Dr. 🅰️ Killinger

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

$ASTS after building a model i find it useful to adjust inputs to where the NPV equals the current mp, and then see if those inputs make sense. to arrive at an NPV (including terminal value) = 94.50/shr, the avg monthly ARPU can't ever go above 1. is that realistic? i think not.

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

@KobeissiLetter He’s such a loser

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

$ASTS new ATH!

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

According to the New York Times, no oil tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire, based on Kpler data-TSI

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

🚨BREAKING: Iran has halted all oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli strikes on Lebanon, according to IRGC-linked Fars News Agency.

The pause comes after a brief reopening earlier in the day, when two oil tankers were allowed to pass with Iranian approval following the ceasefire, the news agency reported.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf releases a statement claiming that 3 clauses of their "10 point proposal" have been violated by the US and Israel.

Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says:

1. The first clause of the 10-point proposal has been violated regarding a ceasefire in Lebanon

2. The entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, was a "clear violation" of the clause prohibiting any further violation of Iran's airspace

3. The US' denial of Iran’s right to enrichment is a violation, which was included in sixth clause of the framework

"Now, the very 'workable basis on which to negotiate' has been openly and clearly violated, even before the negotiations began," he says.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN: TALKS WITH US DO NOT MEAN END OF WAR - IRANIAN MEDIA

[The Enforcer @ItsTheEnforcer]

So here’s the problem with the U.S. President’s claims of an Iran ceasefire…

1 - Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
2 - Iran is still firing missiles at Israel.
3 - Iran has not agreed to denuclearize.
4 - Iran persists with 10-point demand.

Nothing has changed at all 🤨

[Headquarters @HQNewsNow]

New analysis from @MeidasTouch details Trump's conflicting claims throughout his war in Iran:

Mar 3: “We won the war.”
Mar 7: “We defeated Iran.”
Mar 9: “We must attack Iran.”
Mar 9: “The war is ending almost completely, and very beautifully.”
Mar 11: “You never like to say too ⁠early you won. We won. In ​the first hour it was over.”
Mar 12: “We did win, but we haven’t won completely yet.”
Mar 13: “We won the war.”
Mar 14: “Please help us.”
Mar 15: “If you don’t help us, I will certainly remember it.”
Mar 16: “Actually, we don’t need any help at all.”
Mar 16: “I was just testing to see who’s listening to me.”
Mar 16: “If NATO doesn’t help, they will suffer something very bad.”
Mar 17: “We neither need nor want NATO’s help.”
Mar 17: “I don’t need Congressional approval to withdraw from NATO.”
Mar 18: “Our allies must cooperate in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.”
Mar 19: “US allies need to get a grip - step up and help open the Strait of Hormuz.”
Mar 20: “NATO are cowards.”
Mar 21: “The Strait of Hormuz must be protected by the countries that use it. We don’t use it, we don’t need to open it.”
Mar 22: “This is the last time. I will give Iran 48 hours. Open the strait”
Mar 22: “Iran is Dead”
Mar 23: “We had very good and productive talks with Iran.”
Mar 24: “We’re making progress.”
Mar 25: “They gave us a present and the present arrived today. And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. I’m not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize.”
Mar 26: “Make a deal, or we’ll just keep blowing them away.”
Mar 27: “We don’t have to be there for NATO.”
Mar 29: Claimed talks were progressing
Mar 30: “Open the Strait of Hormuz immediately, or face devastating consequences.”
Mar 31: Claimed a deal was “very close” and Iran would “do the right thing”
Apr 1: “We’ll see what happens very soon.”
Apr 3: “Something big is going to happen.”
Apr 4: Said Iran must comply “immediately” or face further consequences
Apr 5: “Open the fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
April 7: "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will."

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN SUPREME SECURITY COUNCIL WARNS "FINGERS ON THE TRIGGER" & ANY ENEMY MISTAKE WILL DRAW FULL FORCE RESPONSE; SAYS 10-POINT US PROPOSAL INCLUDES ACCEPTANCE OF URANIUM ENRICHMENT

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Let’s be perfectly clear…

If Trump agrees to these 10 points, Iran won.
They leveraged the Strait of Hormuz, and won.

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

@RepLuna So you support the following?

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

@realMeetKevin No way America agrees to Iran’s 10-point proposal. If they do then it’s is a massive loss for trump/usa and an insane victory for Iran.

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

$SPY $QQQ $IWM if reopening the strait is contingent on America agreeing to Iran’s demands in Iran’s 10-point plan then the strait will remain closed.

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

🚨 Statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council

📌 Full Text of the Statement of the Supreme National Security Council (Translated to English):

The enemy has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat in its dishonorable, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation. By the grace of the pure and sacred blood of the martyred leader of the Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Grand Ayatollah Imam Khamenei (peace be upon him), the measures of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (may God preserve him), the jihad and valor of the fighters of Islam on the fronts, and above all the historic, enduring, and epic presence of you, the dear nation, from the very first days of the war — Iran has achieved a great victory and forced criminal America to accept its own (Iran’s) 10-point plan, in which America has in principle committed to: guaranteeing non-aggression, continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of enrichment, removal of all primary and secondary sanctions, termination of all UN Security Council and Board of Governors resolutions, payment of reparations to Iran, withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and cessation of the war on all fronts including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon. We congratulate all the people of Iran on this victory and emphasize that until the details of this victory are finalized, steadfastness and prudence from officials and the preservation of unity and solidarity among the Iranian people remain essential.

Islamic Iran, together with the brave mujahideen of the resistance in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine, has over the past 40 days struck blows against the enemy that the historical memory of the world will never forget. Iran and the Axis of Resistance, as representatives of honor and humanity against the most savage enemies of mankind, have after a historic battle delivered an unforgettable lesson to them and have so thoroughly destroyed their forces, assets, infrastructure, and all political, economic, technological, and military capital that the enemy is now on the verge of collapse and disintegration, and sees no path forward but submission to the will of the great Iranian nation and the honorable Axis of Resistance. On the first day that Iran’s criminal enemies launched this unjust war, they imagined they would achieve full military dominance over Iran in a short time, and by creating political and social instability, force Iran into submission. They assumed Iran’s missile and drone fire would quickly be extinguished, and they did not believe Iran could mount such a powerful response beyond its own borders and across the entire region.

World Zionism had convinced the foolish American president that this war would finish off Iran, and that by eliminating this last bastion of humanity, they could thereafter freely commit any crime against anyone they wished. They dreamed of partitioning beloved Iran, plundering its oil and wealth, and ultimately leaving Iranians submerged in chaos, instability, and insecurity for long years to come.

The brave fighters of Islam and their courageous allies in the Axis of Resistance, though their hearts were wounded and shattered by the martyrdom of their Imam, relying on Almighty God and following the example of the Master of Martyrs, decided once and for all to deliver a historic lesson to these enemies, avenge all their past crimes, and create conditions in which the enemy would forever abandon any thought of aggression against beloved Iran and taste the full bitterness of humiliation and degradation before the great Iranian nation.

[CONTINUES BELOW]

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

$SPY $QQQ $IWM Three OPEC producers are now physically unable to export oil. This is not a risk premium on futures prices; this is the destruction of supply. systemic crisis is no longer a sub-pathway to monitor; it is the observable reality.

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

$SPY $QQQ $IWM The global energy supply chain is breaking. Kuwait declared force majeure and began cutting oil production, citing the "almost total absence" of ships in the Arabian Gulf. Iraq has cut 1.5 million barrels per day because it has run out of storage. The UAE, too.

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

@EvanAKilgore If it disgusts you then vote against it. Simply not voting means you’re showing indifference to and complicity of his actions.

[Dr. 🅰️ Killinger @DoctorKillinger]

@sama @carlquintanilla

[AverageDipBuyer @AverageDipBuyer]

$SoFi At this point, we’re just experiencing senseless selling.

• No exposure to tariffs
• No exposure to Iran or geopolitical commodity shocks
• No SaaS disruption risk
→ you cannot replicate a regulated national bank and a brand name with Claude

We’re trading near 2x TBV, while becoming more fee-based by the day.
Yet the stock trades at ~16x 2028 earnings (assuming management’s historically low-ball guidance).

Just wait until we trade at the same multiple, or anywhere near, $V or $MA. I’m convinced that’s where this FinTech is going.

This looks less like risk repricing and more like indiscriminate, macro-driven selling.

When positioning unwinds, fundamentals reassert themselves.

Soon enough, people will find out $SoFi is the safe haven in the midst of it all.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$SOFI five years ago:
• $18/share
• 1.9M members with ~$360M gross profit run-rate

$SOFI today:
• $18/share
• 13.7M members with ~$2.2B gross profit run-rate

Same price. Very different business.