Edward Hardy

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

📅 Big Week Ahead for UK Markets: CPI, Jobs Data, By-Election & Bank of England Decision
• CPI Inflation (Wednesday): May CPI is expected to edge up to 3.0% Y/Y (from April's 2.81%), driven primarily by rising airfares and base effects. Keep an eye on whether it continues to undershoot the BoE’s previous forecasts.
• Labour Market Focus (Thursday): The Bank of England remains skeptical of official LFS data, viewing current wage growth as underreporting actual pay settlements.
• Payrolls Volatility: Instead, focus shifts to HMRC PAYE payrolls. The consensus expects a -23k flash print for May, but given last month's sharp -100k reading, expect high volatility and significant revisions to April's data.
• Makerfield By-Election (Thursday): Burnham's journey to challenging PM Starmer could be sealed at this week's by-election. He's odds-on to win the seat, but faces sharp opposition from Reform.
• BoE Decision (Thursday): All of this lands right before the MPC drops its latest policy decision, statement, and minutes.

👉 https://t.co/YHc80Z7ruo

#economics #uk #cpi #inflation #globalmacro #financialmarkets #markets

[Edward Hardy @EJRH]

@OddLotDan Yes - newsfeed has gone down for me - both on the Eikon software and the web login

[Edward Hardy @EJRH]

@viktor___vaughn Just @ me next time

[Edward Hardy @EJRH]

@viktor___vaughn Why are you gunning for me man

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

🇪🇺 MNI conducted an interview with ECB Vice President de Guindos

ECB Could Ease More This Year https://t.co/DiBVyFVbIH

ECB To Respond If Euro Saps Prices https://t.co/AzEVLXxiZN

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

🇳🇴Norges Bank's new path projections a little steeper across 2022 and into 2023 but flatten out at the tail-end of the forecast horizon. Inflation forecasts revised a touch higher near-term and output gap seen shrinking slightly faster $NOK

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

The end of Summar doldrums?
Today's open saw the highest volume in DAX futures since July 30th:

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

🇺🇸Banks take centre stage next week. Bank earnings exp to have deteriorated sharply, with slower consumption and higher provisions denting bottom line - although trading rev is expected to remain buoyant. Financials account for over 50% of earnings next wk, with Thurs the busiest

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

🇭🇰More speculation around an Ant Financial IPO in HK doing the rounds - IPO would be between $10-20bln for total valuation of $200bln - considerably larger than the Alibaba/ABInBev floats that boosted HIBOR and strengthened $HKD last year

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

Have been plenty of 'fewest since' #COVID19 headlines:
- Netherlands fewest fatalities since Mar23
- France fewest since Mar25
- Italy fewest since Mar14
- Spain fewest in over a month
- NY fewest since March
- UK fewest since Mar30
Global fatalities yday: +2.2% vs. 5D avg +2.8%

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 US earnings pick up next week with:
MONDAY: IBM
TUESDAY: CocaCola, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments
WEDNESDAY: AT&T, ThermoFisher
THURSDAY: Intel, Eli Lilly, Nextera
FRIDAY: T-Mobile, Verizon

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

Daily #COVID tracker highlights:
•Spain PM states country has “reached the peak” and seeks to deescalate restrictions soon
•Saudi-led coalition announced Yemen ceasefire to
halt spread in Middle East
•Global increase in cases: 5.9%. 5D avg: 6.3%; fatalities: 7.8%. 5D avg: 8.5%

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

Our #COVID-19 Tracker today shows:
•For 1st time since virus breakout, there were no fatalities in mainland China
•Japan PM declared state of emergency in Tokyo and 6 other prefectures
•Global uptick in cases- Yday: 5.7%, 5day avg: 7.6%, fatalities yday: 7.5%, 5day avg: 9.6%

[Edward Hardy @EJRH]

@viktor___vaughn Richard West

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

Some stunning stats in our Daily #COVID Tracker:
• 3/4 Americans now under some form of stay-at-home or lockdown order
• Global increase in cases (daily) – Yday: 8.5%. Five-day average: 10.8%
• Global increase in fatalities (daily) – Yday: 10.9%. Five-day average: 12.2%

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

EXCLUSIVE: Eurozone finance ministers are looking at ways to use the European Stability Mechanism to respond to a steep sell-off in government bonds, a source close to Eurogroup discussions told MNI.
- For full story, see MNI Mainwire #MNIExclusive

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

Brent oil prices have entered 'super-contango' as the 1-year Brent futures spread extends beyond $10.
- 'Super contango' exists when forward/futures price rises sufficiently above spot price/front price to a greater extent than be can be explained by interest + storage costs.

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

We estimate today's Gilt issuance announcement will be at upper end of the £155-166bln forecast range, at approx £165bln. Issuance likely tilted more toward short- and medium-term Gilts rather than linkers. Announcement due at the tail-end of the Budget that kicks off at 1230GMT.

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

Another plunge in 3M $USD Libor fix - that's the 14th largest drop in LIBOR on record and largest one-day drop since October 2008... which came 12 days after the last time Fed cut rates inter-meeting #LIBOR

[MNI @MNIMarketnews]

Today's LIBOR drop ranks as the 11th largest drop in the 3m LIBOR fix of the past 25 years. Largest drop in that period was January 2001 when the fix dropped 42bps.