1st Round Rookie Running Backs to post 7.0+ Rushing PPG and 7.0+ Receiving PPG
- Saquon Barkley
- Bijan Robinson
- Najee Harris
- Ashton Jeanty
Year 2 Jeanty in a much improved offense has league winning upside
AJ Brown is the only Wide Receiver to post a 25.0%+ Target Share each season since 2020
and now goes from a Jalen Hurts led passing offense to a Drake Maye led one
for reference, last season Maye comfortably outproduced Hurts in these passing metrics
- Pass PPG
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt
- Yards per Attempt
- Pass TD Rate
AJ Brown is the veteran discount you shouldn’t miss out on
only four Wide Receivers scored a higher
PPG than Rashee Rice did last season
- Puka Nacua
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Amon-Ra St Brown
yet Rice isn’t valued as a Top 5 Wide Receiver
or as a Top 10 Wide Receiver
or even as a Top 20 Wide Receiver
BUY Rashee Rice
@Raysplswin@DefiantVitreous KC also doesn’t need high PPG right away to return you value
with Rookie Wide Receivers, the market just wants to see proof of upside
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Emeka Egbuka
- Luther Burden
are all valued as Top 20 Wide Receivers without even posting 14.0 PPG
KC Concepcion’s posted 17.0 PPG in his final collegiate season at Texas A&M
among 1st Round Wide Receivers to post 16+ PPG as a Junior
- 61% posted a 14+ PPG season
- 39% posted a 16+ PPG season
- 20% posted an 18+ PPG season
yet Concepcion is being valued as a fringe WR3
Brock Bowers scored the highest PPG by a Rookie Tight End ever
then, despite a knee injury, scored the second highest PPG by a Year 2 Tight End ever
a healthy Year 3 Brock Bowers could score the highest PPG by a Tight End ever
@chasin_dale it’s in comparison to his draft class, who’s first year is also being used
being QB8 last season is still not a ringing endorsement to have QB3 prices
@FFrealitycheck the model gives us five levels of Prospect
- Cornerstone
- Elite
- Upside
- Depth
- Clogger
Dart, Burden, Fannin Jr, and Golden were all Upside+ Prospects that were going in the 2nd Round (or later) of Rookie Drafts
last year, four Upside Prospects were being drafted in the 2nd Round of Rookie Drafts
- Jaxson Dart
- Luther Burden
- Harold Fannin Jr
- Matthew Golden
just a year later, three are being drafted within the first 4 Rounds of Startup Drafts
always bet on talent
ALL Running Backs that achieved 15+ PPG last season did at least one of these things:
posted 2.60+ YPTRA as a rusher
or
posted 0.60+ YPTPA as a receiver
not once has Quinshon Judkins posted either of these things
not at Ole Miss
not at Ohio State
and not in Cleveland
DeVonta Smith competed for targets with AJ Brown for four seasons
in that time, he managed to produce seasons of
- 15.0 PPG
- 14.2 PPG
- 15.3 PPG
- 11.9 PPG
DeVonta Smith is going to EAT competing for targets with a rookie