Economic Man

Retired RE and special situations investor (GS and own firm). Economics (Bowdoin College/LSE) and Finance (Univ of Mich). Libertarian. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

This is why tennis is the greatest sport in the world.

A 🧵

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@RWMann True

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

This guy better never go above the ground floor of any building.

[Olena Rohoza @OlenaRohoza]

Retired Russian General Leonid Ivashov has delivered a devastating assessment of Vladimir Putin’s leadership, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the deteriorating condition of the Russian state.

Ivashov is no ordinary Kremlin critic. He is a retired general, professor, and geopolitical analyst with decades of experience in Russia’s military establishment. He publicly opposed the invasion of Ukraine before it began, warning that the consequences could be catastrophic for Russia itself.

Now, nearly four years into the full-scale war, Ivashov argues that his worst predictions have come true.

After watching Putin’s lengthy televised appearance, he described a president increasingly detached from the reality experienced by ordinary Russians.

“I saw neither a leader, nor a commander, nor a defender of the people. I saw only a man living in a fairy tale, while the rest of the country is trying to survive on 16,000 rubles a month.”

His assessment of the war was equally severe. According to Ivashov, Russia has failed to achieve meaningful military success while suffering strategic defeats that extend far beyond the battlefield.

He described an economy under growing pressure, industries in decline, a collapsing education system, and scientific institutions struggling to survive.

Healthcare, he warned, is deteriorating as regional governments reduce medical spending. Rising prices are steadily impoverishing ordinary Russians, while declining food quality adds another burden to households already struggling to make ends meet.

But perhaps his darkest warning concerns Russia’s demographic future.

Ivashov portrayed Russia as a country experiencing a profound population crisis, with the war accelerating the loss of working-age men and worsening an already dangerous demographic trajectory.

He was equally dismissive of the Kremlin’s claims about Russia’s international partnerships.

North Korea and Belarus, he argued, cannot provide the economic or strategic support Russia needs. And China, despite Moscow’s constant declarations of friendship, should not be mistaken for a genuine military or political ally.

Having worked with Chinese officials for many years, Ivashov rejected the Kremlin’s portrayal of Beijing as a dependable strategic partner.

His ultimate warning was stark: a strategic defeat in Ukraine could threaten not merely Putin’s political future but the territorial and institutional integrity of the Russian Federation itself.

What makes these remarks particularly significant is their source. Ivashov is not a Western politician, a Ukrainian official, or an opposition activist speaking from exile. He comes from the Russian military establishment and opposed the invasion before the first Russian tanks crossed Ukraine’s borders.

His conclusions are sweeping and controversial, and the specific quotations attributed to him require verification against the original interview. Nevertheless, his longstanding opposition to the invasion illustrates something the Kremlin has repeatedly tried to obscure: criticism of this war has also emerged from within Russia’s own military circles.

The central question is no longer simply what Putin hopes to achieve in Ukraine.

It is how much more Russia will sacrifice in pursuit of those ambitions.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@AndrewCurran_ Ok, it's not Saez and Zucman, but it is their fellow traveler Piketty whose book "has transformed our economic discourse; we'll never talk about wealth and inequality the same way we used to" according to Paul Krugman.

Which tells you everything you need to know about Krugman.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@RicochetRowdy @CathieDWood @ARKInvest She can be reliably counted on to say something absurb but eye-catching. That's why.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

Here is your periodic reminder (from the WSJ this time) that @CathieDWood and @ARKInvest are among the most incompetent fund managers on the planet: 18X the fees of Vanguard's low cost ETF to lag an index by 130%.

A typical Tesla bull: a moron.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@RicochetRowdy @scottlincicome Didn't know him. But I think there is a lot of turnover.

I am probably going back for my 50th HS reunion in Detroit next summer and will take my wife out to Ann Arbor. Specifically, to Zingermann's -- which was founded by the boyfriend of one of my B-school classmates.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

California has on its ballot now a proposition to create loans with a 3% downpayment and below-market interest rates. What could possibly go wrong?

BTW, what happens when you subsidize demand while still suppressing supply? 🤔🤔🤔

@scottlincicome

[Axios @axios]

.@PhillyMayor Cherelle Parker tells @EmilyRPeck that the city hopes to launch its historic mortgage program “before the end of 2026.”

“Imagine getting a mortgage, a 30-year commitment, with no PMI,” Parker said, and accessible “with less-than-perfect credit.” #AxiosLive

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

He's talking to you, Doc.

@AbdulElSayed

[Making Sense Podcast @MakingSenseHQ]

Nobody Should be Associating With Hassan Piker

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

Really leaning into it now.

[FactPost @factpostnews]

Trump: Arnold Palmer was all man. This man was strong and tough. And I refuse to say it, but when he took showers with the other pros, they came out of there and said, 'Oh my god. That's unbelievable.'

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@RicochetRowdy @scottlincicome I think they have massively upgraded the B-school with a huge gift since the days when I was there. We were always envious of the law school.

Did you have Stanley Kon or E. Han Kim for finance? What about Oded Gur-Arie for marketing? He was a riot.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@RicochetRowdy @scottlincicome What year? I was '84. Probably before your time.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@RicochetRowdy @scottlincicome Proposition 37. Basically, 2nd mtges to fund up to 17% of the purchase price, reducing down payment to 3%.

So typical. Subsidize demand (because buyers are the "good guys") but do nothing on supply (because developers are the "bad guys.") End result: higher prices.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

According to a lot of Leftists, Israel is an “apartheid state.” So very interesting to read that the kingmakers in yesterday’s election will likely be the 2 Arab parties. I don’t remember Nelson Mandela being a kingmaker in pre-1994 South Africa.

@JonahDispatch

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

This reminds me - even a bit visually - of "Mad" Maxine Waters praising Franklin Raines (CEO of Fannie Mae, subsequently indicted for accounting fraud) for "outstanding leadership" and "innovations" like no doc loans.

[Axios @axios]

.@PhillyMayor Cherelle Parker tells @EmilyRPeck that the city hopes to launch its historic mortgage program “before the end of 2026.”

“Imagine getting a mortgage, a 30-year commitment, with no PMI,” Parker said, and accessible “with less-than-perfect credit.” #AxiosLive

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

I can't believe how often I find myself using this quote these days.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@Rainmaker1973 That is one of the beauties of free markets: people are free to set up these cooperatives whenever they want. The fact that there are very few of them testifies to the revealed preference of workers/customers/funders for standard, for-profit companies.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@nickgillespie A leading light of the Mises Institute and the Mises Caucus, the thugs who took over the @LPNational for awhile.

When he speaks, the phrase "it sounded better in the original German" really resonates.

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@bsilly3 And this one: "No self-respectin' Southener uses instant grits."

https://t.co/C6bcO9ROmF

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

I repeat: one of the top 3 funniest/wittiest movies of all time.

[𝗖𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗱𝗶𝗲𝘀 @Old_But_Gold50s]

In My Cousin Vinny (1992), Marisa Tomei seemed to come out of nowhere and suddenly become a star. With a role in a low-budget film that was almost a B-movie, she won an OSCAR.

It was a hugely unexpected victory, considering the competition she was up against, but anyone who has seen her performance would agree that she was absolutely deserving of it!

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

@bsilly3 The whole movie is great. And the very unlikely choice of Fred Gwynne as the judge was inspired. This is another jewel of a scene.

https://t.co/x4gz49WKDS

[Economic Man @EconomicManBlog]

The Andrew Jackson of the golf links.

I didn’t have “Constitutional crisis over cutting golf course trees” on my bingo card but I guess when we have a petty moron as President, anything can happen.

@scottlincicome @JonahDispatch

https://t.co/gDc39jdite