@dmartin_trading So you answered your own question, it's not about finding a short strategy it's about how to define a regime change and trading within that.
@ZorveX_Trader I would like this but what I'd like to know even more is how do you find true edge? Like I can run my agents all day long but I feel like a hip brick walls non-stop
I'm always trying to improve myself, I want others to come along for the ride, I've created a small paid group where we can all converge, I share daily lessons that took me from spending hundreds AI costs to starting to turn treading automated, I want to help you and I want others who have learned to help others as well.
https://t.co/XswbIbRlOb
Your Sharpe-4 backtest is probably lying to you.
Tested a strategy this week that looked perfect:
- Sharpe 4+
- PSR = 1.00
- Smooth equity curve
- 1400+ trades
In reality, it was one good week riding on 5% of trades. Here's the test that caught it โ
Three cheap upgrades that catch this every time:
1. Deflated Sharpe Ratio (Bailey & Lรณpez de Prado 2014) > raw Sharpe
2. Trade-concentration check (top 5% vs bottom 95%)
3. Slippage stress with VIX-scaled extra ticks per fill
Most retail backtests skip all three. That's why most retail backtests fail live.