I am going to make a daily post with three of the most important things I am looking at to properly time a market dip.
1 - SPX divergence
2 - SVIX divergence
3 - Nasdaq breadth divergence
This is a road map of one of my primary plays during this uptrend. I posted the trades noted in real time in @Norseman1’s Discord where he has a room for folks to share their ideas. I’m looking to reload semis in the box (timing window, price not as important).
@tothemoonltd@Norseman1 Had made a lot of money and the risk had risen to a level I no longer cared to carry. I have tools I use to determine when that time is near.
The @Norseman1 Substack has quickly become a core part of my mental foundation to see clearly what is actually happening in the market. He gives more than I ever expected to his subscribers. I learn something daily from him and many others in the Discord.
This is a simple bull trend pullback, and $QQQ is still 5% higher over the last month after this pullback. It will be ok, as long as the regime map stays Risk-On, this is all buyable.
The $SPX "Structure" is currently a stealth Bull Market. +20.64% in 44 sessions (6316.91 to 7620.90). It received its first test Friday as they ALL eventually do. What happens in the next few sessions will tell us a lot about the next phase of the Bull Market. Not whether it's terminal — that's a conversation for structure deniers, which we have laid out in our Special Edition Newsletters Part I and II. The conversation should be what characteristics this Bull is displaying and what this might mean for forward returns. This is what we will be discussing in this weekend's letter, which will be out this afternoon entitled:
GRADE, DON’T GUESS: Newsletter Issue No: 56 June, 7th 2026.
@BowTiedLobster@LobsterFinance Just so your followers are clear, if the market rallies 10, 15, or 20% from here before a crash you will still be” right”? What if that crash is a year from now? Still right?
@BowTiedLobster@LobsterFinance Just so your followers are clear, if the market rallies 10, 15, or 20% from here before a crash you will still be” right”? What if that crash is a year from now? Still right?
Paid subs, I published an article discussing what I have learned from the bear market rally we are experiencing in equities in the past two months (and possibly longer).
I did not send it as an email as it is a theory and framework article. You can peruse it at your leisure.
@BowTiedLobster@LobsterFinance Not at all.
There are lots of ways to trade the market successfully. But trading today based on a market that you believe will arrive at some unknown point after the market rallies an unknown amount is not a sound one.
@BowTiedLobster The person who makes money is the one who trades the market in front of him, not the one that might come in the future.
Sitting sidelined from equities in bull runs prevents wealth accumulation, but more importantly encourages a mindset that is counter to winning long term.
@BowTiedLobster How long/much can the market rally before crashing through the lows? Will you claim victory if SPX rallies another 10% and knifes in the fall?
@LobsterFinance Just an FYI, went long on 3/31.
Was cautious as I thought we’d get some resistance at the 200. Was proven wrong on that but more than happy to change my mind. Have to listen when the market speaks. 😘
@LobsterFinance 😂 Is there a TLDR for why *I* am losing peoples money, lol. Since you’re a self declared genius maybe dumb it down a bit for the rest of us.
My experience suggests 🚨 when a person needs that many words to explain why they’ve been, and continue to be wrong.