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TD Power
#TDPOWERSYS
Most Powerful Growth Triggers:
1. Gas Turbine/Data Center Structural Boom:
As per Management this is the strongest segment with highest growth potential with OEM visibility till 2030 and Data centers moving toward captive power (off-grid dependency). Additional use cases are grid stabilization and synchronous condensers.
This matters as Data center plus AI capex is exploding globally and TDPS is positioned exactly in the power backbone layer and therefore is the primary long-term compounding engine.
2. Record Order Book plus Export Surge:
Q3 inflow: INR 6.56bn (All-time high)
+61% YoY
84% export mix
Core backlog doubled in 24 months
This matters as it gives Revenue visibility for multiple quarters and
Operating leverage kicks in with
strong execution runway.
The backlog growth of 120% vs FY24 is not normal, it signals a structural shift, not a cyclical bump.
3. Plant 3 Capacity Unlock:
This is an immediate earnings triggers with capacity already
operational from Dec 18.
Q4 target: ₹550-575cr/quarter
Q1 onward: ₹600cr/quarter
Peak throughput possible: ₹2,600–2,800cr
This matters as Capacity unlock leads to revenue acceleration and therefore FY27 raised guidance off ₹2,200+ crore (called conservative though) and also operating leverage improves margins too and therefore this is the near-term earnings acceleration trigger (FY26-FY27).
4. Export led FX Tailwind & Minimal Hedging:
FX gains expected from Q4 onward
79% export mix (9M)
Only 10% hedged
INR depreciation directly boosts bottom line
This matters as Revenue growth and currency tailwind means dual benefit and natural hedge via export dominance. If INR remains weak then earnings surprise likely.
5. FY27 conservative guidance (upgrade potential)
FY26: >₹1,800cr
FY27: ₹2,200+ cr (called “conservative”) and extremely high probability of upward revision
Management confidence unusually strong. If execution continues➡️ earnings upgrade cycle &
Earnings upgrades ➡️ stock rerating trigger.
6. New U.S. Gas Turbine Customer:
This is engineering order stage and conversion expected in weeks and
“Big forecast” for next year
Entry into new U.S. client deepens exposure to U.S. data center plus gas turbine capex cycle with repeat order potential too. This can materially expand export scale. This point is actually more important than it looks on surface level.
The U.S. gas turbine market is large, high-value, driven by data center + AI capex and dominated by established OEM ecosystems. If TD Power is supplying to a U.S. gas turbine OEM
Or entering directly into U.S. captive power ecosystem, it means:
- Technical credibility validated
- Global quality acceptance
- Compliance cleared
& That’s a brand upgrade moment.
7. Hydro Vertical Breakout (New Growth Leg)
Next year expected to be highest ever hydro revenue as refurbishment vertical becoming large with 2-3 year visibility.
This adds diversification as refurbishment means recurring business model and OEM-agnostic positioning means wider addressable market.
8. Gross Margin Sustainability (35%)
Copper price pass-through has been confirmed
Booked lower-price copper inventory
Similar margin profile across products
This Protects earnings quality despite commodity volatility and if combined with FX tailwind then it can lead to potential margin expansion.
Recent mgmt concall therefore indicates structural demand (not cyclical spike), capacity unlock, margin tailwinds, export leverage and order visibility till 2030 (gas turbine segment). If execution sustains, this combination becomes a multi-year earnings compounding story, not just a short-term capex play.