SPX Daily β Structure Breakdown & Downside Scenarios
Current read: Two ascending support trendlines have now broken. The first break was the steeper, more extreme line β that one was expected. The more important tell is that the next line of support (the bounce level) also failed, marked by the two circled points. Back-to-back breaks like this shift the near-term tone and the Head & Shoulders many are already aware of.
Bias: We've now got a red daily fair-value basis, so the working assumption is that more downside is coming unless price reclaims that level. Until it does, I'd be taking measures for potential further downside.
Context: Zoomed out, we're still inside a broader bull structure β so these are drawdowns within an uptrend, not (yet) a trend reversal. From here I see four scenarios, ranging from routine to structure-breaking:
1 β ~5% drawdown (base case). The cleanest, most likely path. A normal pullback down to tag the 150-day MA (purple line, circled), which lines up with the first volume-block support. Ideal spot for a touch-and-bounce.
2 β ~7% drawdown. A bit deeper, reaching the point of control (POC). Honestly, if we get here, I don't expect it to hold β more likely it slices through. Reason: there's an unfilled gap just below that acts like a magnet.
3 β ~10% drawdown. That gap fill drops us into the "smart money zone." If buyers don't step in here, the message is clear β structure is at risk.
4 β ~14% drawdown. A confirmed break of structure = likely intermediate-term bear market to follow. ~14% is the worst case target, but if structure breaks decisively the drawdown can run deeper. At that point I stop trading the daily β pull up the weekly and monthly timeframes and reset to a higher-timeframe looking for weekly and volume-support levels
Game plan: Watch the red fair-value basis for a reclaim (invalidates the bear case) or break of the previous highs. Otherwise, treat Levels 1 β 4 as a downside ladder: bounce candidates at the 150-MA / volume block, with each failed level opening the door to the next.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
$US10YR Monthly Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"
Let the lines guide the way βοΈ
~ Resistance Channel Broken
~ B2B Reversal of 150- Monthly MA
~ Converging Triangle / Breakout Tension
~ Triple Tops & Bottoms / Head & Shoulders
If you love charts, turn on alerts and follow to @DrawTheLinesHQ to never miss the next chart!
#GovernmentBonds #10YR #USTreasuries
$US10YR Monthly Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"
Let the lines guide the way βοΈ
~ Resistance Channel Broken
~ B2B Reversal of 150- Monthly MA
~ Converging Triangle / Breakout Tension
~ Triple Tops & Bottoms / Head & Shoulders
If you love charts, turn on alerts and follow to @DrawTheLinesHQ to never miss the next chart!
#GovernmentBonds #10YR #USTreasuries
$US10YR Monthly Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"
Let the lines guide the way βοΈ
~ Resistance Channel Broken
~ B2B Reversal of 150- Monthly MA
~ Converging Triangle / Breakout Tension
~ Triple Tops & Bottoms / Head & Shoulders
If you love charts, turn on alerts and follow to @DrawTheLinesHQ to never miss the next chart!
#GovernmentBonds #10YR #USTreasuries
$STZ Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"
Let the lines guide the way βοΈ
~ B2B Reversal of 150- Daily MA
~ Ascending / Rising Wedge
~ Resistance Channel Broken
~ Bottoms Up / H&S reversal
If you love charts, turn on alerts and follow to @DrawTheLinesHQ to never miss the next chart!
$SPX $SPY Historical Charting "The 150- Check-back"
When will the S&P next check-back to it's 150- Monthly Moving Average? Let the lines guide the way βοΈ
~ Clean Canvas
~ 150- M MA & Trendline Support
~ Duration of Check-backs to 150- M MA
~ Confluence of Charts
Chart lovers, drop a follow to #DrawTheLines + turn on alerts to never miss the next chart!
$UPS Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"
Let the lines guide the way βοΈ
~ Clean Canvas
~ 150- Daily MA
~ Converging Trendlines
~ Triple Bottom Bottoms Up!
Chart lovers, drop a follow to #DrawTheLines + turn on alerts to never miss the next chart!
@sanambna@Scaramucci@lilo11 With all due respect, please donβt ignore anything Iran / IRGC / Extremist Islamic Regime and its proxies have done for the last 40+ yearsβ¦ you can google the list of horror its too much for a Twitter post
$SIRI Charting Thread "Poised for a Breakout"
Let the lines guide the wayππ§΅ 1/3
Daily Timeframe
Clean canvas; no lines or judgments rendered
Nascent stages of a "Bear-to-Bull" reversal with the smoothening of it's 150- Daily MA.
3/3 π§΅ $SPX $SPY Confluence
Monthly S&P setup looking eerily similar to last yearβs pre-Tariff low actionβ¦ and the timing (heading into April) feels a little too perfect.
But letβs be realβhow often do we get a near copy/paste situation a year apart? We could also easily squeeze everyone expecting downside and rip to 7100+ making new ATHs.
Bottom line: No One Knows. Stay Prepared.
$SPX $SPY "Where have we seen this before..π€"
Let the lines guide the wayππ· 1/3
Clean canvas; no lines or judgments rendered
Monthly Timeframe | 150- Daily MA | 33 SMA Basis