Absurd radar imagery for U.K. standards. Several supercells ongoing across NE England. Could note a hook on reflectivity just west of Newcastle a few scans ago #ukweather
Friday 26th June:
Thunderstorms are expected to break out once again today across Ireland, N Eng / Scotland & overnight across SE Eng.
Frequent lightning is expected within majority of these storms with potentially supercellular characteristics across N Eng / Scotland.
@andymcpool@DaveThroup Literally all he said was "could be quite impressive" and it could've been if they hadn't died off because it was looking like quite a high lightning rate compared to most storms.
@Unrepentant76@bbcweather On good viewable nights you can often see lightning well before you hear it and it can be quite strong because if there's a strong storm far away it can well light up the whole sky but be miles away.
@BostonWeatherUK@tux1234 Tbf it kinda reminds me of a less widespread version of this night so if it does something you never know. The Scotland and Ireland stuff is very different though.
@BostonWeatherUK@cobblerben@James1hs Probably a misunderstanding of what these people mean as they mean a high chance of something happening rather than a high risk because of large hail etc because that's so rare in the UK we'd barely ever use it.
Pseudo EIR Imagery is a pretty good match to Actual Meteosat imagery at 6pm
This lends confidence to the forecast.
High 850mb Theta-W 20-24C is now advecting over Southern England and up across Midlands, NW England , Wales, Northern England.
Cells will move NW, and then this evening between 8.30-10pm Storms will erupt / Initiate over the Channel close to the IOW, to South Devon, close to the South Coast. These storms will become intense, frequent lightning, highly electrical. They will organise quite quickly into a probable MCS type feature and move North. Tracking north across Central and then Northern England, infact traversing the whole country.
Don't see anything in the imagery or observations that is unexpected. The activity over Biscay confirms plenty of spin and vorticity and cooler air aloft, supporting lapse rates steepening
Things are primed and ready to go bang.
putting it one way .......
"The orchestra is in place, The stage is set and in a few hours time the curtain will rise and the show will begin"
Thursday 25th June:
A severe widespread Thunderstorm outbreak is expected today with our highest warning being issued. Expect frequent lightning, large hail, flash flooding, straight line winds + potentially a tornado.
The heat is going out in a bang... โก๏ธ
The ICON/ARPEGE scenario develops surface based convection across W Ireland from as early as 17:00z
Given the environment, supercells with large hail - & perhaps a tornado - could be possible.
Seems to be a subtle low with sea-breeze driven convergence helping initiation.
And there we go...
Big ESTOFEX Level 2 across the UK/Ireland.
"A level 2 was issued for N Ireland into parts of Scotland and England mainly for large hail with peak size in excess of 5 cm possible. An isolated strong tornado event is possible over N Ireland and SW Scotland."