things that I've learned from you:
"No big red volume bars on right side of chart".
"Low risk entries".
"Trading near the danger zone".
"Volume drying up".
"RSNHBP".
"Do what works for YOU".
And many others.
Your volume indicator has helped me a lot. Thanks sir!
Putting profitability into perspective
Two things for all retail traders to remember
1. Less than two in 1,000 retail traders will put in huge numbers (100%-plus) year after year in the future
2. The very best professional investors/traders (the Stan Druckenmillers of the world) average only slightly more than 40% per year
Yet, some schmuck wants you to believe they did 300% last month
Stanley Druckenmiller:
“Life goes in streaks. And like a hitter in baseball, sometimes a money manager is seeing the ball and sometimes they're not.”
When investors are down, they tend to get aggressive to win it back. Druckenmiller: “One of my most important jobs as a money manager was to understand whether I was hot or cold...”
“In my opinion, when you're cold, you should be trying for bunts.”
From some of the responses I keep getting on my posts, and from the general market commentary on X. It seems as if everyone has burned it into their mind that every small dip/pullback is buyable. That behavior is usually rewarded early after a correction and follow through day. Not at the very start of a correction/consolidation.
And the COT data shows that Large Speculators are net short the Nasdaq — the highest short positioning since April 2023.
That period was followed by strong results:
April +0.04%
May +5.80%
June +6.59%
July +4.05%
@Peoplewish Looks like some crypto-related stocks are gaining some momentum / finishing their bases:
$COIN, $ASST, $SLNH, $CYPH (Zcash), $GLXY, $FIGR, $CRCL.