Ravi

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Thanks, Ozzie cousin . She sent us [email protected] . (She gets her smarts from her mother's side; the Rikhye side is - er - rather low on IQ, myself included.) Read the whole thing. It's quite dense, but will tell you a lot about oil prices.

It provides additional material to my general question of why oil is still so high despite supplies from Gulf being normal and a step-up in production of other countries. Basically, I gather it takes 2 months for a price reduction to reach the gas pump customer: the supplier is paying what the price was two months ago.

Further. the U.S. Energy Information Administration says because of the political uncertainty, prices are likely to remain high into 2027. Also inventories have to be topped off.

BTW, Hormuz is on the way to irrelevance because no one wants any more to be at risk to the whims of Gulf politics. Once I get a handle on what's happening to reduce the dependence of Hormuz I'll put up a short note.

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Meanwhile, my President has been mumbling about a short, sharp resumption of the Iran War.

I don't know how many times I have to say this before I lose what little IQ I have left: in coercion, you DO NOT signal a short campaign. The priority of Iran's leadership is the preservation of the existing rulers. By telling them in advance that Iran's pain will be short, you are signalling that all they have to do is grin and bear it for a few more days. So the outcome or a renewed strikes will have no result.

All this does is two things.

(a) A further degradation of Iran's N-weapons program, which is already pretty degraded
(b) Give Bibi more cover during his election, and more time to degrade Iran's proxies.

But you are not going to get regime change. Someone has suggested it will take a LOOOOONG campaign of covert action to finish the regime. I get the impression they mean YEARS, not months and certainly not weeks.

US objectives are praiseworthy, but there are costs too. I think a tight blockade of Iran combined with subversion will show results at the end of this decade. And the US will have to stick to its track for some years into the 2030s.

One of the costs is that much greater damage to the American polity - the people's trust in the government and institutions, already collapsing. will be further dangerously undermined.

Mind you, 80% (at a guess) of the damage is due to Mr. Trump's misadventures quite apart from Iran. This is an issue where I am not an "expert" so I have to wait and see and learn more before sounding off.

Please consider the US has already developed cheap stand-off weapons and is going all-out to produce them. If anyone asked me (which would be a shock) I'd say keep the pressure up but don't go hot for at least
2-3 more years.

As Yoda of Star Wars would say "Patience, my young pup". Or is that Surfer Master from Doonesbury parodying Yoda?

It's not easy in America to tell what reality is.....

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Starlink Ukraine is still limited above speeds of 160 kmph, Zelensky says.Ukrainian drones can still go faster than 160 kmph, but lose connectivity for two minutes. When they drop to 150 kmph or below they can pick up the signal again.

Now frankly, I have no clue as to what's going on. Trump says he asked Musk to lift the restriction. With no result. Why Trump and Elon are pointing at each other is also hard to tell. I dont see what Elon gains by defying Trump is difficult to see, so it's probably safer to assume its Mr. Trump in charge but not wanting to take open responsibility. What that means, I have no clue. All I can say is that Elon will face the music in 2030 when Europe's link is turned on. I can't see the Euros just forgiving him.

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From Washington Post: "Breakthrough vaccine for the deadliest skin cancer cut risk by almost half
The vaccine used against melanoma is based on mRNA technology that helped end the coronavirus pandemic."

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TWZ discussed possibility air strikes on Iran are about to resume https://t.co/TWdukwSCV5

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US deploying inexpensive Rusty Dagger (Block 40) ground-launched cruise missiles, 1-200 lb warhead, 300-500 miles range (depending on launch profile); 10,000 will start arriving in 2027 over three years. Block 20 is air launched version already in service with several air forces, including Europe.

It's fascinating to see how the weapons development profile has been shortened. Mind you, low cost cruise and ground-to-air missiles were already under development before the Iran War but there has been a huge speed up in missiles and drones. Especially the latter. Looks like quantities will not be an issue in the next air war. Shows what US can do if it puts its mind to it.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

This is from several articles in https://t.co/DcMDtjiZl6. The B-21 bomber is being considered for an air-to-air role. Either controlling fighter drones. Or carrying 1,500-km air-to-air missiles, at a guess around 40. (The F-15E is thought to be able to carry a maximum of 18.)

What is this miracle 1500-km AAM? It could be the AIM-174. As the SM-6 it has a range of around 300-km ship-to-air, but in the air-to-air role it would have a greatly extended range. It could be the Malice AIM-474 now under development. It could be a 2-stage AIM.

The idea is to stay well out of the range of Chinese carrier air defense aircraft with long-range missiles. Or stay out of range of land-based fighters with long-range missiles.

Its too early to tell what will happen, but think B-21/1500-km AAM.

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Dr. Hamid Hussian tells us Pakistan Air Force No. 17 squadron with JF-17 is flying for Saudi Arabia in strikes against the Houthis.

Two KC-135 refullers flown by Metrea have been seen over India. Presumably on wet-lease for air-to-air refueling training for the Indian Air Force. India is to be congratulated for keeping up with its air refueller training in a pragmatic way while it thrashes out the question of a six refueller buy, but we may ask why this simple and pragmatic solution was not implemented earlier. Of course, asking India to be pragmatic is easier than landing astronauts on the moon. And when a minimum of 18 refuellers is required, six new ones are not going to cut the cake. India has six Boeing 767-300 refuellers (2nd hand air frames) under conversion by Israel's IAI and part of the work is being done in India. IAF is supposed to have 6 Il-78 Midas refueller, we may doubt if even two are available at any one time. Midas can transfer 105 tons of fuel, whereas the 767-300 can transfer 90 tons.

23-million bbl/oil went through Hormuz (last known) which is more than the usual maximum. Given there has been demand destruction due to price rises since the Iran war began, why is gasoline still twice as expensive at the pump in the US? Can any reader explain?

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Was it aliens? Starlink for Ukraine was mysteriously restored. Since both Mr. Trump and Elon have said they know nothing about why it was slowed down, it must have been aliens who restored it.

Actually, it simpler than that. Elon and our Prez are both aliens. It was Elon's idea and he talked about it quite openly. Mr. Trump gave the order. Then Mr. Trump had to face the question: why is America's Prez aiding and abetting Russia, America's enemy? The why is still not known. And once again, the Prez said he's not importing Russian diesel: Russia will export it to the world and that will bring down the world price. Mr. Trump will not be violating any sanctions.

Problem is, Russia was already exporting as much diesel as it could export, bypassing US/EU sanctions by using shadow tankers. The price is so high because no deisel is being exported from the Gulf via Hormuz: the Gulf refineries have been damaged by Iran in retaliation for US/Israel/Gulf attacks and Iran and the blockade on Iran ships. Is the price high because Ukraine has taken down half of Russia's diesel refineries.

Obviously, this must have had some effect on prices. Then - it's back to aliens again - why was the price so high BEFORE US struck Iran and before Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries?

I don't know, but a good guess would be someone is manipulating the market? Who? I have no clue. But think for a second. Iran's oil is off the market and it's exports 2-3% of world consumption. Otherwise Gulf oil is flowing under US naval protection. So why is gasoline still twice as expensive? It's got to be the danged aliens again.

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Finland has opted out of the world ban on land mines and is to produce 1 million to protect itself against Russia. They will be laid in an emergency, not in peacetime. TWZ says "At the same time, anti-personnel mines would form only one part of a much broader defensive system incorporating artillery, airstrikes, engineering obstacles, fortifications, and reserve forces. It should be noted that Finland also has a considerable armory of anti-tank and anti-vehicle mines, most of which are of local manufacture." https://t.co/HP5R0gteef

US has cleared an $800-million package of naval weapons including 4 M-41 VLS launchers to upgrade current Finnish icebreaker corvettes. Possibly future ships will have the missile package. The launchers are 8-cell quad-packed Sea Sparrow SAM, but can take missiles from SM-2 to Tomahawk. The 4 corvettes to get the Mk41s already have 1 x 57mm gun, 8 x Gabriel V SSM 2-300 km range, torpedo tubes, and can take 100 mines each if required to seal off Baltic approaches.

Meanwhile, Russia is building a new 6000-man base 100-miles back from Finnish border and is re-equipping a tank depot with T-90M tanks.

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https://t.co/zFHuxiwove The true wingspan of B-21 is 152' +/- a few feet. much larger than the 130-feet most have estimated, says TWZ with obvious satisfaction: they'be been maintaining its a lot larger from the startr.

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US considering 125 B-1 buy versus 100 planned (a bigger buy was already planned for when it began production).

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

So Elon (owner of Starlink) says he didn't order a slowdown of the real-time information of Russian attacks via his network. Mr. Trump says he doesn't know who ordered the slowdown.

So here we are in middle school recess (ages 12-14) and everyone is going "Who? Me? Not me!"

Except we are not in middle school recess, but at the highest levels in the US Government, and people are behaving like would be juvenile delinquents.

We get the government we deserve, and I'd ask my readers to do some introspection and ask themselves: how did the United States, finest country in the world, get to the sewer?

BTW, Ukraine says its down to exactly TWO Patriot missiles because the US has cut supply. I don't want to play amateur Perry Mason, Detective. But does this figure of two include what missiles US many have authorized as a transfer from its allies? I do understand that right now noone is willing to let go of the Partiots in their inventory, but an answer to my question would be good to know.

Meanwhile FP 7x anti-missile missile should be in field testing with full deployment slated for the first half of 2027. But you should read https://t.co/yI3Gc8VRH3 for a sober assessment of the program's status.

How is the German IRIS-T doing? https://t.co/IzUIh5YBcI Claims are 95% + accuracy. The problem is the range of the two versions is 12km and 40km. Though Diehl is developing a 100-km version. As a trade off against the range, it is a very fast-response system. It is 10%-15% as expensive per round as Patriot - I presume 10% is the short range version; and I'm guessing the 100-km version will be 25% per round compared to Patriot.

US has not entirely left Ukraine in the lurch (though it's playing plenty of dirty pool.) See below. The package 3 missiles: an updated-guidance S-300. something called GAM-67 (GAM = Ground to air missile) of which no details are revealed, and a laser guided missiles (also no details). Said that 100+ missiles a year production, which seems positively pathetic. Just 8+ a month if the figures are correct.

GAM-67 ( later AGM-48) Skybolt of 60+ years ago (B-52m N-missile 1500 km was a different missile!)

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

I suggest you read this article. After SIX DECADES (A bit short of 59 YEARS) India finally ended the Marxist insurgency that at it's peak infected about a third of India's districts (counties). https://t.co/cNMSuStd0l

It's not well written and confusing for non-Indians because it's impressionistic and very short on facts.

The pont is India did it.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Oh uh jeez blooper incarnate: X-15 flew with TWO fuel tanks, and the aim was to hit Mach 7.4. But the heat friction was such it never made it beyond Mach 6.7. which holds the record for fastest manned flight. Sorry about that/

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

President Trump signed permission to import diesel from Russia on October 16, 2026.

In doing so, he has violated the wishes of Congress.

"Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act (H.R. 6968): This law codifies and bans the importation of Russian energy products—including crude oil, petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and coal. Terminating the ban requires presidential certification to Congress that Russia has ceased military aggression and withdrawn from Ukraine, followed by a congressional review period." Signed by President Joe Biden on April 8, 2022.

President Trump has already told us his response. (a) He is not violating the act because it's only a temporary waiver. The Act still stands. (b) He is allowed in national emergency to make exceptions to Congressional laws. The emergency is the high price of diesel.
https://t.co/UEEgfxXNPD

Now, just because Prez says a thing is a national emergency doesn't make it so. As this is too technical for non-specialists like myself, I suggest you read https://t.co/rBD5rAsB6n

As the full deal will at most reduce prices by 2%, it is likely Mr. Trump is doing a "dont show, instead tell" for which he is famous - i.e., theatre.

I'm not sure how this plays out because 2%, IMHO, cannot change voters' minds by November 6, when the mid-terms take place.

The Senate is free to bring up another bill blocking this "national interest" waiver. This is a bipartisan issue - additional technical issues here about bringing bills.

If a Senate bill does not receive two-thirds of votes from the number of senators sitting, the President can veto the bill. It can be resubmitted, and if two-thirds of Senate and House pass the bill, it is a veto-proof majority not requiring Prez signature. (Phew. No wonder I prefer simpler subjects like why hypersonic aerial vehicles can cover a much more extend range than can be inferred from the fuel burn.)

Besides all this yak, an importer faces legal sanctions if they violate the Congressional act. Prez can issue them a pardon, but - here's more complication - the issue can be revisited within 5 years, no case law covers how the Supremes would rule if a case would be brought but obviously there is a limit on pardoning power. Else Prez could murder some and then pardon himself. Importer is also liable to state laws and civil suits (dont know if they apply here) because by accepting a pardon you admitted to your guilt. Does an importer want to go through all this?

More to the point, does Russia have diesel to spare? About half its refining capacity if knocked out. Can Russia reliably deliver? What if Ukraine sabotages delivery ships?Etc etc

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I just found out there was a plan to attach a fuel tank to an X-15 to extend its range? The X-15 already holds the fastest human flight - Mach 7.4. Will let you what I find.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Something is a-foot politically. Maybe I'm being premature, but I think Congress will take back appropriating control of money and curb the President's powers. Obviously, we'll know better on November 6, 2026, but a revolt is brewing. Probably I am the last person to know, ha ha.

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US brought into production an anti-drone drone, medium sized, within 150 days. I believe it is at the European front line. Initial units at $15,000 with hopes to bring it down to $3000.

You may recall (smirk smirk) me telling you a few months ago not to assume drones are the end of armour, because anti-drone weapons would soon proliferate. Its happening faster than I thought possible.

Also please note that the US Army has asked for a laser weapon to fit ANY army vehicle. Its a question of doing the job, anti-drone lasers in the 25-50 kW range are already widely available, and 150- to 500-KW lasers are being deployed. 1-MW weapons are under development. 5-MW air borne lasers were being tested 30 years ago (YAL-1), Keep this in mind when talking about space-based weapons for ABM defense. Noone will need 10,000s of ABMs. A few hundred orbital lasers will do the job. And dont be suprised to see 10MW-20MW ground based systems by 2030s.

You will recall maybe around three decades ago, to counter ATGMS tanks began equipping with "shot-gun" type weapons. So the usual talk of a $ 50,000 ATGM making $3-million tanks obsolete is no longer heard. https://t.co/PSGkcv7kce

Same with drones. Of course drones will get more sophisticated - as will anti-drone weapons. A tank with an anti-drone laser can handle several drones with ease.

So you see that the "woe is me how can we fire $5-million Patriots to down $30,000 drones" has become irrelevant in two years. Aside from which Patriot type weapons are coming down to $1-million and less. And people have "discovered" that 30 to 50mm automatic cannon on tank chassis can work fine, as well as keep up with armor. Also very useful abgainst IFVs.

Note that US Army is introducing many types of AAA SP weapons to protect airbases, cannon+SAMs. As far as I am concerned, the question is how many platforms per division will you use - 24, 36, 48, I leave you to figure out the hard stuff.
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An F-22 fighter has controlled a YF-44 fighter
drone in flight. Soon you'll have 4 manned fighters controlling 32 fighter drones, which will bring to an end my worry that we (US) dont have enough manned fighters.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

I'm not sure what to say. Elon (he of Starlink fame) implies he had nothing to do with sudden Ukraine Starlink that delayed warning of incoming missiles. He suggests maybe the US had something to do with it. Since I have no knowledge of how Starlink works (I thought the company controlled speeds?) I have nothing useful to say.

Read what https://t.co/dMYTq62Ft9 has to say. It says a total breakdown of Ukraine internet is unlikely on account of Russian attacks as it is decentralized and nodes are easily rebuilt.
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Deutche Welle says German plans a new naval base at Emden. Currently German Navy has only Wilhelmshaven. Bremen is under consideration as a millitary logistics naval base.

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US Ambassador to Greece has stepped down after a GOP donor said she asked him to pay off a $100,000 bill. Donor said he has already given her $300,000 but she had done nothing for him. I guess the day of gentlemen not telling is Ov-ah. BTW, isn't it illegal to pay money to an ambassador to get your work done?

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I thought you'd never ask: https://t.co/1pq1oN0Nno Daily Mail says JD Vance is fave for GOP Press 2028 and Rubio for VP. Obviously I didnt read the article, I don't even know who these people are. In case you are wondering about Democrats, I have zero idea. All I can say is Dems are on a sticky wicket (what IS a sticky wicket) because a whole bunch of them are people with their panties in a twist for absolutely fascist lefts and the rest of the Dems are who? No idea. I was hoping they were planning to nominate me: I think the Prezzy desk would make a neat space for an HO model train layout and for the rest I'd let the experts run the show. The Rose Garden would make a nice setting for a G scale layout.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Today's update is not much of an update because there is too much going on I can make no sense of.

The first and most important is that US has sold Ukraine down the river by buying diesel from Russia.

(a) US is a net diesel exporter. 300,000 ton is barely two days of US exports. Of course the US deal is for increasing amounts of diesel going to 1-million tons a months. But 60%+ of US diesel goes to Latin America. uS diesel prices rose when US attacked Iran: Its got nothing to with Russia embargoed diesel. Russia does not have a diesel shortage because of the US/EU embargo, but because of Ukraine attacks on Russian refinaries. which has created a severe shortage at home.

(b) If US prices come down by a few cents, its not going to change the prices before the November 6, 2026 election.

(c) US produces, I believe ultra low sulfer diesel. Is Russian diesel of the same quality? If not, how can US use it and still meet US environmental standards? Is US going to lower its environmental standards to save a few cents per gallon?

(d) Russian sales embargo has been set by some rule passed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham (I think). Can President Trump unilaterally allow the import of Russian diesel?

(e) Can he say, for example, there's a national emergency? But what is the emergency when prices have gone up due to US attack on Iran. Not because of US embargo on Russia! Will Senate allow him to maintain national emergency when 60% of Americans support Ukraine, 20% have no opinion, and 20% are against aiding Ukraine?

(f) When Putin has refused to agree to an energy ceasefire (despite have knocked out most of Ukraine energy generation). why should Zelensky agree to an energy ceasefire on his part? He gains nothing.

(g) Does Trump think he can frighten Ukraine by blocking arms? EU will only be too happy because it expands its penetration of Ukraine arms market. What is is exactly US is supplying that Ukraine cannot do it without?

There are so many unanswered questions Among them: is Trump doing his usual performance art to impress Americans? IMHO, It's too late Americans have seen through Mr. Trump (he's kept his word on stopping immigration, which has created a labor shortage and boosted inflation. He has also done a lot on shifting America into an anti-woke phase. Do Americans care most about the anti-woke than inflation? I don't see it. Maybe I'm wrong.

The most frustrating thing is that the special oil press is giving us a very partial picture of oil. I'm not blaming anyone; they get to charge tons and tons for their closed market discussions. They have to make money too!

So here I am wasting time trying to find worthwhile information - which I could if I focused just on that. But I'm supposed to be doing defense/national security - for which I don't get paid either!

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Don Hill, Ukraine expert, tells us in his blog on October 12, 2026:

Ukraine’s Lima EW system neutralizes 70-95% of the radio-guided drones that are within range. They were able to destroy the Kinzhal missile by providing it with false coordinates that caused it to change directions so rapidly at high speed that it broke apart in midair. It is no longer being produced. Last week, two Iskander missiles were spoofed and diverted into the Dnipro river. It is much more difficult to jam the Iskander missile than it was the Kinzhal.

There have been no reports of other nations building EW ground systems to counter ballistic missiles. Germany is building a $41 billion system that would use lasers and jamming to defend against hostile satellites and ballistic missiles. The system would not create additional space debris. The lasers would target ground-based components.

The Kinzhal was more susceptible to ground jamming than the Iskander because of the positioning of its antenna. Also, drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles try to eliminate receiving signals from the wrong direction (the ground) and electronically focus on receiving signals from the right direction (the satellites). Receiving a jamming signal from a satellite would be more difficult to block.

Ukraine is short on air-to-air missiles so they are using R-73 and much older R-60 missiles, some of which date to the 1960s. Some of these missiles are in such a poor state that they are exploding on launch and destroying the MiGs firing them. This has happened ‘several’ times.

Ukraine has been using the Turkish Korkut twin 35mm cannon air defense system. They say it is effective against drones and plan to buy more.

The Firefly bomb guidance kit is attached to a variety of munitions and allows Ukrainian drone operators to drop from an altitude of 500 meters and hit with precision. The higher altitude increases the chances of the drone surviving and the $200 kit can be attached to a Aerorozvidka-made 9 kg munition designed to penetrate dugouts and detonate on a delayed fuze.

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Excerpts from https://t.co/YR3PcGPqjr

The world is flooded with debt, but while the U.S. and Europe have caused angst on global markets lately, China’s fiscal situation isn’t looking so great either.

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In fact, China’s debt has shot up so much in recent years that interest payments on all its borrowing are commanding a bigger share of public spending.

Debt-servicing payments will account for 19.2% of the central government’s general public budget this year, up from 12% in 2014, according to new Conference Board estimates cited by the Financial Times.

That tracks with a separate report earlier this year from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which found that 19% of Beijing’s spending is earmarked for interest on debt. That’s more than the 14% of the U.S. federal budget that goes to interest costs, though less than Japan’s 25.6%.

CSIS added that China’s spending on interest payments skyrocketed 341% between 2013 and 2025, faster than any other major budget category. By comparison, total spending jumped 102% in that span, with outlays on social security and employment up 207%, science and technology up 137%, and defense up 141%.

To be sure, U.S. debt-interest spending looks grim, too, and has surged about 390% since 2013 to $1 trillion, which also tops the Pentagon’s budget.

But the world’s two biggest economies have been diverging in key ways with implications for future growth and indebtedness.

The U.S. economy is accelerating, helped by the AI boom, and despite high inflation, resilient consumers have continued to spend. Unemployment is low and signals full employment, while stock markets are at or near record highs.

Of course, hyperscalers are racing to issue bonds to fund their data centers and chip purchases, but they are also raising money with fresh stock offerings and IPOs.

Meanwhile, China’s GDP has been decelerating and is on pace to undercut its annual target of 4.5% to 5%. And while export-facing sectors are growing at a fast clip, trade partners are putting up barriers; Chinese consumers remain reluctant to spend; investment is weak; the property sector is still digging out from an epic crash; and Chinese stocks have been anemic.

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Beijing has also steered state banks to provide financing to priority industries like electric vehicles, robotics, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy.
But under pressure to lend, many loans went to questionable borrowers. Business debt has doubled since 2019, while revenues are only 30% higher. Creditors continue to roll over loans to keep struggling firms afloat, even as nearly a third of them are losing money.

China’s state-led growth model now looks like it’s running out of steam, and the rapidly expanding mountain of debt is a warning sign as local governments often seek to boost favored industries with low-cost loans.

According to the International Monetary Fund, China’s general government gross debt hit 107% of GDP this year, up from 41% in 2015 and on a path to reach 124% in 2030.

A broader measure of indebtedness across the public and private sectors reveals an even worse picture. China’s total debt-to-GDP ratio, excluding the financial sector, doubled since 2010 and has now topped 300%, Capital Economics estimated earlier this year.

But in the U.S., total public and private debt last year was about 265% of GDP, down sharply from pandemic-era highs.

Not only has China’s debt boom hit diminishing returns, but it’s also becoming a drag on the economy.

“The irony is that one driver of both government borrowing and the lax lending standards of [state-owned] banks is the desire to prop up economic growth and prevent job losses,” Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, wrote in May. “But the product of a credit boom that has been underway for 18 years is a banking system propping up unproductive firms, widespread losses across industry, and entrenched overcapacity.”

(Sorry, I dont know enough about banking to comment on this article. To read the free article Fortune requires you to log in. But if China's growth in a bloated economy is 4.5%, How much will the GDP growth be in a real economy? I cant say, but if its 3% (a guess) US's 1.8% is not the end of the world, especially since as China's growth will slow down. India's is about 6.5% but as usual it doesn't know what its doing in defense, with a true 1.5% GDP on defense when it can easily afford 4%. Recently, I read it dropped its new submarine buy of French boats from 3 to 2 (The German buy is separate) because of money issues. Huh?)

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[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

I dont know if my reply to Josh Shaprio posted, or my post today making fun of our great leader, Prez T.

(1) He ordered a ceasefire of some kind between Putin and Zelensky. Zelensky hadn't heard about it, but a major attack on Kyiv caused a blackout and Kyiv took out a major Russian data center.

(2) Mr. Trump says he will import 300000 tons of Russian diesel (I may not have this right - this may allow Russia to ship 300K tons elsewhere) with the thought this will reduce US diesel prices.

(3) This makes no sense: US EXPORTS about 200K tons of diesel daily, 60+% to Latin America. 10K tons a day for 30 days will have near zero effect, if any, on US price.

(4) Oil is fungible: naturally, Russia will sell its 300K tons where it gets the highest price. Now, there's a lot of confusion on Russian diesel. Though Russia has been under an oil export embargo since 2022, it's pretty much got its oil out one way or the other. Another reason why this will have a minimal effect on US diesel prices.

(5) The real reason diesel is short because Iran cant export, and the Gulf refineries have been attacked by Iran, which happened in 2026. Sure, Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries has reduced Russian supply for export, By how much I dont know - I'll try and find out, but I am guessing the shortage has fallen on Russian domestic supply, not on exports.

(6) That is why Trump has been threatening Ukraine with punishment if it doesnt stop attacking Russian Refineries. So we are in the odd situation we are threatening to punish our ally, Ukraine, and reward our enemy, Russia. This makes sense only in Trump World, which most of us don't inhabit. Latest is US is threatening Ukraine with a cut off of arms. This is an odd situation, because what Ukraine wants most, interceptor missiles, US can't spare. That too 10 nations (was 9) are part of the European Frejya consortium on the Ukraine 7x interceptor missile - some tests have taken place, but the Euros are working like mad on the project. So F7x will not be as good as Patriot, but it will be half or less the price.

(7) Now a team of six US senators (4 GOP, 2 Democratic) is taking steps to prevent Mr. Trump from rewarding Putin and punishing Zelensky. Lets see how that goes. Last figures I saw are 60% of Americans support aid to Ukraine, 20% don't, and 20% dont care either way support aid to Ukraine. It's Congress makes trade law, not Mr. Trump. That Congress has been checking Trump like a wet noodle checks Noah's flood is another matter, and its about to change.

More later.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

My dear Preziness (King of Kings, bringer of Light and Truth, Savior of your weary people etc etc).

Today you announced Russia will send us 300,000-ton of diesel, which I think is about 2-million bbl. This will bring down extraordinary high diesel prices at home. Horray; you, as usual, are thinking of YOUR people, blessed be your name, O Savior of the common man etc etc.

But: this is awkward. Did you know US typically exports 200,000 tons of diesel a day, 60%+ to Latin America? So why are you buying from the Evil Empire, which is under strict embargo for attacking our ally, Ukraine. and giving Moscow more money to kill Ukranians?

Is this some ultra-new, ultra-sophisticated theory of international relations, where we attack our friends and succor our enemies? Please explain to your dumb proletariat, which has an IQ of 70, so that we may be educated, poor stupid sods that we are.

Then you announced that Ukraine and Russia have accepted some kind of ceasefire, but the word did not get to the charming Senor Putin, because he has continued to attack Ukraine/ I'm not clear on this, but apparently Prez Z of Ukraine also did not get the word either of a ceasefire.

And as the rivers of justice roll into the once mighty Colorado, apparently no one told the inhabitants of the drought-scarred Colorado Basin of the munificence bestowed on them by your Majesty, the Prince Greater Than All the Princes that have walked the world, since 10-billion years ago. They do know that you have Sternly told Colorado et al that you will punish Ukraine severely if they don't stick to this ceasefire! (I'm sorry, I'm so excited I can barely contain myself over the little details that Your Royal Magnificence has ruled, like the Sun must rise in Nofortherlings (wherever they might be).

What is even more baffling to poor old zero IQ me, is I believe the price of diesel is way up because Iran hit the Gulf refineries in atonement for uttering the 61st second of the Night Prayer Attonement for the blessings you shower on us like a leaky sewer truck when we should have said the Prayer on the 60.000000000000000001 second after the Sun Rise on Planet XCVTZS of the Galaxy of Zoodonk (wherever that might be). Boy, that should learn them camel herders!

It is whispered in the urinals of Trebard (wherever that may be) that since the supply of diesel remains depressed, the price in Pumpkinville will remain elevated, benefiting only the oil dealers, who I know are no fans of yours. You'd sell diesel at one ounce of gold per gallon, given by you to the truckers.

Now I realise my daily rant makes no sense to the Great Lord Trump. What do I know, O King of Kings, I'm only from Iowa. I leave it to you to explain what I just said, and to explain your policies to this sick, ignorant world, Blessed Be Your Name for All Time (from before time, in fact). Your faithful follower, Ravi the Mad.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

Jacob Shapiro@BirdOfShado
Europe’s aid in helping Israel’s creation amounted to Britain giving the Zionists permission to build in Palestine and then imposing restrictions on how many Jews could immigrate there in response to Arab pressure.

Jacob Shapiro@BirdOfShado

This is false. America didn’t start helping Israel until after the Six Day War. America had nothing to do with Israel’s creation—which began in the 1880’s with land purchases because Jewish leaders saw trouble brewing for Jews even then. America imposed an arms embargo in 1948.

Reply from the Editor

Jacob raises fascinating points that deserve to be more fully covered. But not by me - Jacob is welcome to write an article which I will reproduce in toto.

First, Jacob's points are entirely correct. I may add that in 1956 when Britain-France- Israel attacked Egypt, the US threatened to punish them with financial sanctions, which forced the belligerents to withdraw. President Eisenhower could not support British-French colonial aspirations in keeping control of the Suez - after all, it had participated in World II partly to support decolonization. Ike recognized the US had Arab interests, and he could not agree to Israel seizing the Sinai desert.

Second, Jacob is taking a detailed view whereas I was making a general statement that Israel - aside from being a Western-sanctioned homeland for the Jews- is a vital outpost of Western civilization, first against communism, now against the spread of fundamental Islam and the rise of China. I accept that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians.

But first, US national security is more important than human rights; second, IMHO there is no 2-state solution; Israel cannot live with the Palestinians, and the US would do better to think of how to resettle them. Unfair it may be, but again, we can't put human rights before US national security. Nor can the Europeans, but love the hypocrisy of supporting human rights of the Palestinians while under mortal threat from fundamental Islam. The Euros are not my problem. If they want to see the decline of Western civilization, good luck to them.

While it's true the US did not start supplying arms to Israel till 1967; France was doing that job for the West. But the creation of Israel was wholly supported by the US since the Balfour Declaration, and IMHO, Israel would not have come into existence or survived except for US support. The US, BTW, stepped in with arms when De Gaulle embargoed arms to Israel.

If I might put in my trime (3 cents): the West has had a wonderful time hating on Israel's treatment of the Palestinians while simultaneously relying on Israel in this new civilizational war, fundamental Islam vs the West. It's time to end this hypocrisy and call a spade a spade, or at least a garden implement. The Arabs don't like radical Islam (backed by Iran) any more than the West does. If people would just leave people with different views alone, we could all live in peace and harmony, with butterflies and songbirds and gentle breezes. Ha ha ha. What an absurd idea.

Meanwhile, since the West loves Palestine so much, why not settle the Palestinians in North America and Europe? The average Palestinian is liberal, highly educated, and hardworking, and would be a great infusion of new blood for the West.

But there's that hypocrisy again: we say we are upset at the suffering the Palestinians undergo from Israel, but we don't want the Palestinians. Just like we say the Israelis deserve a place to live, just not the Jews in our neighborhood.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

@BirdOfShado Jacob, thanks. I'll have your two points and my comments up tomorrow.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

After reading Pankaj Mishra's highly literate and intellectual essay in Harper's Monthly, I am struck by the orgy of self-flagellation in America over our ties with Israel. Fueled by the Iran War, it adds to the guilt liberal Americans feel about Israel in Gaza.

To be an American liberal is, by definition, to be all-consuming guilty about something we Americans have done.

To make my position clear, let me freely acknowledge

(a) Israel was created by America as a home for the survivors of the brutal genocide the Jewish people endured at the hands of Germany during WW2.

(b) America made amends for our disinterest in European Jews during the Holocaust at the expense of the Palestinians because Palestinians were weak and we were strong.

(c) The Europeans also assuaged their guilt at being fundamentally anti-semitic.

(d) No one asked the Palestinians if they wanted to be disposed of for the benefit of the Jew hating white West.

(e) But for America, Israel would probably not have survived 20 years.

What this adds up to is that the Palestinians have suffered at the hands of the Jews ---> American liberals are shocked and dismayed ---> So America must withdraw its support of Israel.

This is a highly simplified version of the issue, but you will understand I can't write a 1000-page essay. So please excuse my brevity.

That we must abandon Israel because of our national crimes listed above is a false conclusion.

America supports Israel because of OUR self-interest. The Soviet Union is done with and we are best friends forever with the Arabs (aided by their bribes) Israel is an outpost of the West and America, and an advance flag bearer of our civilization. We are finished with one civilizational conflict - the Cold War. The Cold War followed right on the heels of a previous civilizational conflict - Hitler and Japan. And we are enmeshed in ANOTHER civilizational conflict, this time with the Chinese and radical Islam.

Sure, there is an irony here: we must support Israel, though Israel is not meeting our standards for human rights. First comes security, then comes human rights. Is that so hard to accept? How much freedom would we enjoy had Hitler and Japan won, or if the Cold War had gone against us, and how much freedom will we have with China and militant Islam prevailing?

That's all there is to it, and if some of my liberal American brethren can't take the hypocrisy, may I suggest they go first in THIS civilizational war and spare the blood of our hypocrites, me included.

To sum up quickly - most of my readers have already fallen asleep

(a) I think democracy with justice for all is the best of all systems.
(b) All Americans have the right to their opinion - as long as their opinion doesn't result in the fall of our civilization.
(c) With the barbarians at the gates, by all means go first to convince the barbarians that they're being bad girls and boys; if it works, I will bow to your wisdom. But if the barbarians don't listen to you, allow me to persuade the barbarians with my semi-auto rifle. If I fall, that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Panaj, thank you for your beautiful essay. I lived in Simla for many years - not far from your Mashobra. If people like you did not go by ideals, well, soon enough we'd all be barbarians.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

My Prez is upset - again - he hasn't been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize. For what? Getting into the interminable Iran War? Sir, you don't get to nominate yourself. No reason to be upset.
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My Prez has just sold Ukraine down the river by lifting restrictions on import of Russian diesel. A bit of background. 3.4 million bbl/day of oil products move through Hormuz aside from crude oil. The crude is getting through fine due to US Navy convoying of tankers. Product, including diesel, is not. Because several refineries in the Middle East have been attacked.

So diesel, used for transportation in the US, is almost twice as expensive as usual. Now, we are the world's largest exporter of crude. Why do we have to import it? Because our refining capability did not rise to meet demand because of green concerns. Being green is GOOD, but a bummer in the emergency we're in.

Ukraine has disabled almost half of Russia's diesel refinining plus they are under an oil export embargo.

Now just to remind our Prez we are at war with Russia because they invaded Ukraine. We are also, incidentally, at trade wars with the world, and we must suffer because in the end - so it is said - these trade wars will benefit us. We are at war with Iran for many righteous reasons, and because of that, gasoline has shot up. President T tells us to be calm and carry on, because we must endure this trouble because Iran poses a threat to world peace (I agree). So why are we making diesel deals with Russia?

Isn't this weakness in the face of Russian aggression?

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So the rumor in Washington DC , gossip central to the world, is that President and Mrs. Trump are estranged.
How is the President private bedroom arrangement OUR business? Have some decency, people. Fellow Fat Snorting Nose Porkers, stay out of other people's private stuff.

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So back to something pleasent. More thought on the mythical Aurora, alleged successor to the SR-71 Blackbird. Bill Sweetman was on the hound dog trail ever since the US said there is no such plane.

One of the pieces of evidence Bill adduces to say there has to be such a plane is National Security Defense Directive laid out by President Ronald Reagan laid down 35 some years ago. This required the US to fight and win a nuclear war over six months with enough stuff in reserve for coercion. This led to a massive US nuclear arms race. Problem: the nerve center controlling US nuclear arms arsenal was the MILSTAR satellite network. This would not survive a first strike, let alone provide the targeting and recon for six months. QED, there had to be a strike-recon aircraft as follow-up to the SR-71, i.e., the Aurora (which might or not be the name).

Neat reasoning. Albeit still indirect.

BTW, the US has announced it is working on a followup to SR-71. Which would really be a follow-up to SR-72 and be called SR-73 (presumably).

Interesting.

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

British Commandos Emerge From German Submarine During Major NATO Exercise https://t.co/DcMDtjiZl6 148 Battery, Royal Marines emerge from a German T-212A submarine in a High North extreme cold weather exercise off the coast of Scotland, 2000 personnel from about 10 countries. As part of renewed focus on North Atlantic/High North. This is the first such exercise in 30 year for the Royal Marines because otherwise the focus was on counterinsurgency. Very fine troops, except as is usual with UK, too few.

Different mission than for US Marines which are basically heavy amphibious assault designed to take heavy losses, now dispersed operations on the littoral. Not everyone agrees this is the way to go, but you know the US - always changing, chopping, reorganizing, trying new things, and them from combat learning going "whoopsies, THAT didn't work, let's reorganize again". Keeps them busy.

I gather the Royal Marines were seizing observation posts for naval gunfire support.

(I could not get URL to paste, this is 11 days exercise ending October 9. From TMZ October 5, 2026)

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Another of the 7-boat class of Trafalgar SSNs hies off into the sunset; they are being replaced by 7 Astute boats and a successor to the Astute is already in design. Last I heard the plan is for RN to have 12 SSNs/ But the way RN is going, they'll be lucky to end up with 6, maonly as escorts to the SSBNs.

US is also very short of SSNs because of the US shipbuilding motto of "Always Ready, Always F****d Up"
It has 51 SSNs, of which maybe 30+ are ready for service. US should be building 2 a year (3 according to us Very Old Salts). US is to open a new shipyard at Baltimore to build bits and pieces of SSNs. hopefull accelerating the building of 2/yr instead of 1.1/yr. Like so much of the US military these days, with your behind over a burning hot stove.

Incidentally, having run out of state names for its subs (US ship names are Never Ready, Never Any Sense), is back to using fish names and now cruiser names as the Los Angeles class phase out. The next Virgina subs are:

Barb (SSN 804)  Under construction
Tang (SSN 805)  Keel laid Aug. 17, 2023
Wahoo (SSN 806)  Under construction
Silversides (SSN 807)  Under construction
John H. Dalton (SSN 808) Under construction
Long Island (SSN 809)  Under construction
San Francisco (SSN 810)  Under construction
Miami (SSN 811)  Under construction
Baltimore (SSN 812) Under contract
Atlanta (SSN 813) Under construction
But Dalton is neither a fish or a cruiser name you say. He was a Secretary of the Navy in the 1990s. They'll be naming an aircraft carrier after the lowest sweeper in the Navy Department, soon

[Ravi @Editor_Orbat]

The sudden departure of the 12 B-1 from RAF Fairford, some days after a threat was first identified, is somewhat of a mystery. USAF is under no obligation to share with us the specific nature of threats and what the countermeasures are.

The guess is that there was a threat of a drone attack. But was there a threat AFTER the arrest of several British outside Fairford? If it was during the arrest, then why not evacuate the bombers immediately?

There is guesswork that the sudden pullout had to do with some political angle.

USAF is not in favor of building hardened shelters because it does not consider them cost-effective. I can see they might not be against 2000-lb bombs, but surely noone is expecting a terrorist drone attack with 2000-lb bombs. Netting should be effective against the small warheads the drones carry.

Certainly, we can expect that there was no time to shift the already strained anti-drone defenses, and UK has limited missile defenses of its own. But UK is a tiny country; are we arguing UK could not cordon off an airbase. Or maybe we're arguing its not worth the effort when you can shift the bombers out of country and refuel bombers targeting Iran at Fairford.

Who knows what the story really is.

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Said that Putin is counting on Europe getting fed up supporting Ukraine by spring 2027. Why is Putin thinking this? We all know that if he is content with a Ukraine victory, there may be reason to think Europe will get fed up, but he's said he wants to restore the SOviet Union, so its unlikely he'll stop there. And Europe does not have its men at risk, just money, of which Europe has plenty.

We don't have a definitive reason why the US appears to be out of the game, but it is. Does Putin have something on Trump? We know people say he is, which is pretty close to treason by US interests, but do we know this for a fact?

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https://t.co/MJRP1hbjFJ says" Pakistan Navy PNS/M Hangor Submarine Tests CM-708UNB Anti-Ship Missile" Hangor is one of 8 Chinese T-039 subs Pakistan is building/acquiring. The missile has a 290-km range, equal to the Club missile on Indian Kalveri class, Hangor class has Stirling AIP propulsion. Kalveri uses hybrid diesel-electric propulsion, changing to fuel cell. Kalveri is small at 1550 tons submerged vs. Hangor's 2800 tons; presumably, Hangor has a heavier weapon load and greater submerged range (3 weeks vs 2 for Kalveri).

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