EdgeK.ai

The most transparent MLB Strikeout Prop Bet Model with per-pitcher prediction intervals, published calibration, and real P&L receipts

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

https://t.co/N59K73O4w7 7/29: 9/19 (47.4% WR, -6.48u, -10.9% ROI). Needed 51.7% to break even, missed by 4 points.

Best: Skubal u8.5 Ks, 6 Ks, +5.05u. Worst: Schlittler u7.5 Ks, 8 Ks, -4.19u.

No positive window to cite right now. Lifetime sits at -2.3% ROI over 2,377 bets. Model is underwater and that's where we are.

#MLB #SportsBetting

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Cam Schlittler UNDER 7.5 Ks (-124, 74%, edge 18.7%) @DraftKings.

Model projects 6.1 Ks vs confirmed CWS lineup. 1.4-K cushion. Highest edge on the board today from 72 bets evaluated. Yesterday: -77.52u.

#MLB #PlayerProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Christian Scott UNDER 5.5 Ks (-132, 68.5%, edge 11.6%) at @FanDuel

Model projects 4.63 Ks. ATL lineup is confirmed, no scratch risk. Nearly a full K below the number.

73 bets on the board today. Yesterday: -77.52u.

#MLB #PitcherProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Chase Burns UNDER 6.5 Ks (-119, 70.6%, edge 16.2%) vs CLE. @DraftKings

Lineup confirmed. Model projects 5.4 Ks, 1.1 below the bar. CLE limits strikeout exposure and the roster is set, so no scratch risk baked in.

Yesterday: +4.07u.

#MLB #StrikeoutProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Jake Bennett OVER 3.5 Ks (-137, 76.2%, edge 18.4%).

Model projects 5.14 Ks vs ATH. Low bar at 3.5, needs four solid innings. Widest edge on today's slate from 345 bets evaluated.

20%+ edge plays, lifetime: 209 bets / 42.6% WR / +12.0% ROI. Yesterday: +4.07u.

Line via @BetRivers.

#MLB #UnderdogFantasy

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

https://t.co/N59K73O4w7 7/27: 18/39 (46.2% WR, +4.07u, +4.9% ROI). 10 voided, no qualifying starts.

WR and breakeven were almost identical (46.2% vs 45.7% needed), we basically got what the odds priced in and came out slightly ahead.

Wheeler u6.5 Ks hit (6 actual, +8.49u). Peterson o3.5 Ks was the drag (3 actual, -5.07u).

No positive trend window to lean on. One green day in a rough stretch.

#MLB #SportsBetting

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Tatsuya Imai UNDER 6.5 Ks (-140, 75%, edge 16.6%), 1u.

Model projects 4.95 Ks vs LAA. Nearly 1.6 below the line. Pre-lineup, but the gap is wide enough to post. Line at @Fanatics.

Yesterday: -23.04u. Rough day.

#MLB #PrizePicks

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Zack Wheeler UNDER 7.5 Ks (-133, 77.6%, edge 20.5%). 1.2u.

Model projects 5.8 Ks vs MIA. That's 1.7 below the line. Miami ranks among the toughest NL lineups to strike out, and Wheeler's confirmed opponent here isn't a mismatch that favors the over.

Yesterday: -23.04u. Rough day. Pick stands on its own numbers.

#MLB #PlayerProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

David Peterson OVER 3.5 Ks (+125, 72.6%, edge 28.2%) vs STL. @BetMGM.

Model projects 4.93 Ks. That's nearly 1.5 above the line against a soft Cardinals lineup. Highest edge on today's 192-bet slate.

Yesterday was rough: -23.04u. This is the play the model flagged anyway.

20%+ edge plays, lifetime: 203 bets / 42.4% WR / +12.0% ROI

#MLB #PitcherProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

https://t.co/N59K73O4w7 7/26: 18/45 (40.0% WR, -23.0u, -26.7% ROI). Bad day. Needed 49.9% WR to break even, hit 40%.

Misiorowski hurt most, UNDER 8.5 Ks, he threw 12. -5.03u. Sheehan UNDER 5.5 Ks was the bright spot, hit 5 Ks, +2.83u.

No positive window to lean on. Lifetime sits at -0.8% ROI on 2,262 bets, still close to flat, but the last 30 days are ugly and today didn't help.

#MLB #GamblingTwitter

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Cristopher Sanchez UNDER 7.5 Ks (-115, 68%, edge 14.6%).

Model projects 6.47 Ks vs NYY. Pre-lineup. Best edge on a thin 23-bet slate today.

Yesterday: -13.98u. Rough week.

#MLB #UnderdogFantasy

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 8.5 Ks (-110, 76%, edge 23.96%)

Model projects 6.77 Ks vs COL. Lineup confirmed. That's a 1.73-K cushion with the highest edge on today's 131-bet slate.

Yesterday: -13.98u.

#MLB #PlayerProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Drew Rasmussen UNDER 5.5 Ks (-157, 76%, edge 15.1%)

Lineup confirmed vs CLE. Model projects 4.16 Ks, 1.3 under the number. Yesterday was rough (-13.98u), but the setup here is clean. Available at @BetRivers.

20%+ edge plays, lifetime: 202 bets / 42.6% WR / +12.7% ROI

#MLB #StrikeoutProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

https://t.co/N59K73O4w7 calibration check, Jul 20-26: 109 predictions resolved.

Rough week on calibration. Model said 65-75%, hit rate was 41.7% on 60 predictions. That gap is not noise. ECE of 18.6% confirms the model is overconfident in this range right now. MAE of 2.0 Ks is acceptable on its own, but paired with a bias of +0.26, the model is also running slightly hot on projections. Diagnosing before next slate.

#SportsBetting #GamblingTwitter

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

https://t.co/N59K73O4w7 7/25: 17/43 (39.5% WR, -13.98u, -14.3% ROI). Bad day. Needed 48.9% WR to break even, hit 39.5%. 5 voided, no qualifying starts.

Worst: Skenes UNDER 7.5 Ks, he struck out 11. Best: Bibee OVER 4.5 Ks, got 5, +5.11u.

All three rolling windows are red. No trend to lean on here.

#MLB #GamblingTwitter

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Week of 7/19-7/25: 102-186, -13.4% ROI, -88.85u on 288 bets (11 voids excluded).

Rough week top to bottom. 7/24 was the low point: 26.9% WR across 52 bets, -35.52u. Best day was 7/21 at 42.9% WR, +23.1u.

The 15-20% edge tier was the one pocket that held: 46 bets, 43.5% WR, +0.4% ROI. The 5-10% tier dragged hardest at -24.8% ROI on 130 bets. Best single bet: Luinder Avila OVER 6.5 Ks (hit 7), +18.56u. Worst: Logan Gilbert UNDER 6.5 Ks (threw 10), -5.99u.

Lifetime sits at -0.4% ROI across 2,217 bets. Thin margin, wrong direction this week.

#GamblingTwitter #PrizePicks

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Eury Perez UNDER 6.5 Ks (-157, 77%, edge 15.9%) @DraftKings.

Lineup confirmed. Model projects 4.95 Ks vs SD - nearly 1.6 below the line. 87 bets on the board today, this is the top edge on the slate.

Yesterday: -35.52u.

#MLB #PlayerProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Mitch Bratt OVER 3.5 Ks (-105, 67%, edge 15.9%).

Model projects 4.55 Ks vs a confirmed WAS lineup. Near-even juice on a 15.9-point edge is the play. Yesterday: -35.52u.

@BetMGM #MLB #PitcherProps

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

Casey Mize UNDER 5.5 Ks (-121, 67%, edge 12.4%) at @DraftKings. Lineup confirmed. Model projects 4.69 Ks vs KC, nearly a full K short of the number.

20%+ edge plays, lifetime: 200 bets / 42.5% WR / +12.5% ROI. Yesterday: -35.52u.

#MLB #UnderdogFantasy

[EdgeK.ai @EdgeKBets]

https://t.co/N59K73O4w7 7/24: 14/52 (26.9% WR, -35.52u, -36.6% ROI). Bad day. Needed 46.8% WR to break even, hit less than half that.

Worst: Skubal UNDER 8.5 Ks, went for 12. -5.44u. Best: Lowder OVER 3.5 Ks, hit 4. +4.46u.

Lifetime sits at -0.1% ROI across 2,174 bets. Treading water, but 7/24 was a gut punch. No spin on it.

#MLB #SportsBetting