@StackerSatoshi 97250 should be the bottom for today, hopefully we hold there or we going to 95k level, 97k should wipe out most decent long bits.. this drop is caused by whales & institutions dumping
@TedPillows This is market manipulation to cause mysterious direction of where we going.. the last 25 days it showed that if we go back to 122k then 13 billion of shorts will be squeezed then the market dumped, 80% of open interest could be fake as a persuasive tools
Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because ... the 4 year cycle!?
IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was very profitable last 3 cycles. But, 3 cycles is not enough for a reliable pattern, and it is absolutely not guaranteed that the top is again 18 months after the halving (Oct'25!). Also, S2F model says nothing about tops or bottoms, only about the average price level in a halving cycle, assuming a fundamental phase transition (as described in the S2FX article, on my website in the bio). So IMO the top could very well be in 2026, or 2027, or 2028 ... actually I am much more interested in the average price level than the top (or the bottom).
What I do know is: there has not been a fundamental bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle. Realized price (grey line) has not diverted from 200 week moving average (black line), RSI has not been 80+ (red) etc. Either the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates (e.g. 1%-10% btc) and rebalancing (sell after pump and buy after dump, to keep exposures within mandate). Both scenarios are very bullish for bitcoin. Also, IMO there can not be a big bear market without a big jump (red RSI 80+ and grey realized price diverting from black 200wma).
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