Ed Lalanne

Investor, trader, global macro; Chief Investment Officer, Astra

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

@TheStalwart @joelgombiner Growth fears, strangely

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

There is cause for optimism in the New York Fed and Philly Fed surveys, but hiring expectations in the Kansas City Fed, Richmond Fed, and Dallas Fed surveys were mixed.

8/8

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

Bob, appreciate your thoughts as always. To play devil’s advocate, here are a few reasons to discount the signal from claims relative to prior cycles:

i. undocumented immigrants won’t qualify to file for benefits. A lot of the recent hires and presumably

1/8

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

And of course anyone who follows me regularly knows weekly that the timeliest claims data shows more of the same - pretty much stable firings and continuing claims over the last year.

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

the hiring rate. But as the JOLTS data chart you shared shows, the trend remains lower.

We can see forward looking hiring plans on regional Fed surveys of manufacturing and services. The most recent reports for November incorporate expectations after the Republican sweep.

7/8

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

...the door on conversations about raising the Fed's inflation target

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

U Mich Mean 5-10 year inflation expectations hit a new high at 7.1%. It's the top end of the distribution of survey respondents taking the mean higher. U Mich Median 5-10 year inflation expectations is not breaking higher. No one talks about the mean. The default data point on...

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

...Bloomberg is the median. Newspapers all report on the median. But the Fed has to be watching this very uncomfortably. If it continues higher, it could cause realized inflation to start higher again. This possibility is a reason to slow rate cuts. At a minimum, it will close..

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

@EconBerger @mander_michaud Hi Guy, Amanda's new data is out showing deterioration in Aug. Curious on your thoughts here https://t.co/ho3qIwKtrw

[Amanda Michaud @mander_michaud]

#QLmonthly data have been updated with August's release (https://t.co/8OLPjmp785). Commentary coming after blackout will focus on time aggregation bias and comparison to JOLTS. Enjoy silent graph updates in following tweets, starting with quits and layoffs to non-employment (1/3)

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

@PeterBerezinBCA https://t.co/jYlB8exhAB

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

Great work Stephen and Nouriel!

[Stephen Miran @SteveMiran]

🚨🚨 New from me, joint with @Nouriel 🚨🚨
ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War over Monetary Policy
How Treasury's issuance policies have stimulated markets and the economy and blocked the Fed's efforts to restrain growth and inflation https://t.co/9cUsDVIoEs
/1

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

Super interesting, thank you Amanda

[Amanda Michaud @mander_michaud]

📢Announcing *new* monthly series of quits and layoffs reported by households! We see a notable sign of labor market softening: layoffs have risen steadily and significantly since January 2024. Do I have your attention #JOLTS and #jobsday fans? #econtwitter 🧵1/n

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

@Convertbond @JeffBezos And if Jeff Snider is right about the downtrend the BLS revised away, the chart looks even worse

https://t.co/FqQ9v6ZaeE

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

Jeff says the revisions to the establishment survey look to him like they are revising away a downtrend that started in early 2023. December and January include substantial upward revisions to get up to the smoothed trend https://t.co/UonNxMpufL

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

…(clearly not Mag7) little wiggle room. In 2021 it was “Why are wages rising so fast when there is still slack in the labor market?” 2024’s question is “Why are we seeing layoffs with wages still growing over 4%?” Fairness and money illusion. h/t Akerlof and Shiller

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

Jeff says the revisions to the establishment survey look to him like they are revising away a downtrend that started in early 2023. December and January include substantial upward revisions to get up to the smoothed trend https://t.co/UonNxMpufL

[Ed Lalanne @EdLalanne]

Aside from this issue, I speculate that some of the strength in payrolls in recent months is due to the restart of student loan payments prompting desirable employees to come off the sidelines.

As inflation falls, high wage demands give struggling businesses…