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SPX Daily — Structure Breakdown & Downside Scenarios

Current read: Two ascending support trendlines have now broken. The first break was the steeper, more extreme line — that one was expected. The more important tell is that the next line of support (the bounce level) also failed, marked by the two circled points. Back-to-back breaks like this shift the near-term tone and the Head & Shoulders many are already aware of.

Bias: We've now got a red daily fair-value basis, so the working assumption is that more downside is coming unless price reclaims that level. Until it does, I'd be taking measures for potential further downside.

Context: Zoomed out, we're still inside a broader bull structure — so these are drawdowns within an uptrend, not (yet) a trend reversal. From here I see four scenarios, ranging from routine to structure-breaking:

1 — ~5% drawdown (base case). The cleanest, most likely path. A normal pullback down to tag the 150-day MA (purple line, circled), which lines up with the first volume-block support. Ideal spot for a touch-and-bounce.

2 — ~7% drawdown. A bit deeper, reaching the point of control (POC). Honestly, if we get here, I don't expect it to hold — more likely it slices through. Reason: there's an unfilled gap just below that acts like a magnet.

3 — ~10% drawdown. That gap fill drops us into the "smart money zone." If buyers don't step in here, the message is clear — structure is at risk.

4 — ~14% drawdown. A confirmed break of structure = likely intermediate-term bear market to follow. ~14% is the worst case target, but if structure breaks decisively the drawdown can run deeper. At that point I stop trading the daily — pull up the weekly and monthly timeframes and reset to a higher-timeframe looking for weekly and volume-support levels

Game plan: Watch the red fair-value basis for a reclaim (invalidates the bear case) or break of the previous highs. Otherwise, treat Levels 1 → 4 as a downside ladder: bounce candidates at the 150-MA / volume block, with each failed level opening the door to the next.

$SPX $SPY $QQQ

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US 10- YR Treasury Yields on the rise

Long term breakout in effect ↗️

$dxy $tlt

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$US10YR Monthly Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"

Let the lines guide the way ✍️

~ Resistance Channel Broken
~ B2B Reversal of 150- Monthly MA
~ Converging Triangle / Breakout Tension
~ Triple Tops & Bottoms / Head & Shoulders

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#GovernmentBonds #10YR #USTreasuries

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@CNBCFastMoney @timseymour @karenfinerman @CarterBWorth Yields on the rise. Note the monthly timeframe and "Bearish-to-Bullish" reversal pattern.

https://t.co/KMASJ7iXiX

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$US10YR Monthly Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"

Let the lines guide the way ✍️

~ Resistance Channel Broken
~ B2B Reversal of 150- Monthly MA
~ Converging Triangle / Breakout Tension
~ Triple Tops & Bottoms / Head & Shoulders

If you love charts, turn on alerts and follow to @DrawTheLinesHQ to never miss the next chart!

#GovernmentBonds #10YR #USTreasuries

[Draw The Lines Charting @DrawTheLinesHQ]

$US10YR Monthly Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"

Let the lines guide the way ✍️

~ Resistance Channel Broken
~ B2B Reversal of 150- Monthly MA
~ Converging Triangle / Breakout Tension
~ Triple Tops & Bottoms / Head & Shoulders

If you love charts, turn on alerts and follow to @DrawTheLinesHQ to never miss the next chart!

#GovernmentBonds #10YR #USTreasuries

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@CarterBWorth Legend

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$STZ Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"

Let the lines guide the way ✍️

~ B2B Reversal of 150- Daily MA
~ Ascending / Rising Wedge
~ Resistance Channel Broken
~ Bottoms Up / H&S reversal

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$SPX $SPY Historical Charting "The 150- Check-back"

When will the S&P next check-back to it's 150- Monthly Moving Average? Let the lines guide the way ✍️

~ Clean Canvas
~ 150- M MA & Trendline Support
~ Duration of Check-backs to 150- M MA
~ Confluence of Charts

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$UPS Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"

Let the lines guide the way ✍️

~ Clean Canvas
~ 150- Daily MA
~ Converging Trendlines
~ Triple Bottom Bottoms Up!

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2/6 🧵 $AMR Bottoms Up!

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5/5 🧵 $AAP Confluence of Charts

Give a follow if you love charts 📈or appreciate the work 🤙

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$AAP Charting Thread "Bear-to-Bull Reversal"

Let the lines guide the way👇🧵 1/5

Dual Charts: 1) Daily & 2) Weekly Timeframe

Clean canvas; no lines or judgments rendered
150- D/W Moving Averages

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4/5 🧵 $AAP Symmetrical Triangle Convergence

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@TribeRuffner Totally safe and stock market are 2 phrases that don’t go together lol

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@sanambna @Scaramucci @lilo11 With all due respect, please don’t ignore anything Iran / IRGC / Extremist Islamic Regime and its proxies have done for the last 40+ years… you can google the list of horror its too much for a Twitter post

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$SIRI 🚀 with more longer term room to run

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$SIRI Charting Thread "Poised for a Breakout"

Let the lines guide the way👇🧵 1/3

Daily Timeframe

Clean canvas; no lines or judgments rendered

Nascent stages of a "Bear-to-Bull" reversal with the smoothening of it's 150- Daily MA.

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3/3 🧵 $SPX $SPY Confluence

Monthly S&P setup looking eerily similar to last year’s pre-Tariff low action… and the timing (heading into April) feels a little too perfect.

But let’s be real—how often do we get a near copy/paste situation a year apart? We could also easily squeeze everyone expecting downside and rip to 7100+ making new ATHs.

Bottom line: No One Knows. Stay Prepared.

[Draw The Lines Charting @DrawTheLinesHQ]

$SPX $SPY "Where have we seen this before..🤔"

Let the lines guide the way👇📷 1/3

Clean canvas; no lines or judgments rendered
Monthly Timeframe | 150- Daily MA | 33 SMA Basis

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2/3 🧵 $SPX $SPY Price Action Similar to pre-Tarif low