Happy to share that my #JMP (joint w/ @splloyd_econ and @Edmanuel7), has just come out as an ESRB Working Paper.
Q: What are the causal effects of macroprudential policy across the GDP-growth distribution?
A thread 🧵
BU post develops alternative measure of corporate profits. Finds they have fallen since start of 2022, in line with previous energy shocks. But decline has not been uniform across firms: firms with more market power were more able to increase their margins
https://t.co/a87MEEFQTK
BU discussing that monitoring developments abroad is as important as monitoring developments at home when assessing the vulnerability of the economy to a severe downturn.
https://t.co/IGAwWkwm2T
SWP 940 by Simon Lloyd, Ed Manuel (both BoE) + Konstantin Panchev (Univ of Oxford) incorporates foreign financial vulnerabilities into a model of GDP-at-risk (GDP@R) …
https://t.co/WB90CWvP7u
Widely circulated jaw-dropping figures for unemployment surge this week may UNDERestimate the seriousness of the situation. Sophisticated modeling by @aaronsojourner@paulgp predicts 3.25 and 3.4 million.
https://t.co/pwpBoAFXLJ