Ed Gewise

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

I already can’t wait for Week 18 so I can take the Bears at whatever line we’re given against the Vikings.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

@_koolade It was always alt lines -6.5 Bears or -9.5 Seahawks. A close game was never in the cards.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

@SandyPlashkes Yeah right. I had him O100 yards at -2150. Made a cool 0.005u.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

BetMGM O/U spiked from 46.5 to 49.5 for a moment. Was that a glitch?

Even at 46.5, I like the under. Not enough to put my 💰where my mouth is though.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

@guyincornfields 100%. Johnson's been trying to get Roush involved since Week 1. Now his hand is forced.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

The worst value for tomorrow is +3 for the Bears.

There are so many factors feeding the matchup tomorrow, but they are all unusually highly correlated. The result is that the winner (more likely to be Seattle) is going to cover by 7+.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

🚨 5 stats you should IGNORE when betting Bears–Seahawks on MNF:

1. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in non-division games this season.

2. The Bears are 8-12 ATS in games kicking off at 8 PM ET or later since 2020.

3. The Bears are 9-3 ATS in November since 2023.

4. The Seahawks are 6-3 ATS as favorites of 3+ points since 2025.

5. MNF home favorites are just 29-36 ATS since 2020.

So many different players (especially QBs), coaches, and circumstances contributed to those facts. Before betting obscure facts, think about the actual story they are trying to tell. If you can't tell a coherent story, then don't bet it.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

And that’s why you hedge when you get a clean opp.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

Big Totals swing in Auburn at Ole Miss. Oh yeah, definitely watching this game. Taking the under, but hoping for a 48 - 50 game anyway 🤷‍♂️

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

And now for the missing link in most bets: the hedge. O/U 48.5 - Done.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

@johnewing @OhioStateFB @BetMGM Buying that half point and taking USC. With that said, USC wins the game.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

As everyone expected before the season, Northwestern is only a 3.5 point dog to Oregon on the road.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

One of the biggest movers of the weekend - Kansas State @ Colorado.

I'm always nervous to snag lines based on QB changes because of the lack of film and prep for the opposing defense. With that said, 3rd stringer on the road...

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

Lamar Jackson's value 👀 (relative to Huntley). Remember, the original line was based on a possible Lamar start. So going from a, let's say 75% chance to 0% chance, swung it 5.5.

[Ed Gewise @Ed_Gewise]

Everyone says the house always wins. But it doesn't have to win against you.

Across 5 sportsbooks, you can find plenty of promos and odds boosts each week. Not all are worth taking, but enough can be to allow you to have a pretty sizeable volume (20+ a week) while maintaining positive expected ROI.

Healthy bettors treat it like a cheap hobby and are fine losing a little bit or breaking even - and plenty are in the green. They get to this point by letting the reckless bettors subsidize their +EV.