The Draft Cartel

Building dynasty empires using models focused on long-term sustainability!

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

A couple things to note - my model doesn't try to reveal who will finish as this years WR1 or RB3.

I try to ask a different question:

Which profiles are built to sustain and grow elite value over the next 3–5 years?

I grade players on a weighted scale through:
• target earning/consistency/competition
• efficiency/historical production
• archetype longevity
• ecosystem/organizational stability
• age curve
• long-term insulation

I'm trying to find out - how recession-proof can a player really be?

My model grades out a "Dynasty Index Score" which helps differentiates between:
Fragile WR2s & Volatility-Based Assets
Elite Foundational Players vs. Elite Dynasty WR1s (subtle yet valuable difference!)

The goal isn’t to predict who scores the most points this season. It's to identify which assets are the most likely to sustain cornerstone values.

This Is a passion project and I'm grateful to anyone who supports - excited to grow, share, and learn with the dynasty community!

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Ladd McConkey rookie season:

82-1149-8 on 70% catch rate
9-197-1 in his first playoff game

Hope this Chargers offense can turn it around.

FWIW, there’s only been 13 WRs in NFL history to record 1k+ yards in their rookie season and then have failed to reach it again. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[PFF @PFF]

Justin Herbert on deep passes this season

2-10
0 Pass TD
3 INT
9.2 Passer Rating

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Emeka Egbuka is starting to become absolutely unplayable.

Take out the first few weeks of last season and it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to call him a bust so far in his career.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Jadan Baugh first SEC matchup of 2026

27 totes
168 yards
3 TDs

On the season:

54 carries
458 yards
8 TDs

1.03 🔥

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

WEEK 2 CFB RANKINGS⬇️

1. Jeremiah Smith: WR
2. Arch Manning: QB +2
3. Jadan Baugh: RB +2
4. Ahmad Hardy: RB -2
5. Dante Moore: QB -3
6. Darian Mensah: QB +3
7. Charlie Becker: WR +2
8. Kewan Lacy: RB
9. Cam Coleman: WR -2
10. Ryan Coleman-Williams: -4
11. Nate Frazier: +2
12. CJ Carr: QB
13. Ryan Wingo: WR -2
14. Trinidad Chambliss: QB
15. KJ Duff: WR -1

Kewan Lacy was mistakenly omitted last week, that’s on me. Let me know who’s too high, too low, and just right!

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Charlie Becker is SHOOTING up these rankings ⬆️

- Elite speed/size combination
- Advanced route runner at all three levels
- Contested catch proven (13/17 on tight window targets)
- Production vs. elite teams (126 vs OSU,
118 vs. PSU)

1.05??

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

WEEK 2 CFB RANKINGS⬇️

1. Jeremiah Smith: WR
2. Arch Manning: QB +2
3. Jadan Baugh: RB +2
4. Ahmad Hardy: RB -2
5. Dante Moore: QB -3
6. Darian Mensah: QB +3
7. Charlie Becker: WR +2
8. Kewan Lacy: RB
9. Cam Coleman: WR -2
10. Ryan Coleman-Williams: -4
11. Nate Frazier: +2
12. CJ Carr: QB
13. Ryan Wingo: WR -2
14. Trinidad Chambliss: QB
15. KJ Duff: WR -1

Kewan Lacy was mistakenly omitted last week, that’s on me. Let me know who’s too high, too low, and just right!

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

WEEK 2 CFB RANKINGS⬇️

1. Jeremiah Smith: WR
2. Arch Manning: QB +2
3. Jadan Baugh: RB +2
4. Ahmad Hardy: RB -2
5. Dante Moore: QB -3
6. Darian Mensah: QB +3
7. Charlie Becker: WR +2
8. Kewan Lacy: RB
9. Cam Coleman: WR -2
10. Ryan Coleman-Williams: -4
11. Nate Frazier: +2
12. CJ Carr: QB
13. Ryan Wingo: WR -2
14. Trinidad Chambliss: QB
15. KJ Duff: WR -1

Kewan Lacy was mistakenly omitted last week, that’s on me. Let me know who’s too high, too low, and just right!

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

POST WEEK 1 CFB DYNASTY RANKINGS✅:

1. Jeremiah Smith (he’ll have this spot reserved)
2. Dante Moore
3. Ahmad Hardy
4. Arch Manning
5. Jadan Baugh
6. Ryan Coleman-Williams
7. Cam Coleman
8. Darian Mensah
9. Charlie Becker
10. LaNorris Sellers
11. Ryan Wingo
12. CJ Carr
13. Nate Frazier
14. KJ Duff
15. Omarion Miller

LET ME KNOW WHO’S BEING SLEPT ON 🫡

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Week 1:

Zay Flowers: 5-150-1
Ladd McConkey: 5-82-1
Parker Washington: 5-83-1
Devonta Smith: 3-53

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Players I am higher on than consensus:

Ceedee Lamb
Devonta Smith
Zay Flowers
Ladd McConkey
Parker Washington

Ceedee Lamb🍽️🍽️ : The fourth highest score on my index. If a manager in your league is frustrated with Pickens situation, buy him.

Zay Flowers ⬆️ ⬆️ : insulated, proven, strong environment, unproven competition. Will be an established WR1 by the end of this season

Parker Washington ✅ ✅ : Jags are planning on giving him $55 million. Major investment with better than anticipated traits. WR15 or better season incoming.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Parker Washington today:

5-83-1 on 6 targets in a run heavy script.

Too late to trade for him - he is Jacksonville’s WR1 and now playing for a contract that should be $30-$35 Ms annually.

Absolutely silly his ADP fell to 90.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Parker Washington when playing 50%+ snaps last year including the WC game:

7+ targets in 9/11 games
9+ targets in 7/11 games
10+ targets, 50+ yards, or a TD in 9/11 games

This volume was ONLY with 50% and clear WR2 upside was shown when given the opportunity. Rumored to get an extension shortly. The ceiling is truly unknown but the floor is already outweighing the ADP.

[TheFantasyTender @FantasyTender]

A lot of you are asking for my “why” on Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Positives/Observations for Chris Rodriguez Jr. (the most hated man in this app lol)

A thread🧵

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

@Spokey1991 Looked good after that first drive. Big one coming up after this weekend.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

POST WEEK 1 CFB DYNASTY RANKINGS✅:

1. Jeremiah Smith (he’ll have this spot reserved)
2. Dante Moore
3. Ahmad Hardy
4. Arch Manning
5. Jadan Baugh
6. Ryan Coleman-Williams
7. Cam Coleman
8. Darian Mensah
9. Charlie Becker
10. LaNorris Sellers
11. Ryan Wingo
12. CJ Carr
13. Nate Frazier
14. KJ Duff
15. Omarion Miller

LET ME KNOW WHO’S BEING SLEPT ON 🫡

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Chris Rodriguez vs. Bhaysul Tuten in 2025

The numbers weren’t close last season.

PFF: 73.4 (27th) > 65.0 (50th)
PFF Rushing: 78.4 (20th) > 66.4 (54th)
YAC: 3.5 > 3.2
Missed Tackles Forced: 23 > 18
YPC: 4.5 > 3.7
Rushing Yards Over Expected: +0.46 >>> -0.12

Rodriguez was already the more efficient and productive back in 2025. Now add the financial investment the Jaguars’ front office has made in him, and the opportunity gap becomes intriguing.

With Tuten, Rodriguez is an RB3 with legitimate weekly upside. If the injury bug hits Jacksonville’s backfield, though, CR has a path to becoming a low-end RB1 in a dynamic offense.

[SleeperNFL @SleeperNFL]

The Jaguars Week 1 depth chart has RB1 as Bhayshul Tuten OR Chris Rodriguez 🫠

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

MY PICKS FOR THE NFL AWARDS THIS YEAR:

CPOY: Jayden Daniels (+450)
DROY: Rueben Bain Jr. (+450)
OROY: Jadarian Price (+650)
DPOY: Will Anderson (+650)
OPOY: Bijan Robinson (+900)
MVP: Lamar Jackson (+650)

Comment your thoughts and predictions below ⬇️

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

@JusBlueMc @Bull15ChinaShop @Scott7news How old are you? Can you blame them?

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

@SleeperBrowns @KeepTradeCut @SleeperNFL @SleeperPackers Fannin! Historical precedent set with rookie year production.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

ASRB bust, spike, and volatility analysis (HALF-PPR):

2025 -
4 single-digit games
3 spike games (25+ pts)

2024 -
5 single-digit games
2 spike games

2023 -
1 single-digit game
1 spike game

The trend is clear. As consistently great as Sun God has been, we’re slowly starting to see a more volatile WR1, instead of consistently sharp WR1, and honestly - it makes perfect sense when thought of in context of Jameson Williams’ ascension.

I believe Amon-Ra is destined for a tier-down in the very near future. If you’re a rebuilder, I believe cashing in should be considered.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Jameson Williams after the bye last year:

70 yards or a TD in 8/10 games. WR10 finish. Clear WR1 ascension profile that took place once Laporta went down with injury.

As good as their offense is, I’m curious to see whether DET can support a high-end WR1, low-end WR1, TE1, and a high-end RB1.

Feel like the first time they truly have too many mouths to feed.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

After Dan Campbells “bellcow” comments today, I’m not sure how bold this really is but I think we’re about to see an all-time great season from Jahmyr Gibbs:

2025: 1.03 pts/touch on 320 touches
2024: 1.12 pts/touch on 302 touches
2023: .92 pts/touch on 234 touches

If the efficiency stays at career average and Gibbs gets even 3 more touches/game, we’re inching towards a 400 point season in half-PPR leagues.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

WRs that I am lower vs higher on when it comes to their long-term dynasty outlook:

LOWER
Emeka Egbuka
George Pickens
Rome Odunze
Nico Collins

HIGHER
Ladd McConkey
Zay Flowers
Ceedee Lamb
Alec Pierce

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

Jameson Williams after the bye last year:

70 yards or a TD in 8/10 games. WR10 finish. Clear WR1 ascension profile that took place once Laporta went down with injury.

As good as their offense is, I’m curious to see whether DET can support a high-end WR1, low-end WR1, TE1, and a high-end RB1.

Feel like the first time they truly have too many mouths to feed.

[The Draft Cartel @DraftCartel]

@FourPatsDynasty In!!