UK Econometrician

I'm a believer in sensible economics and moderate politics. After all the dross we've put up with for the last few years, I don't think that's too much to ask.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@JohanSalomon So, Queen must stay on the c file to prevent the King Escaping to c5, but also provide checkmate if Ke4.
Qc8
If e4 then Qc3#
If Ke4 then Qg4#

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@JohanSalomon Ah no doesn’t work you have Ke4 for black….hmmm

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@SirAthelstan_ @john_kbf @FT That’s not what the OBR says in the article you linked. They have the tax burden going down - ie the net of expenditure and taxation moving more favourably.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@LinLinLarrabee @john_kbf @SirAthelstan_ @FT Not all migrants have family. Evidence show on average migrants have increased productivity gdp per capita, ergo overall income improves so they are not a net drain. Even if a few consume more public services than tax revenue, economic multipliers from their production kick in.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@john_kbf @SirAthelstan_ @FT There is no consistent evidence to suggest that’s the case.

But as you showed by linking a previous article, it seems you real concern is the projection that white people will be a majority in 50 years time - which I think is your real motive in this debate. Racism & xenophobia.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@john_kbf It’s positive not normative economics. This is just the way things work. That’s why ever government regardless of ideology has had to accept migration as there are costs of not doing so.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@SirAthelstan_ @john_kbf @FT It does in this case, in your article the OBR says it’s net positive to public finances looking ahead 50 years. It is true, this may flip if a lot of them stay and retire, as they cite it may be viewed as delaying fiscal pressures. Right now that’s a very good thing.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@SirAthelstan_ @john_kbf @FT From your article “Studies examining the fiscal impact of migrants have produced different results, although in all cases, the impacts have been estimated at less than +1% or -1% of GDP.” You have taken the most negative estimates (as in your cropped screenshot).

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@tomhfh @Otto_English @RKemb Not everyone knows that.

If you don’t challenge such things you risk legitimising it in the eyes of some people as a credible possibility.

This is not something trivial. Imagine a world where the US has slid into dictatorship. It’s not a good one.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@lewis_goodall Tories would lose it I think with a tacit agreement either way. But if it’s three way it’s hard not to see them holding it given their historic majority. Don’t get me wrong, I’m surprised anyone voted Tory but the polls suggest there is bizarrely around 25% support still there.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@DPJHodges @derek_find They may think it’s beneficial to have a President with a similar brand of populism to their own in the White House. I think they’ll get a rude awakening if that happens: Trump will likely pull military support for Ukraine a will let Putin do as he pleases.

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@SirAthelstan_ @john_kbf @FT From your own article “ incoming migrants are more likely to be of working age than the population in general and therefore more likely to be working and contributing to public finances”

[UK Econometrician @EconometricianU]

@SirAthelstan_ @john_kbf @FT Perfectly fine, I read your link and it says the impact of immigration over the long term brings debt down. You cropped some numbers out of it and didn’t read the rest.