Dual Acies

Prop trader. US equities intraday, structural theses long-term. 🇪🇪

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

$META Part 1 — What are you?

I went long $META today. 40 sh, 603 avg. First time after two years of just watching the "Mag 7 AI loser" posts cross my feed and saying nothing.

Let me tell you why.

Definitely not the version the bulls are selling.

Everyone already knows the headline. Cheapest of the big tech names, spending an enormous amount on AI, cash flow going negative while they build it out.

The market has chewed on that for months.

People are too busy being mad at the company to see the actual thesis.

THE CASH ENGINE WORKS RIGHT NOW

The feed is addictive. Their new endless scroll pulled me away from doing market research, which is the thing I actually love doing.

That's not said lightly. When a product out competes the work you'd choose for free, that's the exact attention advertisers pay the most for.

The algo isn't always pretty. It'll drag you into outrage and conspiracy rabbit holes on repeat. But mostly it adapts scary well.

That engine pays for everything else.

I'M NOT EXCITED ABOUT WHAT META IS

A wildly profitable social company is a boring.

So what's Meta besides that?

That's my real question. And the stock is cheap because nobody can answer it yet.

THE BET ONLY WORKS WITH A FOUNDER. THIS FOUNDER.

Zuck is the youngest of the big tech CEOs by over a decade, the only founder still running his own company and a millennial who built products that hook our generation because he's a part of it.

More importantly... He has the control to try, fail, and try again on a timeline no hired CEO could survive.

The metaverse was attempt one. He burned billions and got cartoon legs because the tech wasn't ready. People laughed, memed, and moved on.

But the willingness to eat that and keep trying is the whole point.

If they ever pushed him out, I'd sell the next day.

THE HATE IS REAL, BUT IT'S AIMED WRONG

Here's what you get backwards. People hate what social media did to our generation and they aim all of it at Meta. Fine.

But if MySpace had won, would they have stayed ad free with endless customization forever?

No shot.

The things we resent aren't Meta's sins.
They're what any platform turns into when it wins. Meta just got there first, so it eats the blame for the whole industry.

That leaves a moral discount on the stock.

We all say we hate it, right up until the thing is entertaining enough.

Then we doomscroll anyway.

WHAT ACTUALLY EXCITES ME

Mobile feels old. I'm typing this on a phone that hasn't meaningfully changed in years.

What's next is glasses that genuinely enhance your reality, not the clunky VR that makes you walk into furniture.

Translate a language in real time as you travel. Surface what you forgot. Give you an edge.

And humans will pay anything for an edge.

It's useless tech until vitality arrives.

THE ACTUAL TRADE

I'm not pretending to know the timeline.

The far future stuff is potentially hopium.

The trade underneath it is simple.

A cheap cash machine, attempting to become the next big thing, run by the one visionary built to keep attempting.

Near term, the only question that matters is whether the AI actually makes the ad business better.

We will find out soon enough.

I could be early.
I could be wrong.

But I'm curious enough to put my own money behind the thesis.

Not financial advice. I'm long. Judge it accordingly.

—Acies

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@TicTocTick His autocorrect acting up again. What he meant to say was smoke crack*

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@TaTuul991 Brutal return on investment for those who are still sitting in cash.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

To all the AI bubble post people.

You are generating those clicks now and eventually you may even be right.

But it's delusional to think that you're not responsible for the profit people have been missing in the past quarter.

Just admit that you're afraid and get it over with.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@TradingThomas3 It's only a red day for those that still hold a blind faith in the SaaS fairytale.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@zephyr_z9 So how many new inventions does AAPL have again since Steve Jobs had to take a sudden and tragic leave of absence?

That's right. 0

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

10 $META shares out 618, 30 remaining. In case this was just momentum. Going back to 40 on a pullback tomorrow.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

$META Part 1 — What are you?

I went long $META today. 40 sh, 603 avg. First time after two years of just watching the "Mag 7 AI loser" posts cross my feed and saying nothing.

Let me tell you why.

Definitely not the version the bulls are selling.

Everyone already knows the headline. Cheapest of the big tech names, spending an enormous amount on AI, cash flow going negative while they build it out.

The market has chewed on that for months.

People are too busy being mad at the company to see the actual thesis.

THE CASH ENGINE WORKS RIGHT NOW

The feed is addictive. Their new endless scroll pulled me away from doing market research, which is the thing I actually love doing.

That's not said lightly. When a product out competes the work you'd choose for free, that's the exact attention advertisers pay the most for.

The algo isn't always pretty. It'll drag you into outrage and conspiracy rabbit holes on repeat. But mostly it adapts scary well.

That engine pays for everything else.

I'M NOT EXCITED ABOUT WHAT META IS

A wildly profitable social company is a boring.

So what's Meta besides that?

That's my real question. And the stock is cheap because nobody can answer it yet.

THE BET ONLY WORKS WITH A FOUNDER. THIS FOUNDER.

Zuck is the youngest of the big tech CEOs by over a decade, the only founder still running his own company and a millennial who built products that hook our generation because he's a part of it.

More importantly... He has the control to try, fail, and try again on a timeline no hired CEO could survive.

The metaverse was attempt one. He burned billions and got cartoon legs because the tech wasn't ready. People laughed, memed, and moved on.

But the willingness to eat that and keep trying is the whole point.

If they ever pushed him out, I'd sell the next day.

THE HATE IS REAL, BUT IT'S AIMED WRONG

Here's what you get backwards. People hate what social media did to our generation and they aim all of it at Meta. Fine.

But if MySpace had won, would they have stayed ad free with endless customization forever?

No shot.

The things we resent aren't Meta's sins.
They're what any platform turns into when it wins. Meta just got there first, so it eats the blame for the whole industry.

That leaves a moral discount on the stock.

We all say we hate it, right up until the thing is entertaining enough.

Then we doomscroll anyway.

WHAT ACTUALLY EXCITES ME

Mobile feels old. I'm typing this on a phone that hasn't meaningfully changed in years.

What's next is glasses that genuinely enhance your reality, not the clunky VR that makes you walk into furniture.

Translate a language in real time as you travel. Surface what you forgot. Give you an edge.

And humans will pay anything for an edge.

It's useless tech until vitality arrives.

THE ACTUAL TRADE

I'm not pretending to know the timeline.

The far future stuff is potentially hopium.

The trade underneath it is simple.

A cheap cash machine, attempting to become the next big thing, run by the one visionary built to keep attempting.

Near term, the only question that matters is whether the AI actually makes the ad business better.

We will find out soon enough.

I could be early.
I could be wrong.

But I'm curious enough to put my own money behind the thesis.

Not financial advice. I'm long. Judge it accordingly.

—Acies

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

Added more $GME on dips.

2000 shares now blended average 22.81.

I sat in a loss with this thing before for several months so nothing new.

Don't fail me now apes.

NFA

-Acies

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

Been observing $GME for years.

Back in for a stretch. Long 1300 sh 23.05 avg

The old "dying retailer" meme is dead after this print.

You're a real boy now Gamestop.

Squeeze math is tricky. So ladder approach.

I'm a sellout trading the momentum, nothing personal kids.

-Acies

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@romanhelmetguy And then the next person mods a bit and the next.

Each new translation an echo of the thought police at the time.

An endless cycle until barely anything remains of the original.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

So instead of pinging my $VG conviction back and forth because that's what the conflict is doing to my brain I'll say this.

This remains a solid multi year thesis.

I will lock up 750 shares for the hyperlong perspective and probably trade the rest on momentum.

NFA

-Acies

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

The $VG Part 2 - Good times ahead.

The macro:

Trump called Tehran's latest proposal "garbage" and said the ceasefire is on "massive life support". His aides told reporters resumption of major combat is on the table. US Navy submarine arrived in Gibraltar two days ago. Qatar accused Iran of weaponizing Hormuz. Pakistan-mediated talks failed.

Wow, just wow:

Q1 EPS $0.19 vs $0.13. Revenue $4.6B vs $3.85B.

Full year 2026 EBITDA guidance went from $5.2-5.8B to $8.2-8.5B. A 54% midpoint raise. The spot assumption baked in: $9.50-10.50/MMBtu on remaining 2026 cargoes. CEO on the call: "There's really an uplift that's going to last for a while."

What a quarter.

What compounds underneath:

Operating costs at roughly half the incumbent's per-ton cost at full capacity. Advantage widens with scale.

CP2 turns on next year with cheap Permian gas access most competitors can't replicate.

AI optimization across 800K data points streaming every 10 seconds, targeting 40% above nameplate capacity. Above-contract production runs at near-pure margin.

84% of 2026 cargoes already locked. New 5-year contracts pricing at roughly double the long-term deals. Strategy is deliberate. Keep 20-year prices low to crush competition. Capture premium on incremental volume. The Amazon playbook applied to LNG.

The numbers behind the patience:

43 ships per month today. Path to the 90s per month by early 2029. A doubling. Based only on current construction and announced bolt-ons.

Investment grade by spring 2027 if not winter. $11B of high yield parent debt repricing to IG compresses cost of capital materially. Buybacks now in the capital allocation framework.

The trade:

I hold 2,000 shares at $12.33 average. Multi-quarter thesis.

Trim ladder:
$14 first trim. Recent pivot.
$17 second trim. Recent local high.
$20 third trim. Near 52-week close high.
$25 aggressive trim. All-time high zone.
Stub past $25 holds for the 2027-2029 compounding.

Each quarter compounds the spot capture as long as the crisis persists. Q2 has more crisis days than Q1. 2027 stacks Permian gas plus IG. 2028 stacks bolt-ons plus buybacks. 2029 stacks the full production doubling.

Invalidation: Permanent Iran resolution with Qatar back online before year-end. Plaquemines commercial delay past Q4 2026. BP damages settlement materially worse than the $1-2B range.

None of those are this week. Maybe not this quarter.

NFA. DYOR.

-Acies

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

50 sh stub remaining, happy speculating the Quantinuum IPO everyone.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

Long 300 $INFQ on the quantum headline today 13.73 avg.

Might be fully out of my mind, can't analyze this properly this fast, mostly vibes.

Moat:

DoC funded both US neutral-atom players (INFQ + Atom Computing). architecture bet, not a company bet.

19yr lineage from ColdQuanta. saffman as chief scientist (won 2026 APS Ramsey Prize and 2025 Bell Prize). 100-qubit system live at UK NQCC. NVIDIA NVQLink integration confirmed in Q1 2026 call.

$32.5M FY25 rev, $40M FY26 guide, $569M cash, no debt.

NFA

-Acies

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

Appreciate the kind words!

Yeah the mid term is a coin flip, which is exactly why i'm avoiding betting on it.

Just waiting on whether the AI actually shows up in the ad numbers.

Their Conversations keynote in London tomorrow should clear the air a bit.

Let's have a looksie whether the business AI stuff monetizes or it's just a nothingburger.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@GTAVI_Countdown That was the calmest swatting clip I've ever seen, such a humble man.

As for the guy who called it in....

I don't think cowards handle prison too well.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@FatherPhi Is that Lip from Shameless?

Also there are these rare moments where you actually do complete the cosmic length bucket list you were putting off.

It's like a serene momentary break from worrying about the next thing.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@MartinShkreli So the science predates the craze by about 4 decades and the guy who cracked it barely made a dime off of it?

Nice.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@compliantvc Agree with this one.

It was a fever dream of a period where even changing your battery required a PhD.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@Hedgeye That's either a bold call at the stretch where they made a major breakthrough, or pure desperation.

I guess we'll find out soon.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@HodlMagoo If someone could mail me the absolute bottom down to the decimal point, that would be fantastic.

Thanks in advance.

-My portfolio

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@signulll That's why it's so hard to gauge the extent of the bubble, because the tech isn't snake oil running on trust me bro. We already integrated it.

[Dual Acies @DualAcies]

@DeItaone The younger generation always wants to take down the old system, because it's not theirs.

As we get older, we lean more conservative to protect what we've built.