Geoffrey Gold

Media, markets, diplomacy, sports and musings.

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

Hizbullah MP Ali Fayyad: “The Turkish Ambassador Assured Me Turkey Supports Hizbullah’s Role in Lebanon; Turkey Says Syria Will Not Succumb to U.S.-Israeli Pressure to Confront Hizbullah.”

The remarks suggest Ankara is signaling continued political backing for Hizbullah’s role in Lebanon while rejecting efforts to pressure Syria into confronting the group.

[Eyal Yakoby @EYakoby]

BREAKING: President Trump praises Israel and Netanyahu.

“We've fought very well with Israel, a great relationship with Israel. Netanyahu is a warrior, and they should give him credit.”

[ايران اينترنشنال @IranIntl]

موسسه ریگان بر اساس نتایج یک نظرسنجی گزارش داد که تنها ۲۵ درصد از جمهوری‌خواهان حامی جنبش «ماگا» از دستیابی به یک توافق مذاکره‌شده با جمهوری اسلامی حمایت می‌کنند.
بر اساس نتایج این نظرسنجی، حامیان جنبش «ماگا» بیش از دو برابر بیشتر از گزینه توافق با جمهوری اسلامی، از تغییر حکومت در ایران حمایت می‌کنند.
این نظرسنجی نشان می‌دهد ۵۱ درصد از جمهوری‌خواهان حامی دونالد ترامپ، رییس‌جمهوری آمریکا، خواهان روی کار آمدن حکومتی جدید در ایران هستند، در حالی که تنها ۲۵ درصد از آنان از دستیابی به یک توافق مذاکره‌شده با تهران حمایت می‌کنند.
در میان همه جمهوری‌خواهان نیز ۵۰ درصد از تغییر حکومت در ایران حمایت کرده‌اند و ۲۵ درصد طرفدار راه‌حل دیپلماتیک و توافق با جمهوری اسلامی بوده‌اند.
در مقابل، ۵۲ درصد از دموکرات‌ها از مسیر دیپلماتیک و توافق حمایت کرده‌اند و ۲۵ درصد آنان از تغییر حکومت در ایران پشتیبانی کرده‌اند.
بر اساس این نظرسنجی، ۱۴ درصد از جمهوری‌خواهان حامی ماگا نیز گفته‌اند ترجیح می‌دهند جمهوری اسلامی در قدرت باقی بماند، اما توان اقتصادی و نظامی آن به شدت محدود شود.

https://t.co/lK8n8hbnWx

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

To be very clear: reality is very different from the rhetoric. The IDF takes extraordinary measures to mitigate civilian harm in Lebanon. In fact, as in Gaza, it employs more civilian harm mitigation measures than any military in past or current operations.

The IDF issues evacuation warnings through multiple channels including text messages, phone calls, voicemails, flyers, radio, television, and social media. It operates dedicated civilian harm mitigation cells, tracks civilian presence through drones, cell phone data, and other ISR capabilities, and uses rigorous targeting processes that include legal reviews and proportionality assessments for any planned strikes. Legal reviews at lowest tactical level, and with the ability (which happens often as well as command decisions not to strike based on all context) to override commander decisions, unlike any other military.

In southern Lebanon, these measures are particularly effective because civilians can move away from military objectives and active combat areas.

Even in Beirut, the IDF has repeatedly provided warnings identifying specific buildings that will be struck and when. The warnings have proven so reliable that Lebanese citizens and journalists have set up cameras in advance to record the strikes. When targeting Hezbollah senior leaders, command meetings, or other military objectives in densely populated areas such as Dahiyeh (the Hezbollah controlled neighborhood of Beirut), the IDF relies on precision-guided munitions, small diameter munition (warheads with less explosives), and other low collateral damage munitions, detailed intelligence, and other methods designed to limit collateral damage while achieving the legitimate military objective.

There is also no equivalency. Israel does not intentionally target civilians. Hezbollah is a U.S.-designated terrorist organization whose strategy includes deliberately attacking civilians. Hezbollah launches rockets, missiles, and drones at civilian communities in northern Israel (daily, despite any cease fires), targeting homes, schools, businesses, and civilian infrastructure.

One side conducts legal reviews, proportionality assessments, civilian warnings, and precision strikes against military objectives. The other is a international designated terrorist group that intentionally places military assets among civilians while deliberately targeting civilians.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Israeli PM Netanyahu says he ordered the IDF to strike Hezbollah "with force" following yesterday's attack that killed Lt. Col. Dor Gedalia Ben Shimhon and three other soldiers - calling it a blatant ceasefire violation.

The IDF hit over 80 terror targets, eliminated dozens of operatives, and struck Hezbollah command posts in the Bekaa Valley this morning.

Netanyahu: "Israel will not tolerate attacks on our soldiers or our territory and will exact a very heavy price from Hezbollah." He added Israel will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon as long as necessary to protect villages in the North.

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

🚨 CNN reports: The United States has conveyed a message to Iran stating that Israel will not escalate its strikes in Lebanon.

According to a source familiar with the matter, when asked whether the United States would provide such guarantees, the source said:
“Hezbollah violated the ceasefire. Israel agreed to let it go, and that message was conveyed to the Iranians. Hezbollah now needs to stop.”

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

Senior U.S. official to Reuters: Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire that will take effect at 4:00 p.m.

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

ISRAEL REFUSES UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE

Hezbollah launcher fires rockets toward IDF soldiers.

In response to Hezbollah’s repeated and blatant ceasefire violations, the IDF struck:

• 2 Hezbollah command centers in the Beqaa Valley
• 80+ terror targets in southern Lebanon
• Dozens of Hezbollah terrorists eliminated

Hezbollah violated the ceasefire. Israel responded.

[Hussain Abdul-Hussain @hahussain]

In a week, Lebanon will lose its sovereignty to Iran like it did to Assad in 1991 and to Hezbollah in 2008.

Only way out is for the Lebanese to “run forward” by latching their country to Israel with more than direct talks, just like Jordan did in 1970. It was Golda Meir that threatened to decimate Assad’s army if he invaded from the north (Assad was defense minister). This is how Jordan rid itself of Palestinian militias. Lebanon should do in 2026 what Jordan did in 1970.

If Lebanon doesn’t bet on Israel, and instead hangs on to international law, Arab League and Palestine, bye bye Lebanese sovereignty.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC-N) has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, warning all vessels to not attempt to cross, following Israel’s refusal to withdraw from and strikes this morning on Southern Lebanon, with the following message being broadcast on maritime frequencies near the Strait by the IRGC:

“Since Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, the complete lifting of the naval blockade, and the withdrawal of American terrorist forces from the Persian Gulf and the region are among the main conditions of the agreement between Iran and the United States. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until these conditions are met. All ships are requested, for the sake of their security and safety, not to approach the Strait of Hormuz. Any vessel that defies this directive will be targeted.”

[Faytuks News @Faytuks]

IRGC has reportedly told ships in the Strait of Hormuz that:

"Since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon and the complete lifting of the naval blockade and the withdrawal of American terrorist forces from the Persian Gulf and the region are among the main conditions of the agreement between Iran and the United States. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until these two conditions are met, all ships are ordered not to approach the Strait of Hormuz for their own safety and health, any vessel that defies this order will be targeted.”

[Baba Banaras™ @RealBababanaras]

Huge loss for Iran backed Hezbollah

Angry Israel launched a fresh wave of airstrikes against Iran backed Hezbollah after Hezbollah launched over 50 rockets in Northern Israel. Reportedly over 50 Hezbollah terrorists have been killed in these airstrikes in Southern Lebanon.

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

The sequence of events overnight is important:

Hezbollah violated the ceasefire and struck an Israeli tank, killing four Israeli soldiers.

Israel responded with extensive IDF strikes against Hezbollah targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

Then Iran canceled its planned trip to Switzerland, claiming Israel had violated the ceasefire.

Translation: Hezbollah attacks Israel. Israel responds. Iran uses Israel’s response as the excuse to delay diplomacy.

[i24NEWS English @i24NEWS_EN]

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said Israel must stop its actions in Lebanon and that the US must put pressure on Israel to stop

In response, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee took to X to say “Does France get all its info from Hezbollah? Last night, Israel had 4 of its soldiers killed. Israel strikes when struck”

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

A Gulf-based imam just told me something Western diplomats won't say out loud

He sat down for 45 minutes and dismantled the entire "new Iran" narrative piece by piece

The IRGC isn't Iran's army, he said. It's Khamenei's private militia, and it's the parent company of Hamas, the Houthis, and half the militias running Iraq

Trump wants to meet Mojtaba Khamenei. Calls it an honor. Tawhidi's response: he doesn't even know who that is

Khamenei read the Muslim Brotherhood's Quran in prison in 1963. Same ideology that built Hamas, al-Qaeda, ISIS. Tawhidi traced the line in real time

The UAE got hit with drones during a war it never asked for, and Tawhidi made it clear: Gulf states aren't scared, they're owed an apology that hasn't come

I pushed back hard, called the IRGC label outdated diplomacy. Tawhidi wouldn't move an inch

Is peace with Tehran is even possible?

This is the conversation Washington isn't having

Thank you @Imamofpeace for the interview

[Neo @Realneo101]

Marco Rubio: "Every single problem in the Middle East traces straight back to Iran. Hezbollah? Iran. Shia militias destroying and threatening Iraq? Iran. Hamas? Iran. The Houthis? Iran. Assad slaughtering people in Syria? Iran. This regime has killed thousands and thousands of people."

Rubio really wanted to get rid of this terrorist regime, not hand them a deal.

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

IRAN: INTENSIFIES ITS CRACKDOWN ON CHRISTIANS

Iran is increasingly branding Christians as “Zionists,” foreign agents, and even “Mossad mercenaries” as it cracks down on underground churches and Christian converts.

Authorities have arrested church leaders, raided house churches, and charged dozens with offenses carrying potential death sentences. Critics say Tehran is reframing religious persecution as national security, targeting a growing Christian movement it views as a threat to the regime’s ideological foundations.

FDD

[C14 News | EN @c14english]

🚨🇦🇪🇮🇷 The UAE hoped the US–Iran standoff would continue, further weakening the Islamic Republic before any ceasefire took hold, according to new report.

Emirati frustration with the settlement process and Pakistan’s role as a broker led to tensions, including the mass expulsion of Pakistani workers and the detention and deportation of several Pakistani Shiites, the New York Times reports.

[ME24 - Middle East 24 @MiddleEast_24]

🚨🇺🇸🇫🇷French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said Israel must stop its actions in Lebanon and that the US must put pressure on Israel to stop

In response, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee took to X to say “Does France get all its info from Hezbollah? Last night, Israel had 4 of its soldiers killed. Israel strikes when struck”
Source : (i24News)

[Hussain Abdul-Hussain @hahussain]

The shooting is not the problem in Lebanon. The problem is that Hezbollah is armed in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and Lebanese government resolutions.
Hezbollah has the blood of over 1,500 Americans on its hands and America labels it terrorist. Hezbollah has launched war on Israel three times since 2006z
To put Hezbollah on equal footing with Israel and think the problem is to get to a ceasefire is incorrect.