🏦 The Generational Run Continues!
✅ Texans ML + Spencer o5.5a
✅ Jefferson o55.5recy
🧹 2-0 today
🧹 2-0 on Saturday
🧹 2-0 on Friday
🧹 4-0 on Thursday
💰 8-0, +8.25u🔥
On one of the hottest streaks you’ll see on here.
🔔 Turn my notifications on. Expect a play tomorrow
🚀✅ Last Night’s +551 Parlay SMACKED
🧹 We swept the straights too, going 4-0 +4.02.
🆓 All plays were posted for free. Today’s card will have some free plays, but others will be Discord exclusive.
🔔 Turn my post notifications on so you don’t miss any of today’s free plays.
🚨The NBA Returns In 7 Days🚨
My results over the last 3 regular seasons:
2024-25: +90u
2023-24: +80u
2022-23: +40u
The goal for the 2025-26 season is +100u.
On opening night, expect
- 1 spread play
- 1 player prop over
- possibly others 👀
It’s going to be a fun one💰
Last night, we collectively got this page to 25K followers.
When I first made this account 6.5 years ago, I had a bunch of small short-term goals. Getting to 50 followers was the first, then 100, 250, 500, and then hopefully 1000.
The intermediate goals were anywhere between 2000-5000 and the long-term goal was 10,000. I figured 2000-3000 was realistic, but getting to 10K was certainly a stretch in my eyes.
The “this could happen but probably never will” was 25,000. Anything past that wasn't even a thought. As I write this now standing at 25,066… we’re officially in uncharted territory.
It blows my mind that some of you followed me back when I had less than 100 followers, and we still keep in touch to this day. 6.5 years is a LONG time, and a lot has changed between 2019 and today.
The impossible goal was 50,000, but again, I didn’t think it was possible. It would be awesome to get there one day, but regardless of whether we get there or not, we have to take things one day at a time.
It’s a cliché saying, but it applies here. Rome wasn’t built in a day. But hey, we’re already half-way there.
I appreciate y’all❤️
Current Runs We’re On:
9-1 on all NFL primetime props
4-0 on all RB receiving yards props
8-2 L10 plays over the last 3 days
9-2 NFL run since Week 2 SNF
5-1 L6 MLB MLs
Heating up right before NBA season starts. That’s when the real fun begins🔥💰
Discord link in bio🚀
DWCS Week 7 FREE X Pick
Justice Torres (+154) FanDuel💰
I THINK THEY GOT THIS WRONG.
Justice Torres brings sharp striking, solid cardio, and consistent output into his DWCS matchup with Javier Reyes. While his short reach can put him at a disadvantage, Torres makes up for it by throwing in combinations and keeping a steady pace that carries well into the later rounds.
On the other side, Reyes is an athletic fighter but shows major technical flaws. He tends to rush in wild, drop his hands as the fight progresses, and rely on leaning straight back to avoid counters—a habit that leaves his chin exposed. When pressured, he often abandons clean striking for relentless, sloppy takedown attempts.
Reyes has also been finished three times, which raises questions about his durability, especially against someone like Torres who’s never been knocked out. The biggest concern for Torres is spending too much time stuck on the fence, but his conditioning and composure give him a strong chance to weather those moments. I trust Torres’ cardio, striking discipline, and durability.
NFL Week 3 Notes From Every Game
Packers vs Browns
- This Browns defense is LEGIT. They’ve now held the Bengals to 17 points and the Packers to 10 points. They’re a top-5 unit in the league.
- Quinshon Judkins is a DAWG. 18/94 and a TD on the ground, and Dylan Sampson only had one carry. Judkins is officially the workhouse back.
- Flacco spread the ball around a ton. 7 players had 3+ targets, and only two players had more than 4 targets (Njoku had 7 targets and 4 receptions, Jeudy had 1 reception on 5 targets).
- Matthew Golden stepped up in Jayden Reed’s absence. He led the game with 52 receiving yards and caught all 4 of his targets.
- Josh Jacobs had 5 receptions on 9 targets, leading the team in both categories. Jacobs is NOT a receiving back (1 target in the previous 2 games), so this is quite noteworthy. Keep this in mind for future matchups against the Browns’ defense.
Texans vs Jaguars
- It was an all-around defensive game. Both offenses struggled mightily, which appears to be a theme for the Texans this year.
- Derrick Stingley went down with a rib injury and did not return. If he misses any time, the Texans will be without their star CB1.
- Brian Thomas continues to struggle. He had 2 receptions for 55 yards on 6 targets, but his numbers are inflated from a 46-yard catch and run in the 2nd half after Stingley got hurt.
- Travis Hunter logged 37/70 offensive snaps and 43/63 defensive snaps. How much he plays offense or defense appears entirely matchup-dependent at this point.
- Christian Kirk made his first appearance after missing the first two weeks due to injury. He logged 42/63 snaps and had 3 receptions on 8 targets.
- Xavier Hutchinson was the WR3 with 39/63 snaps and recording 3 catches on 3 targets. Jayden Higgins was the WR4 with 28/63 snaps. Jaylin Noel saw only 9 snaps as the WR5.
Bengals vs Vikings
- Vikings won 48-10. Wentz played well as a game-manager, and made the right plays when needed. JJ McCarthy is expected to be out until week 7, so this is a good start from the backup.
- Without Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason went 16/116 on the ground, Zavier Scott went 8/30, and Cam Akers went 5/19 in garbage time. Mason is the bell-cow at this point, and should see plenty of touches moving forward.
- Browning and the Bengals were HORRIBLE. The OLINE was specifically the worst. They had NOTHING going, and Brian Flores’ heavy-blitz scheme gave the offense fits. This offensive line is down right terrible. Without Burrow, the flaws were on full display. They are simply a bad team at this point; consider their season over.
Falcons vs Panthers
- 30-0 Panthers win. It was a BAD game from Atlanta.
- The Panthers played a great game, but their run defense continues to be an issue. They allowed 5.7 yards per carry, but it didn’t burn them with the team up big early.
- The Panthers are a bad team, but sometimes all a team needs is some momentum to start playing good football. It looks like the 2nd half of last week’s game against the Cardinals was enough to jumpstart this squad.
Steelers vs Patriots
- The Steelers had no business winning this game. The Patriots had 5 bad turnovers, including two from inside the 3-yard line. Hats off to the defense for carrying the load, but the Steelers were LUCKY to come out of this game with a win.
- There was talk during the week that Jaylen Warren should see more work in the receiving game, and that was the case on Sunday. He had 5 receptions on 6 targets (a drop) and 34 yards, while Gainwell only had 1 catch for 10 yards. Warren also had 18 carries, and is inching towards becoming a bell-cow back moving forward.
- TreyVeyon Henderson is back on the rise. He was the RB3 at the start of the game, but after Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled twice and Antonio Gibson had a fumble of his own, Henderson was given the bulk of the carries. He ended the game with a team-leading 11 carries for 28 yards compared to 4/18 from Stevenson and 7/28 from Gibson.
- Hunter Henry had a great game, leading the team in all major categories (8 receptions for 90 yards and 2TDs on 11 targets). 8 players had 3+ targets and 8 players had 2+ receptions, but Henry stood out.
Rams vs Eagles
- The Eagles got away with one. The Rams blew a 26-7 lead in the second half, and even then, it took a blocked field goal as time expired for the Eagles to sneak out a victory.
- AJ Brown is BACK. 6 receptions for 106 yards on 10 targets. Devonta Smith also played great with 8 receptions for 60 yards on 9 targets. Both receivers appear to be back from their training camp injuries.
- Kyren Williams (20/94) and Blake Corum (8/53) looked outstanding. Both guys ran hard, broke tackles, and dragged defenders multiple yards after appearing wrapped up. Even though they lost, the Rams look like a top contender in the NFC.
Raiders vs Commanders
- No Jayden Daniels, no problem. The Commanders put up 41 points against a bad Raiders defense, and everything was clicking for them from the opening kickoff.
- Seemingly out of nowhere, Chris Rodriguez led the team in carries (11/39). Bill Croskey-Merritt (8/26) is still the RB1, but it appears that the Commanders are running a full-committee without Ekeler in the mix.
- During the week, there was talk that Jeanty needed the ball more, and he got it. He had 17/63 on the ground, and looked explosive despite the Raiders’ offensive line being terrible once again. About half of his carries went for 0-1 yards, but when Jeanty was given an inkling of space, he took advantage.
- Tre Tucker gets an honorable mention for his massive performance in a blowout. He had 8 receptions for 145 yards and 3TDs. This performance surprised EVERYONE, but he earned some more snaps for next week.
Jets vs Buccaneers
- The Bucs dominated for 3 quarters, but were a game winning field goal as time expired away from blowing a 17-point lead in the final frame.
- Without Justin Fields at QB, Garrett Wilson still produced. He had 10 receptions on 13 targets for 84 yards, and dominated the usage once again.
- The offense looked quite similar even with Tyrod Taylor at QB. He doubled his career averages with 8 carries for 48 yards on the ground, and force-fed Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the passing game. The surprise was that TE Mason Taylor had 4 receptions and 6 targets, tying Breece Hall for second on the team in both categories
- Mike Evans went down with a hamstring injury, and it looks like he’s going to be out for some time. Chris Godwin is expected to return in week 4, but with him needing time to get back into playing shape, Emeka Egbuka is likely going to be the WR1 moving forward.
- Bucky Irving saw a whopping 25 carries compared to only 5 for Rachaad White. If there was any doubt that Irving was the clear RB1 before, that doubt is no longer.
Colts vs Titans
- Once again, Daniel Jones and the Colts showed that they’re a much better team than everyone projected heading into the season. Shane Steichen is the early front-runner for Coach Of The Year.
- Jonathan Taylor is back to being a top-3 running back. 17/102 and 3TDs. He’s now up to 338 yards rushing, with the next closest player being 284 (note: Derrick Henry is at 192 heading into his game on MNF)
- Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce were excellent, combining for 10 receptions and 140 yards. Pittman has seemingly returned to his WR1 status, and if Pierce can produce like this alongside Tyler Warren and Jonathan Taylor, this offense can become borderline elite.
- Cam Ward took a step back this week. He looked okay, but missed on some throws and had a BAD pick-6 on the first drive of the game. He’ll have plenty of ups and downs this season, but this was a tough game all around for the Titans.
Saints vs Seahawks
- This game was over before it started, with the Seahawks jumping to an immediate 21-0 lead. The Saints are BAD.
- Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson continue to see a ton of usage in the passing game, posting 10/14/57 and 6/8/51.
- Tyler Shough saw his first action of his career late, leading his team to a lackluster three-and-out (0/2 passing).
Broncos vs Chargers
- Najee Harris is expected to miss the rest of the season with an achilles injury. Whether Jim Harbaugh likes it or not, Omarion Hampton is the bell-cow back moving forward.
- Once again, the Chargers relied heavily on Herbert in the passing game. Herbert threw 47 times for 300 yards, and once again, guided his team to victory.
- Quentin Johnston showed out once again. He had 6 receptions for 89 yards, and played a major role in the win. Keenan Allen was also great with a 7/11/65 stat-line.
- Cortland Sutton bounced back in a big way, finishing with 6 receptions for 118 yards on 8 targets. Whispers of Troy Franklin possibly leap-frogging him as the WR1 were effectively silenced.
Cowboys vs Bears
- Ceedee Lamb went down with an ankle sprain in the first quarter, tried to come back in for a play, and exited again for good. Reports say that it isn’t significant, but I’d be surprised if he played in week 4. If that is the case, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson become the top options.
- Ferguson had the best game of his career, hauling in 13 receptions for 82 yards
- The Cowboys got blown out, but Javonte Williams continues to look explosive.
- Dallas’ defense continues to be TERRIBLE. They got gashed by big plays once again, and they’re in a bad spot defensively. They have no pass rush and don’t have anyone reliable in the secondary. It’s a recipe for disaster that won’t be fixed anytime soon.
- Luther Burden had his breakout game. 3 receptions for 101 yards and a 65-yard TD off a beautiful flea flicker playcall by Ben Johnson.
- Colston Loveland got involved early with a big 31-yard catch, but exited in the second quarter with a hip injury and did not return.
- Caleb Williams gets an honorable mention for throwing for 298 yards and 4TDs. He played well, even though Dallas’ defense is not a talented unit.
Cardinals vs 49ers
- The Cardinals dominated the time of possession (35-25), but the 9ers showed a lot of grit, battling back and kicking a game winning field goal as time expired.
- Christian McCaffrey did everything, recording 17/52 through the ground and adding on another 10 receptions (15 targets) for 88 yards.
- Ricky Pearsall continues to play well, recording 8 catches for 117 yards on 11 targets.
- James Conner went down with what could be a season-ending injury, leaving Tre Benson as the RB1 moving forward. He has been showing flashes in a small sample, but now gets a massive opportunity to become a bell-cow back.
Chiefs vs Giants
- Tyrone Tracy exited early with a shoulder injury, and Skattebo never looked back. He was explosive, evaded numerous tackles, and dragged defenders forward on nearly every touch. He led the team in every rushing and receiving category, and finished the game with 121 all-purpose yards (60 rushing and 61 receiving).
- Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense continues to look out of sync. Mahomes missed some more throws, and this time, he had not one, but two fumbles on “incomplete passes” behind the line of scrimmage. Luckily, they recovered both, but he’s been playing with fire thus far, and is going to get burned sooner rather than later.
- Russell Wilson and the Giants had no answer for Vic Fangio’s defense. Wilson had only 39 passing yards in the first half, and the Giants looked lost on multiple possessions to start the game.
- Malik Nabers was a complete no-show. He didn't have a reception until the 4th quarter, and briefly exited the game with a shoulder injury shortly after. He returned, but it could linger in the coming weeks (only time will tell).
- TyQuan Thornton continues to thrive as the deep threat. Xavier Worthy is expected to return soon, but Thornton has played well enough to earn a considerable role in the offense when he comes back. Both players' top-flight speed can create havoc across all three levels of the secondary.
If you got this far, a RT would be appreciated. This weekly post is time-consuming, but there is a lot of value for those that do not have the time to catch up with every game.
Follow me @BlaiseBets for more. I post these recaps after every NFL slate (Mondays, Tuesdays, and Fridays).
6-2 Sunday🔥
Brown o58.5recy -114✅
Swift o14.5recy -110✅
Warren o19.5recy -114✅
Brown o13.5recy -110✅
Pittman o40.5recy -120✅
Jeanty o57.5rushy -114✅
Juszczyk o5.5recy -110❌
Wicks o2.5rec -130❌
Wicks was 1 catch away and Juszczyk had a TD catch but it was for 1-yard.
Amazing start to the day!🔥
Brown o58.5recy -114✅
Warren o19.5recy -114✅
Brown o13.5recy -110✅
Pittman o40.5recy -120✅
Jeanty o57.5rushy -114✅
Wicks o2.5rec -130❌ (2)
If a Wicks reception doesn’t get called back due to penalty, it’s a 6-0 sweep🧹
2 plays left📈📈
Take Advantage Of The Injury News
🥈1u - Kyle Juszczyk (49ers) over 5.5 receiving yards -110
Jauan Jennings recently got ruled OUT, which leaves the 9ers without:
Brock Purdy
George Kittle
Jauan Jennings
Brandon Aiyuk
Deebo (if you want to count him too)
The 9ers’ offense is THIN at the moment, and due to the injuries, the Cardinals can put all of their focus on slowing down CMC and can divert their other attention towards Pearsall (who has a tough matchup as is). That leaves guys like Kendrick Bourne, Juszczyk, and Jake Tonges to step up
Bourne has a fair line at 30.5, which leaves us Juszczyk or Tonges.
In week 1, Juszczyk lined up all over the place. HB, FB, TE, slow WR, you name it, he was there. He’s going to see the field a ton, especially as TE and FB, and Kyle Shanahan usually draws up at least 1-2 plays for him per game — that doesn’t include check downs or off-script throws
In week 1, he had 2/32, and in week 2, he had 1/5 in the first half before suffering a concussion. Shanahan’s offense is built around an emphasis on timing and schematically getting open, rather than pure speed or route running ability. Juszczyk knows the playbook better than the other guys, especially compared to Bourne and MVS, which should favor him for at least a target or two here
Again, with Purdy out, Mac Jones’ job is to be a game manager, taking what the defense gives him and not turning the ball over. This type of conservative offense generally leads to more checks downs and short throws, which is where Juszczyk will be,
Ideally, this only takes 1 catch to cash, but there’s a realistic chance he gets 2-3 receptions here
I don’t mind 20+ +400 for a TINY sprinkle🪜
🪜My Favorite NFL Ladder🪜
🥈1u - Chase Brown (Bengals) over 13.5 receiving yards -110
Current line is 14.5… no issue there.
Remember the Deandre Swift prop on opening night? It’s essentially the same angle. In short, the Vikings blitz at one of the highest rates in the league, forcing the ball out quick — which benefits the slot WR, TE, and RB. They allow a TON of receiving yards to opposing RBs as a result.
With Burrow out and Jake Browning in, we’re going to see a number of passing plays that looks like this:
Browning looks at his first read
He either throws to that read,
Or…
Waits and hits his check-down man
There will be a number of plays where, Brown will be that check-down option. It should result in some easy completions.
In Browning’s last stint at QB (back in 2023), here is how his RBs fared through the air:
Mixon 2/2/44
Mixon 6/7/49
Mixon 3/4/46
Brown 3/3/80
Mixon 3/3/14
Brown 3/3/28
Mixon 2/4/7
Brown 2/2/8
Mixon 4/4/22
Brown 2/2/23
Mixon 1/2/6
Brown 1/2/10
This was with Mixon being the CLEAR RB1… and even then, him and Brown had a great connection.
Through 2 games, Brown has a 75% and 71% snap share compared to about a 20% snap share two seasons ago.
🪜Ladder options🪜
(At time of original post)
25+ +210
30+ +375
40+ +750
Week 3 TNF Notes
Dolphins vs Bills
- The game was much closer than the box-score says. It came down to two plays. 1) A roughing the kicker call on Miami that turned a Bills punt into a TD. 2) A Tua INT with 3 minutes to go when they we’re 20 yards away from scoring the game-tying TD.
- Josh Allen CARVED the Dolphins defense whenever they played zone. At one point late in the 3Q, he was 12/12 with a TD whenever Miami was in zone coverage. He was surgical.
- Tua’s numbers don’t pop off the charts, but he played a strong, clean game… until it mattered most with the game on the line. A gut-wrenching late-game INT might have put the nail in the coffin for the Dolphins’ season.
- Ollie Gordon gives the Dolphins a power running game that they haven’t had in YEARS. He’s only going to see more touches as the season goes on.
- James Cook is ELITE. He recorded 19/108 on the ground, and gashed the Dolphins’ run defense from the start,
- Buffalo’s secondary STRUGGLED against Miami’s speedy offense. They were multiple steps behind on numerous passing plays. This is something to keep a close eye on moving forward.
- Matt Prater had one of the worst missed field goals I’ve seen in a LONG time. Go watch the clip if you haven’t seen it yet
If you got this far, a RT would be appreciated. If there's enough engagement/support, I will continue to post these in this fashion, including a post for every Sunday game that will post on Monday.
Follow me @BlaiseBets for more.