EdgeHawk

The betting data your gut doesn't want you to see.
EV analysis, odds comparison, and sharp insights across NFL, NBA, MLB & more.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

DraftKings Pick6 featuring some stat sliced K lines on four pitchers tonight. We ran the matchups through EdgeHawk to see which ones are actually worth it.

Eovaldi o4.5: Best spot on the board. Oakland is soft (23.4% K rate), he's gone 7 and 8 Ks in two starts against them, lowest BB% of the group.

Williams o4.5: Hottest arm lately (8.0 K avg last 5) but Toronto is 3rd hardest to K and his 11.6% walk rate is a red flag.

Skenes o5.5: Best pitcher, worst price. Line is still a full K above the others, last 5 trending down (4.6 avg, 40% hit rate), Brewers don't chase.

Kirby o4.5: Trap pick. Cardinals are 2nd hardest to K in MLB, he had 2 Ks his only start against them, lowest whiff rate of the four.

A boosted line doesn't mean a good bet. The matchup does.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Monday's MLB slate has some pitching stories worth watching:

ATL @ WSH: Braves have won 6 straight and took Game 1 9-4. Lopez vs Griffin in the rematch.

NYY @ BOS: 44 degrees at Fenway with an east wind. Gil vs Early. Judge is slugging .600 on the season.

CIN @ TB: Reds won Game 1 6-1 and are on a 4-game streak. Chase Burns has been a strikeout machine all season.

MIL @ DET: Brewers without Yelich and Chourio. That lineup is gutted.

#MLB

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

@gabbgoudy @FDSportsbook Ben Rice. 5 HR in 10 games, HR in 4 straight, slashing .338/.800 SLG. Stack him with Judge (9 HR, 3 in his last 5). The NYY/BOS game is the HR game of the night.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Knicks look to go up 2-0 on the Hawks tonight at MSG.

Atlanta's dealing with health questions — Okongwu and McCollum both questionable, Landale ruled out. Hawks need their frontcourt healthy to have any chance slowing down KAT.

Brunson's been averaging 8+ assists over his last five games. If the Hawks can't tighten up defensively, this series could get away from them fast.

#NBA #Knicks #Hawks

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Braves go for the sweep in Philly tonight. Atlanta's won the first two 9-0 and 3-1 — Phillies can't get anything going right now.

Realmuto sidelined, Wheeler still out, and Philly's dropped 4 straight. 53 degrees with wind blowing in at Citizens Bank — not a night for fireworks.

Holmes vs Painter on the mound. Braves lineup has been clicking, Phillies need answers fast.

#MLB #Braves

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Called it on Misiorowski — 9 Ks today against Miami. The stuff is electric.

Perez surprised with 7 Ks of his own though. 14 combined strikeouts in a 5-3 Marlins win. Both arms showed up, Miami just had the bats to back it up.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Brewers look to sweep the Marlins this afternoon.

Jacob Misiorowski has been a K-machine — 33 strikeouts across his first 4 starts including 11 on Opening Day. He draws a Marlins lineup that's been struggling at the plate.

Eury Perez counters for Miami but his control issues have kept him in short outings all season.

Pitching mismatch favors Milwaukee even with a banged-up lineup.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Today's afternoon MLB pitching mismatches worth watching:

CIN @ MIN
Taj Bradley: 31%+ K-rate, Reds striking out 25% of the time. Could be a big K day.

NYM @ CHC
Mets have lost 9 straight. Soto on IL. Cubs won 12-4 yesterday in the same matchup.

KC @ NYY
Warren's ground-ball heavy approach vs Cameron's contact-first style. Two very different pitching philosophies.

Three games. Three pitching stories. Research in minutes, not hours.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

@EvanHAbrams @ActionNetworkHQ @ActionApp Without Doncic and Reaves that's a massive chunk of perimeter creation gone. LeBron's going to have to score first, pass second tonight. This isn't 2006 LeBron dragging a roster, but the math is starting to look similar.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

@CamporterTSR @JonRothstein @FDSportsbook @FanDuelResearch Auburn's not a blue blood, they just play like one lately.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Ran this through EdgeHawk in about 3 minutes. 5.2% edge on the Ks line, under 7.5 runs also showing value at -102.

5 free research runs if you want to try it yourself. No card. https://t.co/Xv5fVXVT7G

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Cole Ragans has a 32.2% strikeout rate across 87 batters this season. The Tigers strike out at a 23.8% clip.

His line tonight? Over 6.5 Ks at -138.

He put up 8 in 5.2 innings his last time out. The data likes this one.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

@statmuse 7 of his last 10 over 25. Season average is 25.2 but he's at 31.7 over the last 6. Current line is 26.5, the market hasn't caught up.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

@ActionNetMLB Chapman's hitting .290 with a .419 SLG through 16 games this season. That 7/10 career line vs Singer with 5 XBH isn't a fluke, Singer's WHIP is 1.24 and Chapman doesn't chase (3.73 P/PA). If his hits line is anywhere near 1.5, that's the play tonight.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

Texas vs NC State tonight might be the most statistically identical matchup in the tournament.

Texas: 83.8 ppg / 76.8 opp / +7.0 diff
NC State: 83.7 ppg / 76.5 opp / +7.2 diff

Both limping in. Texas 1-4 in their last 5, NC State 2-6 down the stretch.

They played in November. Final score: 102-97. Tonight's total is set at 158.5.

#MarchMadness

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

@Covers Near-identical defensive profiles, UMBC allows 67.0 ppg, Howard 67.8. Both grind.

The split: KenPom has UMBC 80 spots higher (185 vs 207) on schedule strength. But Howard's on an 8-game win streak and has the slightly better point differential (+9.7 vs +9.2).

True coin flip.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

The 1-4 seeds might be chalk, but the 5-12 matchups are where the bracket breaks. Five teams seeded 9th or lower have a better point differential than their opponent:

High Point (+19.7) vs 5-Wisconsin (+7.1)
Saint Louis (+17.7) vs 8-Georgia (+10.7)
Akron (+14.9) vs 5-Texas Tech (+7.8)
McNeese (+13.6) vs 5-Vanderbilt (+11.8)
Utah State (+12.2) vs 8-Villanova (+6.4)

The double-digit favorites might hold. The mid-seeds are where the chaos lives.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

@UnderdogNBA Capela's averaged 15 min/game this season. In his 20+ minute games, the scoring scales (6.7 ppg) but the rebounds don't (6.0, same as his low-minute games).

Lakers are 4th in the NBA at limiting opponent boards. Points over boards tonight.

[EdgeHawk @EdgehawkAI]

31-1. Ranked #20. Averaging 90.7 ppg, 2nd in the entire country. 4th-best offensive rating in college basketball.

And they're getting 7.5 points against a 20-13 ACC team that finished 11th in their own conference.

The market is pricing the conference gap. The data says Miami (OH) can flat out score.