Evolving Strategies

Evolving Strategies is a clinical data science firm that utilizes randomized-controlled trials and machine learning to modify human behavior.

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

Voters exposed to anti-Dem messages were about +4 points more likely to vote for the Republican candidate.
Prediction: Republicans net 2 House and 1 Senate district. We think the likely range for Reps in the House is +1 to +3, and -1 to +3 (a stretch) in the Senate. 7/7

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

What are the likely outcomes in the Kentucky and Virginia elections?
Let’s begin with KY, where we ran an RCT testing anti-Beshear messages at the end of the summer. Beshear had a clear and substantial lead in the control group, with two-party support around 55% Beshear. 1/

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

Now for Virginia, where we conducted an RCT testing anti-Dem messages across 7 House and 6 Senate districts in September. We found a tossup for the House vote and a slight Dem advantage for the Senate vote, but still close. And yet …6/

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

@slatestarcodex, I think you should update your grading of Richard Hanania ... he's saying you think his predictions in the leadup to the RUS invasion were great. Here's a start on all of his whishcasting gone wrong:
https://t.co/sFnuwHjOdX

[Adam B. Schaeffer @Adam_Schaeffer]

A thread on @RichardHanania and his idiotic/disgusting takes leading up to the war, because someone had to do it. Richard fancies himself a great forecaster. Very smart. Doesn’t fall for the emotional delusions like the stupid people. Very rational. And did I mention very smart?

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

@RichardHanania This is hilarious ... but, but, Scotty says I did good! Unfortunately, he graded you on March 1, and half of it was whether RUS would invade. Maybe @slatestarcodex can grade you on your full list of completely wrong predictions. Meantime, cope harder. https://t.co/FntzuJU8HK

[Adam B. Schaeffer @Adam_Schaeffer]

Unfortunately, Richard is wildly overconfident, doesn’t seem to understand human psychology, and has a disturbing predilection for illiberal leaders and nations that clouds his judgement.

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

“And the race is pretty much tied” for Rep @GlennYoungkin and Dem @TerryMcAuliffe #ElectionDay2021 #Elections2021 https://t.co/oWLAKGrMoW @FiveThirtyEight

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

I argued in @InsideSources in favor of RCT’s to figure out how to motivate the unvaccinated. Good news is that Tom Chang @USCMarshall did the research. Bad news: it may "backfire." Read more here: https://t.co/F0JPPGpr0R & here: https://t.co/VBZJ8j8juW #Covid19 #CovidVaccine

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

Fantastic randomized-controlled experiment on increasing #vaccine uptake. With unfortunate results. "While messages increased vaccination intentions, none of the treatments increased overall vaccination rates." via @nberpubs https://t.co/XkcufGO8UR #COVID19 #CovidVaccine

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

New @AEI Polling Report on personal liberty, politics, school curricula, and more. Worth a read: https://t.co/OufYGaOScs @karlynbowman

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

"4.3 million Americans, or 2.9% of the entire workforce, quit their jobs in August. That was a record-breaking month, piggybacking on previous record months. "The Great Resignation" is real, and it can be seen across virtually all industries." via @NPR https://t.co/L7Tb1hXKrP

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

.@Adam_Schaeffer in @InsideSourcesDC: “We must invest in testing our messaging as rigorously and extensively as we did our vaccines." #CovidVaccines https://t.co/BlI5Ag7iFg

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

Hopkins & Mummolo "Assessing the Breadth of Framing Effects": what respondents *say* is effective diff than what *is* effective.

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

Dao v United, juror bias, new legal analytics product. Who are the jurors that penalize plaintiffs based on race? https://t.co/eVjvHiHrPI

[Evolving Strategies @ESinsights]

@kwcollins @wccubbison for all the good it did ...