Sith

slowly, then all at once

[Sith @EKusomu]

@SolarEtherPunk @BitMNR Higher

[DCinvestor @DCinvestor]

trillion dollar IPOs are a failure of the modern capitalist system

[David Mattin @DMattin]

We're at the start, right now, of historic phase shift

For the first time inside modernity, the human population in industrialised countries will peak and then decline

meanwhile, billions of AI agents and tens of millions of humanoid robots are coming on stream.

So when we think demographically, we can no longer think only about the entities that are born: the humans. We need to count the entities that are made, too: the AIs and robots.

What's happening is an economic handoff from we humans to our new children: the intelligent machines.

And this handoff is an epoch-making transformation of the underlying logic of the economy

we move from an economy built on human inputs and conditions of scarcity to one built on automated inputs and conditions of radical abundance.

AI agents will eliminate scarcity across knowledge work. Coding, law, marketing, consulting, finance: production will be substantially automated. Instant, hyper-personalised, near-zero-cost output.

But abundant intelligence with collide with the physical world, too. Embodied intelligence in the form of next-generation robots, including humanoids, will decouple physical production from human labour.

This is the path to the economic singularity: the point where the old rules, categories, and very language we've always used to describe the economy no longer make sense. Growth, labour, productivity: these words start to break down.

Instead, everything is downstream of more abundant intelligence, and the final constraining input: energy. And the core metric in this post-human economy? It's about how much intelligence we can generate per unit of energy. In other words, it's about squeezing more intelligence out of every joule.

That's what this AI rally is really about. Not a tech trade. The early pricing of the most significant economic transition in human history.

And we're barely at the beginning.

[Sith @EKusomu]

@cobie Up only

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

I think a lot of what we are seeing today still stems from covid and the animal spirits that created of an entire world be locked inside with stimmies and nothing else to do and we are going to see insane boom and bust cycles inside of AI.

The wealth that has been created from the AI boom in the last year for those who have bet on it has just gone parabolic. And I think in general that will continue for years to come but with added volatility in short boom and bust cycles. But in the end, the believers will win

Seeing entire index's like these be up 2-3-4x in a year is insane bc inside that bc you know individual stocks are up 100x+ in many cases. Then you have the rise of prediction markets, sports gambling, online casinos. There is something for everyone

have said repeatedly I felt the future here is bright. and I think for risk takers looking at new and emerging tech will continue to win. Hard to imagine all of the exciting things that are going to come out of this that we just didn't have the capability to build out before. In so many sectors. Defense, energy, robotics, AI, and probably anything else you can think of.

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of the quantum stack. The results are shocking. I expect a narrative shift and a further R&D boost toward post-quantum cryptography.

The first paper is by Google Quantum AI. They tackle the (logical) Shor algorithm, tailoring it to crack Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures. The algorithm runs on ~1K logical qubits for the 256-bit elliptic curve secp256k1. Due to the low circuit depth, a fast superconducting computer would recover private keys in minutes. I'm grateful to have joined as a late paper co-author, in large part for the chance to interact with experts and the alpha gleaned from internal discussions.

The second paper is by a stealthy startup called Oratomic, with ex-Google and prominent Caltech faculty. Their starting point is Google's improvements to the logical quantum circuit. They then apply improvements at the physical layer, with tricks specific to neutral atom quantum computers. The result estimates that 26,000 atomic qubits are sufficient to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures. This would be roughly a 40x improvement in physical qubit count over previous state-of-the-art. On the flip side, a single Shor run would take ~10 days due to the relatively slow speed of neutral atoms.

Below are my key takeaways. As a disclaimer, I am not a quantum expert. Time is needed for the results to be properly vetted. Based on my interactions with the team, I have faith the Google Quantum AI results are conservative. The Oratomic paper is much harder for me to assess, especially because of the use of more exotic qLDPC codes. I will take it with a grain of salt until the dust settles.

→ q-day: My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key. While a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) before 2030 still feels unlikely, now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing.
→ censorship: The Google paper uses a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof to demonstrate the algorithm's existence without leaking actual optimisations. From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored. There may be self-censorship for moral or commercial reasons, or because of government pressure. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign.
→ cracking time: A superconducting quantum computer, the type Google is building, could crack keys in minutes. This is because the optimised quantum circuit is just 100M Toffoli gates, which is surprisingly shallow. (Toffoli gates are hard because they require production of so-called "magic states".) Toffoli gates would consume ~10 microseconds on a superconducting platform, totalling ~1,000 sec of Shor runtime.
→ latency optimisations: Two latency optimisations bring key cracking time to single-digit minutes. The first parallelises computation across quantum devices. The second involves feeding the pubkey to the quantum computer mid-flight, after a generic setup phase.
→ fast- and slow-clock: At first approximation there are two families of quantum computers. The fast-clock flavour, which includes superconducting and photonic architectures, runs at roughly 100 kHz. The slow-clock flavour, which includes trapped ion and neutral atom architectures, runs roughly 1,000x slower (~100 Hz, or ~1 week to crack a single key).
→ qubit count: The size-optimised variant of the algorithm runs on 1,200 logical qubits. On a superconducting computer with surface code error correction that's roughly 500K physical qubits, a 400:1 physical-to-logical ratio. The surface code is conservative, assuming only four-way nearest-neighbour grid connectivity. It was demonstrated last year by Google on a real quantum computer.
→ future gains: Low-hanging fruit is still being picked, with at least one of the Google optimisations resulting from a surprisingly simple observation. Interestingly, AI was not (yet!) tasked to find optimisations. This was also the first time authors such as Craig Gidney attacked elliptic curves (as opposed to RSA). Shor logical qubit count could plausibly go under 1K soonish.
→ error correction: The physical-to-logical ratio for superconducting computers could go under 100:1. For superconducting computers that would be mean ~100K physical qubits for a CRQC, two orders of magnitude away from state of the art. Neutral atoms quantum computers are amenable to error correcting codes other than the surface code. While much slower to run, they can bring down the physical to logical qubit ratio closer to 10:1.
→ Bitcoin PoW: Commercially-viable Bitcoin PoW via Grover's algorithm is not happening any time soon. We're talking decades, possibly centuries away. This observation should help focus the discussion on ECDSA and Schnorr. (Side note: as unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I still believe Bitcoin PoW is cooked due to the dwindling security budget.)
→ team quality: The folks at Google Quantum AI are the real deal. Craig Gidney (@CraigGidney) is arguably the world's top quantum circuit optimisooor. Just last year he squeezed 10x out of Shor for RSA, bringing the physical qubit count down from 10M to 1M. Special thanks to the Google team for patiently answering all my newb questions with detailed, fact-based answers. I was expecting some hype, but found none.

[DCinvestor @DCinvestor]

ETHBTC is severely undervalued, based solely on the threat posed by quantum computing

Ethereum has a history of successfully upgrading the network while maintaining uptime, and will develop and implement a very high-consensus approach to deal with quantum-related issues before a critical threat emerges

but Bitcoin will spend months and probably years trying to deal with the quantum issue, debating soft vs hard fork, and any potential solution will then be piled onto by any number of special interests to make other changes to the protocol which will be objectionable to many

Bitcoin will likely enter a civil war over quantum

Ethereum has already spent months and years preparing for it

[Simon Dedic @sjdedic]

The more I think about it, the more obvious it becomes that AI may be the strongest bull case for crypto.

Far beyond anything we’ve ever imagined or hoped for.

This is no longer about bringing finance onchain to make existing systems more efficient.

It’s about building the financial rails for an entirely new (agentic) economy, one that will have orders of magnitude more participants than the human economy could ever sustain.

What has been a vision or a dream for us will become a necessity for AI.

Many people are already painting the devil on the wall, warning about software, white-collar jobs, the broader economy, and even humanity itself. And to be fair, many of these concerns may be valid.

But for what it’s worth, I can’t imagine a bigger or more compelling use case for crypto.

Haven’t been as excited for its future in a long time.

[Sith @EKusomu]

@zerohedge 🤡🤡🤡

[Sith @EKusomu]

@GarrettBullish Just another Zhupercylce.

[Sith @EKusomu]

@zachxbt Steady lads.
FUCK

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

Introducing EVMbench—a new benchmark that measures how well AI agents can detect, exploit, and patch high-severity smart contract vulnerabilities. https://t.co/op5zufgAGH

[Sith @EKusomu]

@LFuckingG @DCinvestor SpaceX🤞

[materkel.gwei 🦇🔊 @materkel]

it really starts to click when you realize that ai agents can't hold physical gold as a SoV

They'll want to hold the native asset that is backing their whole existence.

Ether is inevitable.

[Matt Shumer @mattshumer_]

https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg

[Temmy | DeFi Analyst🦇🔊 @Only1temmy]

This is why I will always respect Vitalik.

He’s not thinking about “winning the AGI race”, he’s thinking about what kind of systems we’re locking in for the next 30–50 years.

Privacy, verification, agent economies, governance, local models… all of it points to the same thing: preserving human agency in a world where intelligence becomes cheap and abundant.

The real risk isn’t that AI gets powerful. It’s that power gets centralized around it.

And his focus on Ethereum as a neutral economic and trust layer is about preventing that outcome before it becomes irreversible.

Still early and exploratory, but this is the kind of long-horizon thinking that actually solves real problems.

Very bullish long term for ETH.

[DCinvestor @DCinvestor]

the problem with people who say AI is a “bubble”

is they usually make comparisons to the dotcom bubble, where a lot of unproductive investment was made into failed startups which reached unrealistic valuations during the height of speculation

is that happening now? most of the capital doesn’t seem to be flowing into unproven startups which just got listed on the stock exchange

most of it is flowing into established providers (some public, some private) who are investing massive amounts into capex buildout now

so if you think this is a bubble, you’d have to think that capex is a waste and will not generate ROI and will eventually sit idle and need to be liquidated

but the thing is what is being built out is general purpose INTELLIGENCE compute via massive data centers- not specialized equipment which can only be used for one narrow purpose

and meanwhile, the developers keep cranking out new ways to effortlessly apply that INTELLIGENCE to any domain. if anything, they are currently undercharging for the vast economic value these capabilities can create at this point

if this is a bubble, it’s not like any we’ve ever seen before

[DCinvestor @DCinvestor]

2026 or 2027 may go down as the most impactful year in AI history- maybe even more so than 2023 when GPT-4 launched

and our leaders- instead of doing the hard work to help our society figure out how we will cope with 80% of existing knowledge work disappearing in the next 5 years

are dividing you and i, making us hate one another, while they raid the real and metaphorical national treasure hoards

i don’t think most people have digested where we are on the development curve. we are WELL into exponential territory now

the bulwark we’ve had up to this point is that AI consumer product development mostly focused on curiosities and novelties. now they are coming, with a bullseye, for all of the work and all of the productivity

we are basically a blink away from live-streamed, self-improving software not requiring any human technical input whatsoever

once that happens everything goes upside down

and tbqh, more collectivist societies will be much better prepared for this than what i see from America. America will still probably lead the tech, but the cycle of internecine conflict will intensify. expect it to crescendo as the elites fully realize that this is their last chance for full capture

it’s not that i dislike our industrialists- far from it, they’ve helped us create more productivity and wealth as a society than we could have ever imagined. what i take issue with is that many are now collectively pulling at the strings and may end up destroying our civil society for the benefit of their own ability to maintain control of capital through this transition, and if that happens, we will have nothing left other than their corporations to guide us. they may become the new government as we drift into some kind of dystopian and quasi-authoritarian cyberpunk future as the worker-capitalist loop is shattered

political leaders and civil society stepped up in past industrial revolutions to check that power- to harness it not just to create benefits for a few, but also for many. worker conditions improved after the advent of electricity and industrialization

some of you reading this will think i’m being a crazy alarmist and that we’ve still got time. but i’m telling you- what i’m saying is this is going to deeply matter within 2-5 years

prepare yourselves 🫡❤️

[DCinvestor @DCinvestor]

idk where the bottom is

i only know people will become impossibly bearish at some point in the coming weeks/months

they will think it's over and it's never coming back

but they'll be wrong

and Ethereum and ETH will be better positioned than they have been in many years

generational opportunities approach

[Sith @EKusomu]

@Alucard_eth FUCK.