The World At War

At a time when the world is at war with itself, our political discourse requires courage in the face of adversity.

[The World At War @DissentThe]

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[Daniel Epstein-O'Dowd @DODubhda]

A few thoughts on Trump, Iran & the MOU... 📰

Trump's about-turn on Iran and quick "negotiation" should be understood in nakedly political terms.

Trump is halfway through his second term, with tough midterms but a few months away. When you account for the last year of his Presidency really being about the 2028 Presidential race to succeed him - that leaves him with approximately 18 months to do anything.

This is not accounting for other events, such as Democrats winning the House and trying to impeach him (again) - all of which deflects time and energy from his agenda.

To prevent some of these events hijacking the remainder of his Presidency, Trump needs to improve his popularity, polling etc - traditionally quite difficult for a president to do before midterms.

So everything Trump is doing now is about short-term, clear "wins" - the investment from Qatar, etc and also cutting losses - I.e bringing the Iranian conflict to a quick end (however he can seemingly).

Post-midterms, he may have more capital or will to revisit the conflict, but that time is not now - from a purely political perspective.

Being aware of this and how increasingly tied Trump's hands will become, tells us all we need to know.

Furthermore, Trump will be no longer be on the ballot from 2028 onwards. His remaining years will be spent solidifying his legacy - whatever that may be.

"Defeating Iran" would take be a huge victory for that legacy, but one he may not be politically able to deliver. It could take increased investment or allocation of forces to deliver, which in the current climate would be crippling to Trump.

The West likes Quick Wars - and for Israel / Ukraine, this poses a real threat. Much of Trump's legacy has been built off 'no new wars', so he can ill-afford for a prolonged conflict in the Middle East to tarnish that.

This also brings us to why JD Vance is out in front on this. His constituency on the right is amongst the Carlsons and Kellys of this world, amongst the most vocal critics of the war. To preserve his 2028 pathway, he must prevent a challenge from this camp.

Whether Vance is the right 'heir' to Trump is an ancillary point, the point is that any Democrat will tear up as much of the second Trump Presidency (2024-2028) as they can.

For Trump, whether the GOP retains the White House will go a long way to determining his place in history.

So this isn't about Trump being a genius, this is about political power and legacy.

Unless Israel can offer short-term, 'cheap' wins against Iran or other common enemies - it will find its security bound to the political decisions of an American President about to embark on his farewell tour...

[Team DeSantis @TeamDeSantis]

HISTORIC win in the FREE state of Florida thanks to @RonDeSantisFL’s freedom-first policies.💪🏻🐊🔥

[Daniel Epstein-O'Dowd @DODubhda]

Shameful, but unsurprising, endorsement of 🇵🇸 terrorism by PBP - specifically that of Lion's Den, a terrorist conglomerate of sorts.

Emphasising the 3 IDF troops murdered, PBP welcome this "growing armed resistance" as the greatest threat to 🇮🇱 since 2002
https://t.co/MXJWWBLnWt

[Daniel Epstein-O'Dowd @DODubhda]

A truly worthwhile read from @llggeorgia on use of its terror proxies to enact revenge upon 🇮🇱

Far too often the West divorces the Iranian regime from its network of terror across the Middle East | @JewishChron
https://t.co/xPrmABv1oY

[Mark Dubowitz @mdubowitz]

Your reminder that most of Iran’s nuclear expansion occurred after Biden was elected and his abandonment of pressure.

[The World At War @DissentThe]

IRS Targeting Scandal, A Lesson In The Tyranny Of Big Government | @DODubhda https://t.co/vSIytz2Dxy

[The World At War @DissentThe]

IRS Targeting Scandal, A Lesson In The Tyranny Of Big Government | @DODubhda https://t.co/vSIytz2Dxy

[The World At War @DissentThe]

"Prepared to be the Galileo of our generation, the Author has laid bare the truth before us - it is up to us how we should act."

Book Review: 'Woke Racism: How A New Religion Has Betrayed Black America', by John McWhorter | @DODubhda https://t.co/UaDgHYVnQ5

[The World At War @DissentThe]

"Prepared to be the Galileo of our generation, the Author has laid bare the truth before us - it is up to us how we should act."

Book Review: 'Woke Racism: How A New Religion Has Betrayed Black America', by John McWhorter | @DODubhda https://t.co/UaDgHYVnQ5

[The World At War @DissentThe]

Make sure to subscribe to the Conservative Dissent on @substack, for all our Conservative content and new contributors to be unveiled in the weeks to come.

To subscribe click the link below:

⬇️⬇️⬇️
https://t.co/UrcYtidiSz

[The World At War @DissentThe]

A Piece Of Advice: Stop Making The EU An Electoral Issue | @DODubhda https://t.co/GVeMJZlqsa

[The World At War @DissentThe]

A Piece Of Advice: Stop Making The EU An Electoral Issue | @DODubhda https://t.co/GVeMJZlqsa

[The World At War @DissentThe]

"The EU is not a vote winner. Hell, when a referendum was last held on EU membership, Britain voted to leave!" | Latest from @DODubhda https://t.co/GVeMJZlqsa

[Daniel Epstein-O'Dowd @DODubhda]

"The cause of the EU is not aided by its configuration. A source of revival and rebirth for the middling, ineffectual and failed of European states, hostile to democratic ideals of transparency and accountability" | @DissentThe https://t.co/4OTpJt7FbR

[The World At War @DissentThe]

"The EU is not a vote winner. Hell, when a referendum was last held on EU membership, Britain voted to leave!" | Latest from @DODubhda https://t.co/GVeMJZlqsa

[Ron DeSantis @GovRonDeSantis]

Inflation is at a 40-year high of 8.5% due to federal policies of borrowing & printing money at unfathomable levels & bad energy policy, which is hurting Floridians.

Biden could unleash domestic energy production to provide relief. Instead, he is content watching people suffer.

[Daniel Epstein-O'Dowd @DODubhda]

"...the Gospel [of Marx] preaches fiscal equality of all, but as Orwell tells us “some animals are more equal than others” | @DissentThe https://t.co/aD6FX7aHiQ

[The World At War @DissentThe]

Socialism - The Economics of Envy, Failure & Misery | @DODubhda https://t.co/molveZEAvG

[Daniel Epstein-O'Dowd @DODubhda]

"The resources amassed for redistribution, are not redistributed - instead they stay firmly within the castle walls whilst the people break under oppression" | My latest thoughts in @DissentThe https://t.co/TdVtaROMTh