JUST IN: Fidelity reports that Bitcoin's 4 year cycle may be over 👀
Investors "believe we could be entering a supercycle...For reference, a supercycle in commodities in the 2000s spanned nearly a decade." 🚀
THE 4-YEAR CYCLE WAS A LIE!
THE REAL BULL MARKET ONLY STARTS NOW!
Even though the Bitcoin top happened exactly at the end of the “4-year cycle”, the data shows it was a lie and that there was another driver that coincidentally lined up at exactly the same time!
The uncomfortable truth in the data is that the halving didn’t drive the last 3 bull markets.
It only lined up perfectly with the real driver: global liquidity expansion.
See the chart below.
2013: Fed QE
2017: ECB, BOJ & China pumping
2020: The biggest QE in history
Bitcoin followed liquidity, not the halving clock.
Every time there was a global liquidity surge, the economy expanded, and this flowed into crypto!
The one metric that exposes this clearly: PMI.
PMI < 50 = contraction
PMI > 50 = recovery
PMI > 55 = Bitcoin liftoff
PMI > 60 = altcoin mania
That sequence matched every bull market.
The reason this cycle was so disappointing is that this cycle broke the pattern.
The halving happened…
Liquidity didn’t.
PMI never recovered.
The Fed was still draining money through QT.
That’s why 2025 was messy; the liquidity cycle never started.
But, this is all changing!
QT ended
Rates going down
Liquidity turning
PMI bottoming
Institutions flowing in via ETFs + DATS
And historically, we’ve never entered a bear market while liquidity is expanding.
So maybe the 4-year cycle didn’t “break.”
Maybe it never existed to begin with; it just happened to overlap with the liquidity cycle.
And maybe the real bull market starts now!
💥BREAKING:
🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP: “UNFORTUNATELY, IN RECENT YEARS THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SOLD TENS OF THOUSANDS OF $BTC THAT WOULD NOW BE WORTH BILLIONS.”
“FROM THIS DAY FORWARD, AMERICA WILL FOLLOW THE RULE EVERY BITCOINER KNOWS…”
“NEVER SELL YOUR BITCOIN.”
In my advisor role to governments, last week, two senior officials from two different countries referred to crypto as "the hard money". The realization is finally happening. 💪
This keeps me awake at night
If this trend line extends into 2025/6 we should see the biggest alt season of all time
While some believe altcoins will never compete with Bitcoin again
I see potential for the biggest liquidity rotation of all time