Japan’s 2-year yield just gapped up more than 4% today.
This is starting to look like a breakaway move.
The market is effectively forcing the BOJ’s hand:
Japanese yields ↑
Oil ↑
Inflation pressure ↑
→ BOJ forced toward tighter policy
And this isn’t the long end anymore.
We are now seeing short-end government bond yields move like meme coins.
That should get everyone’s attention.
When the supposedly safest part of the financial system starts trading with this kind of volatility, something in the global rates regime is changing fast.
BREAKING: Crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve officially fall below 290 million barrels for the first time since 1982.
Inventories declined by another 3.7 million barrels last week, to 289.7 million barrels.
US oil reserves are at a fresh 40+ year low.
JGBs are tanking again. The yield on the 10-year is up to 2.95%, a twenty-year high, and the 30-year is at 4.13%, an all-time record high. This rise has caused gold to reverse earlier gains, but what's happening with JGBs and Treasuries is actually extremely bullish for gold.
It's not enough to yell "$10,000 gold" and "$200 silver" without facts, analysis and an explanation of market dynamics. This new interview gives you all three.
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Copper has been telling us all along that gold has some catching up to do.
This remains one of the most important divergences in markets today.
The lag is your friend.
https://t.co/dZ3nDsmGkI
BREAKING: China’s central bank officially added +20 tonnes of gold in July, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023.
This follows +15 tonnes and +10 tonnes acquired in June and May, respectively, and marks their 21st consecutive monthly increase in gold reserves.
Year-to-date, China has officially raised its gold reserves by +60 tonnes, bringing its total gold holdings up to a record 2,366 tonnes.
Meanwhile, China’s central bank has reportedly been moving more of its gold reserves from London to Hong Kong, signaling support for the city’s push to become a major global gold-trading hub.
The relocation is set to continue as Hong Kong launches a new gold-clearing system aimed at making the city a bigger center for global gold trading and pricing.
China’s appetite for gold remains incredibly strong.
US refiners have shifted away from Saudi oil:
US imports of Saudi Arabian crude fell to zero in July, marking the first full month without imports since 1985, according to preliminary US government data.
This marks a sharp reversal from March, when US refiners were purchasing more than 800,000 barrels of Saudi crude oil per day.
This comes as US refiners sought alternative supplies after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader Iran War-related disruptions pushed Middle Eastern crude prices higher.
As a result, Venezuela has emerged as the primary replacement, with US imports of its crude surging to ~600,000 barrels per day in July, up from just ~100,000 barrels per day at the start of the year.
Global oil trade flows are undergoing a historic shift.
Bob Prechter on Bitcoin:
"The downside potential... is very large."
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The poison pill strategy and what it means for Onterris both short term and the medium outlook for investors https://t.co/mzvjcetsAM #ONT, #VPA, #Annacoulling, #volumepriceanalysis,
Is $Path setting up a massive move? Read my step-by-step chart breakdown to see exactly how insiders run accumulation campaigns https://t.co/GITgLVmL59
Sometimes the best trading lessons come from the trades that don't work.
In the Elliott Wave Playbook, Trading Instructor Favio Poci breaks down a gold setup that failed—and explains why that's just as valuable as a winner.
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“History shows that presidents who intensify wars in pursuit of a way out,or to protect their own prestige or America’s reputation,descend a slippery slope. In Vietnam,Iraq and Afghanistan,they often did so reluctantly, in wars that could no longer be won” https://t.co/roHEZ2uMA7
You bailed out Japan because they will fuck Treasuries to save themselves from Oil priced in Yen, forcing the greatest deleveraging event of our lifetimes otherwise.