A few weeks ago saw an Instagram reel, the creator said, very confidently, that doing a SIP every month won’t build wealth. The smart way, is to invest only when the Nifty PE ratio is below its historical average and stop when it’s above.
It sounds smart. Buy when it’s cheap, stop when it’s expensive.
I wanted to verify this with historical data with the help of claude code.
In their quest for Tax at any cost
Indian Babus and @FinMinIndia will destroy any good initiative
Sachin in a good friend and was excited about the Gift City move and infact had moved some family also to Ahmedabad.
Now they will again relocate to other jurisdictions
Altiva Hybrid Long-Short Fund completes one year since launch today. It returned 9.36%. The arbitrage fund category averaged 5.8%.
One year is not enough to judge. But so far the 'plus' in arbitrage plus has held up. I went through the fund's September factsheet and presentation to see where it came from.
What does the fund do?
It runs four strategies. Arbitrage and covered calls. Fixed income. Special situations - IPOs, open offers, buybacks, QIPs, mergers. And other derivative trades, mainly straddles and strangles. It can also hold REITs and InvITs.
Where is the money right now?
As of 30 September: 38% in arbitrage and covered calls, 41% in fixed income, 12% in other derivative trades, 5% in REITs and InvITs, 2% in special situations.
So is it an arbitrage fund with extras?
Less than the label suggests. The fund says plain arbitrage has stayed limited because spreads are thin. Most of that 38% is covered calls and puts. You own a stock and sell someone the right to buy it from you higher up. You get paid up front and give up the rally beyond that price.
Straddles and strangles work the same way. You get paid as long as the stock does not move too far in either direction.
And the debt?
Yield of 8.17%, with about 1.4 years of duration. Most of it is T-bills and AAA paper. But about 8.7% of the fund is in AA and AA+ bonds. Muthoot, Manappuram, Piramal Finance, JSW JFE Kalinga Steel and Jubilant Beverages are among them. The mandate allows up to 20%.
How did it hold up when markets fell?
In September the Nifty 50 fell 6.06%. The fund fell 0.72%. In March its benchmark, a 50:50 mix of Nifty 50 and debt, fell 6.34%. The fund fell 1.53%. Two down months out of eleven.
Where can it go wrong?
The presentation lists the cases itself: a sharp bull market, extremely volatile markets, a sharp rise in interest rates. Selling options earns small amounts steadily and loses on big moves. A deal can fall through. A bond can be downgraded. None of these has tested the fund yet.
Anything else?
Minimum ₹10 lakh. Money goes in and out only on Mondays and Wednesdays. Base expense ratio is 0.56% direct and 1.24% regular, before brokerage and transaction costs.
Hold for more than 12 months and gains are taxed at 12.5%. Sell earlier and you pay your slab rate, not the 20% an arbitrage fund pays. As of today, the earliest investors have crossed that line.
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All Transcript Editions
https://t.co/jOuzHNcvNN
Latest
https://t.co/hGtyhvh0ar
Three Foundations Editions:
The Chief Problem
https://t.co/aZQZCYAIkl
Valuations Matter
https://t.co/XTgwVopyAB
Narratives Follow Prices
https://t.co/ZDlyEMvZ5j
Corrections correct our expectation
That markets will earn high returns every year
It doesn’t
It does - for all who know that markets fluctuate & who are cautious when returns are very high and hopeful when low
Nifty will touch x-y-z lacs in 20 years
Don’t ask who said it. Ask whether it survives examination.
Don’t blindly follow it because some body said it. Do the maths.
What’s the cagr needed?
If it’s more than 10-12%
Be very very sceptical
WHY POOL MONEY?
In the 18th century, #Diversification was difficult for small investors.
Pooling money allowed #investors to access a broader basket of #investments.
✨ Takeaway:
Mutual funds were born to solve a very old problem: #Diversification.
The world’s 1st #MutualFund was created in the #Netherlands in 1774 by merchant Adriaan van Ketwich.
He launched Eendragt Maakt Magt (Unity Creates Strength), pooling small investors’ money to diversify risk and invest in safe assets like bonds.
#MutulfundHistory
The name of the world’s 1st #MutualFund itself carried an investment philosophy:
Eendragt Maakt Magt
Investors pooled money and participated in a diversified portfolio.
✨ Takeaway:
#Diversification is an old idea wearing a modern name.
Samir Arora's advice to young investors -
Don't make the stock market your profession. Avoid day trading.
Professional fund managers have access to company management, analysts and strategists.
Retail investors often rely on secondhand information from Youtube and social media.
Managing investments yourself for 20-30 years is extremely difficult.
Build a career, earn well and invest systematically.
If you have the time, expertise and conviction to outperform the market, manage your own portfolio.
Otherwise, mutual funds can be a practical route.
(From the Sonia Shenoy Podcast.)
WhiteOak Capital has a new NFO open Sept 28 to Oct 12. Diversified Equity Small Cap Active FOF. Not another small cap fund. A fund that holds other small cap funds. Here's the part most people will skip in the tax section.
Dear Investor,
Data helps us make better decisions. But it can also shorten our time horizon.
Think about the things we hold patiently: FDs, single malts, private businesses, even ancestral furniture in our homes. None of them come with a live NAV flashing on our phones every second.
Stocks and mutual funds are different. We can check them anytime. And because we can, we do.
Here's the irony: volatility rises the more often you look. The investment hasn't changed. Only the frequency of observation has.
Maybe the answer is to evaluate investments over the horizon they were designed for. An overnight fund can be judged daily. An equity fund probably can't.
On a lighter but no so light note, imagine if your house had a live NAV. It wouldn't become more volatile. You'd just notice the volatility more. Then you'd check it ten times a day, compare it with your neighbour's, obsess over whether you paid the right price, and have the occasional anxiety attack.
The house wouldn't have changed.
Only your experience of owning it would.
Love,
Zindagi