Chad Stone

Retired Chief Economist @CenteronBudget. Fan of Philly sports and Americana music.

[Congressman Brendan Boyle @RepBrendanBoyle]

I am saddened to report an egregious incident on vandalism took place outside my office. Clearly a disturbed and frustrated individual. You can watch the evidence below.

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

@gbenga_ajilore Welcome to jobs day analysis -- good start

[Chuck Marr @ChuckCBPP]

As part of the 2025 tax debate, Congress needs at a minimum to return the #Child Tax Credit to the success of the Rescue Plan’s expansion https://t.co/hNI3hxbJN9

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

You may notice I have a new handle – after 17 years I’m retiring from the Center on Budget. I’ve enjoyed my time at CBPP and wish my colleagues well in the work ahead!

[Paul Van de Water @PaulNVandeWater]

Fiscal commissions won't work as long as GOP rejects revenue increases. See Simpson-Bowles and Supercommittee. . https://t.co/S97gn8pc31

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

correction: 0.5 ppt above feb '20 rate

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

Today’s was a good #JobsReport, as employers continued to add jobs at a solid rate and the supply of workers looking for jobs grew. This should be evidence to the Fed that the economy is on track for further moderation of #inflation.

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

The 16+ lfpr is affected by the baby boom’s aging out of the labor force. The prime-age (25-54) LFPR was back up to 83.5 percent – a full ppt above its Feb. 2020 rate.

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

Heavily affected by a history of racism and discrimination, Black and Hispanic #unemployment rates have been historically higher than white rates, have risen faster in recessions, and fallen slower in recoveries. But the Black rate was 5.3% in Aug compared with 6% in Feb 2020.

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

Recent inflation news has been very encouraging, which should give the Fed pause about raising interest rates further and risking a recession that would threaten the employment gains of all workers, but especially Black workers. 4/4

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

Today’s job numbers show that the economy’s resilience in the face of Fed tightening in the first half of the year – see my new round up--has continued into the second half. https://t.co/BDAw5oK7d9 1/4

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

Solid job growth and low unempl't are critical for Black workers, who tend to the be last hired in an expansion and first fired in a recession. In July the Black UR, which has been at or below its Feb ‘20 rate of 6.0 percent since Sep ’22, edged down to 5.8 percent. 3/4

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

Fantastic news that the widely respected @pswagel has been reappointed as @USCBO Director—continuing an almost unbroken streak of technical, non-political CBO Directors since its founding in the 1970s. https://t.co/HKwDhUn4vP

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

Evidence of cooling inflation should let the Fed be more attentive to its high-employment mandate, lest the employment and wage gains made recently by Black workers and others who are most susceptible to job losses when unemployment rises are wiped out. 4/4

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

Today’s consumer price index report is very good news on the inflation front and supports the view that the Fed could forgo raising interest rates later this month without endangering its progress in lowering inflation. (1/x)

[Chad Stone @Econ_Cfs]

Core CPI (The index for all items less food and energy) was 4.8 percent higher in June than it was a year earlier, but it rose less than 0.2% in June (1.9 percent at an annual rate), its smallest 1-month increase since August 2021. 3/x