"Truth is that most of the time, by the time it becomes a narrative noise that you can hear about, the moment to invest in that has probably already passed. Most of the investors who are looking in this space will have invested in that heavily 12 to 24 months ago."
I had the pleasure of sitting down with @CaieKelley . She's a General Partner at @lowercarbon where she leads growth investing, backing companies at the Series B / C right as they hit their first real commercial proof points. Before venture she was in tech investment banking at JP Morgan and then private equity, so she's the investor you want when a company needs its second factory, not its first prototype. She's also our first growth-stage guest on Fun Raising!
The quote above came up when I asked what she wishes founders understood about VCs. She wasn't saying to ignore the trends. Her point was that when you reshape your company to fit whatever is loud on Twitter or LinkedIn that week, investors can tell, and the lack of authenticity costs you more than being off-narrative. You're picking partners for ten years, and the momentum will shift a few times in that window.
The pitch that sounds most like the moment is usually the one investors have already heard fifty times. The story that's actually yours (why you started, what you believe, who you've convinced to join you) is the one that finds the right partner. It's also the one you can still tell in year six, after the narrative has moved on.
BUT if the trend also is what you are most authentic to, and your super powers shine when talking about it. Then keep it. Just don't change your narrative to fit the current trends.
We also got into:
🔎 How growth investors actually find you (Hint: it's not your cold email)
📈 Why your Excel model matters even though it's always wrong
🏭 Going from a founder who does everything to scaling a real team
🌍 Building the two-sentence test for why the world is better if you win
🗒️ What to do before your first board meeting after the round closes
It was a real treat to dive into the growth stage of investing. Many of the conversations that we have here are early-stage. This is a great one for founders that are a little further along!
Watch the full episode right here on X! Thanks Caie!
A single tree can grow into something incredible
A single cedar can produce many straight shoots that grow upward like a small forest. the technique has been used around kyoto for centuries
Mexico’s National Guard welcomes its newest recruit a 15 pound Chihuahua
Named Comando, the tiny dog is being trained for search and rescue missions and has even been fitted with specially made tactical gear
Often I'll ask people blathering on about whether shrimp or LLMs or what have you are conscious to give me a good, solid definition of what they mean by “conscious” that I can check in an experiment. They basically never can do this.
They then try turning it around and say, well, you can’t measure another person’s consciousness and yet you are happy according them rights. However, there’s a big difference between these cases. I have a pretty good idea of why I would want to accord other humans consideration; there’s no radical new supposition involved there.
You are trying to convince me of something extraordinary, I should give the same consideration to shrimp, but you do it on the basis of analogies and unmeasurable suppositions, not on the basis of extraordinary evidence. Further, you can’t even define what it is that you are telling me I should be worried about.
We have a very, very long history of making horrible mistakes when we build castles out of stacked suppositions and deductions and have no way of testing them against reality; indeed, most such castles in the air turn out to be mirages. When the series of stacked suppositions yields a conclusion that most people would find absurd (say, that of Bentham’s Bulldog, that insects “matter more” than humans) we need far better evidence than a philosophy student’s “airtight argument” that is not, in fact, air-tight at all and has no mechanism by which we can objectively distinguish it from the ravings of a madman.
So, if you can’t actually give me a good way of distinguishing whether your series of suppositions and logical arguments is connected to reality or not, indeed, if you can’t even well define the thing you say I should be deeply concerned about, and cannot give me a way to check your work with some sort of experiment, I’m afraid I'm going to have to pass, not because I am perfectly certain you are wrong, but because I am perfectly certain that if I can’t check whether you’re wrong or not by any obvious means,it becomes very, very easy to be led into nonsensical beliefs with stacked suppositions, so much so that it has proven the rule over the centuries and not the exception.
Surprise! AI is NOT taking recent college grads' jobs!
This was supposed to be the summer it showed up. It didn't. Great detective work by @wu_jane & Robert Fairlie in @nberpubs https://t.co/dhnQptm9ZC
@ArtemisConsort LLMs have provenly demonstrated that reason is a tool, not the answer.
We need to better formalize what reason is to understand it better.
But it’s very clear that worshipping reason which was fashion of the modernism and postmodernism era isn’t right.
@thatboybenagain@ArtemisConsort That's why you need foundational principles and axioms. Otherwise you do not truely believe in anything. You have others half baked ideas floating around in your head.
@ArtemisConsort I remind myself that I am the type of person who could make a compelling argument for almost any position which means I can also talk myself into a bad take if I'm not careful. Its quite humbling
@ArtemisConsort The sophists discovered this 2500 years ago. Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle warned everywhere.
Philosophy was born in distinguishing itself from such clever manipulation of words, which just is sophistry.
A sufficiently smart person can make a compelling verbal argument for any position. My friends and I used to do this as a game in college. You need a memetic immune system beyond just “reason” or you’ll be controlled by the smartest wordcel you were recently exposed to.
@shoe0nhead I am just going to leave this here.
Because it's not JUST offshoring, foreign labor, automation, it's also.....
The W word.
Assaulted on all sides you might say.
@Subtitle_Anime_@mteferest@sakti_kun buta sama dampak sistemik kalau negara ikut melegalkan dan memajaki eksploitasi tubuh perempuan. Jauh banget kapasitas nalarnya.
@reiamondeu@mauvelogy@Glimmerstarmy di saat ekosistem pelacuran ini lu normalisasi dan lu bela, di situlah human trafficking, germo, dan grooming paling gampang nyamar dan berkembang biak.
@reiamondeu@mauvelogy@Glimmerstarmy Itu kenapa gw sebut lu enabler. Karena lu ngasih karpet merah buat industrinya tumbuh atas nama kebebasan individu. Udah paham logikanya kak?
Ku kasih tau pake bahasa bayi:
Mas kawin itu bukan jualan cewek ya adik2. Itu hadiah dari cowok ke cewek.
Cewek boleh pakai sendiri, simpan sendiri.
Kalau ada apa-apa, cewek punya uang jaga-jaga.
Cewek juga senang dikasih hadiah kan.
Apalagi di moment sakral biarpun kalau-
@Subtitle_Anime_@dikaalasenja@sakti_kun Anda sendiri ngambil moralitas dari mana? Manusia tuh gak reliable, subjektif. Setelah menyadari Tuhan ada karena contingency argument gak bisa dibantah, satu satunya moral objektif itu mengikuti Tuhan. Islam satu2nya yg menjawab problem of evil dan moralitas secara holistik.