Ed David Hanna

Economics, geopolitics, civilizations, optimization, sustainability, global economic & security architecture: See “Highlights” section for notable posts.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

Update to Part (1) of Chapter II: Considering the current battlefield dynamics, the sooner a settlement is reached, the better the situation should be for both Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine currently functions as a fundamentally corrupt and tyrannical kleptocracy. In its current form, Ukraine constitutes a black hole, a drain on lives and resources for Ukrainians, Russians, and Europeans. Achieving sustainable peace in Eastern Europe requires a thoughtfully considered plan that incorporates territorial arrangements designed to facilitate cooperation and shared interests, along with the establishment of fresh, competent, and prudent leadership — particularly in Eastern Ukraine — that encourages collaboration between Russians and Europeans.

In my considered estimation, a primary point of contention in the negotiations appears to be the approximately 20% of Donetsk Oblast still under Ukrainian control. For predominantly economic reasons, Ukraine places a significantly higher value on retaining this area than on regaining Russian-controlled territories in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Russia, conversely, holds the opposite position, driven primarily by similar economic considerations and the pressing need to secure freshwater resources for the Donbas.

Russian concerns regarding freshwater sharing are validated by Ukraine’s actions in depriving the Crimean Peninsula of its primary freshwater source through the North Crimean Canal — one of the main catalysts of the conflict that started in 2022. This 400-kilometre canal, a Soviet-era infrastructure project completed in stages between 1961 and 1971, diverted water from the Dnieper River via the Kakhovka Reservoir, supplying up to 85% of Crimea’s freshwater needs for drinking, agriculture, and industry.

On the battlefield, the Russians might be attempting to make a point regarding the freshwater-sharing issue in the Donbas (i.e., the Siverskyi Donets River and its associated canal system), or (and) seeking to secure freshwater sources for the Donbas (Luhansk & Donetsk) through military means in Kharkiv — rather than in the region constituting 20% of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control.

The following updated recommendation offers a potential resolution to this conflict of interest:

Chapter II: Territorial and Political Settlement

(1) Proposed Territorial Arrangements

(A) The oblasts of Lviv, Volyn, **Transcarpathia, Rivne, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Kyiv shall constitute the Republic of Western Ukraine (“State of Trump, Dealmaker in Chief”).
— **The Transcarpathia oblast shall be reunited with the Republic of Hungary on ethnic and historical grounds, unless the Republic of Western Ukraine and Hungary conclude an agreement guaranteeing the rights of ethnic Hungarians residing there, as well as Hungary’s vital interests in the oblast, including energy security.

(B) The oblasts of Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv (in addtion to territory northwest of the LoC in Donetsk oblast), Dnipropetrovsk (in addtion to territory northwest of the LoC in Zaporizhzhia oblast), Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv (in addtion to territory northwest of the LoC in Kherson oblast), and Odesa shall constitute the Republic of Eastern Ukraine (“State of Edward, Guardian of Prosperity”).

(C) The Russian Federation could withdraw from the Ukrainian territories it currently occupies in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts in exchange for Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the portions of Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts) currently under their control. These areas would then become "a neutral, demilitarised buffer zone of shared economic interests," within the boundaries of the Republic of Eastern Ukraine.
— An alternative to part (C) could involve establishing the territorial settlement along the current line of control (LoC), accompanied by a formal agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Eastern Ukraine on the indefinite sharing of freshwater resources in the Donbas (i.e., the Siverskyi Donets River and associated canal system) and other relevant regions.

(D) The entirety of Luhansk oblast, together with territory southeast of the LoC in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, shall form the Republic of Novorossiya and, following a free and fair public referendum, may formally accede to the Russian Federation with subsequent international recognition.

(E) The Crimean Peninsula, including Sevastopol, shall be formally recognised by the United Nations (General Assembly and/or Security Council) and by the United States of America as sovereign territory of the Russian Federation.

Finally, for such a plan to produce sustainable peace, the current Ukrainian regime must be thoroughly cleansed of all elements of corruption and self-aggrandizement — foremost among whom is Zelenskyy and his kleptocratic associates — by whatever means necessary.

Cc: @realDonaldTrump , @JDVance , @marcorubio , @SteveWitkoff , @jaredkushner , @vonderleyen , @EmmanuelMacron , @eucopresident , @KremlinRussia_E , @MedvedevRussiaE , @mfa_russia

[Olena Zelenska / Олена Зеленська @ZelenskaUA]

Kharkiv is once again under a horrific Russian missile attack. Strikes on civilians — ordinary Ukrainians — on residential buildings and shops. Sadly, this is how the new year begins in Ukraine. The so-called “precision” weapons of the terrorist state once again deny our people a normal life, taking away their peace and health. Dozens of people are reported injured. Our thoughts and prayers are with them today.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

I would like to thank those who abused my virtues, as they have motivated significant design improvements.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

@RepThomasMassie No wonder the ladies want you to run for president 😂

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

@bundeskanzler Alles hat ein Ende, nur die Wurst hat zwei.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

@EmmanuelMacron J’ai pas envie de te parler; va voir ailleurs si j'y suis.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

@bundeskanzler Alles hat ein Ende, nur die Wurst hat zwei.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

I would like to thank those who abused my virtues, as they have motivated significant design improvements.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

@margbrennan

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

@drmichaellevin @paraschopra How do I invest in your work, @drmichaellevin?

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

@DD_Geopolitics Der Zug ist schon längst abgefahren.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

@IuliiaMendel Zele should team up with Kallas and write the next season of GOT.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

The diversity that truly matters in a sophisticated society is the diversity of thoughts/intellects and talents, which is what I intend to convey when I use the term.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

If it were up to me, PDEs would be called IDEs.

Why? PDE is simply a mechanical description, while IDE is, you know, poetic and beautiful.

I had to get that off my chest.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

The diversity that truly matters in a sophisticated society is the diversity of thoughts/intellects and talents, which is what I intend to convey when I use the term.

[mira @miranowhere]

Why is diversity pushed only upon white nations

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

If it were up to me, PDEs would be called IDEs.

Why? PDE is simply a mechanical description, while IDE is, you know, poetic and beautiful.

I had to get that off my chest.

[U.S. Fleet Forces @USFleetForces]

📍ATLANTIC OCEAN (May 9, 2019) An unarmed Trident II D5LE missile launches from the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Rhode Island (SSBN 740) off the coast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, during Demonstration and Shakedown Operation (DASO) 29.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

Additionally, universal basic income (UBI) is a flawed concept that would swiftly establish a class of economically unproductive, psychologically purposeless, and — potentially —increasingly entitled individuals, ultimately harming society.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

“Economists just published a mathematical proof” is a significant overestimate.

A competent economist should know mathematical economics and economic psychology very well, but mathematical proofs are beyond the expertise of even the most intellectual of economists.

Balancing the workforce during the rapid development of AI and its integration into the economy is a challenge within the capacities of a diverse yet competent group of intellectuals and policymakers, including technology leaders, financial experts, and economic psychologists.

There should be no surprises or disappointments.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

Thank you for your diplomatic efforts, President Macron.

The discussions to reach an agreement have taken much longer than necessary. The reality is that the longer these discussions take, the worse the situation for the Islamic Republic of Iran becomes, economically and otherwise.

The President of the United States has an effective, alternative strategy. Understandably, his patience with these discussions is wearing thin, and I/we support him if he chooses to proceed with alternative methods.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

“Economists just published a mathematical proof” is a significant overestimate.

A competent economist should know mathematical economics and economic psychology very well, but mathematical proofs are beyond the expertise of even the most intellectual of economists.

Balancing the workforce during the rapid development of AI and its integration into the economy is a challenge within the capacities of a diverse yet competent group of intellectuals and policymakers, including technology leaders, financial experts, and economic psychologists.

There should be no surprises or disappointments.

[Ed David Hanna @EdDavidHanna]

Thank you for your diplomatic efforts, President Macron.

The discussions to reach an agreement have taken much longer than necessary. The reality is that the longer these discussions take, the worse the situation for the Islamic Republic of Iran becomes, economically and otherwise.

The President of the United States has an effective, alternative strategy. Understandably, his patience with these discussions is wearing thin, and I/we support him if he chooses to proceed with alternative methods.