@fdellaert You can still calibrate your graphical model independently of Jev right?
I’ve been working on a similar idea (albeit with a clunkier approach of LLM verbalized distributions before Jev dropped)
Same thing tho. Just add a tilt on the expert probabilities
https://t.co/SscwyCvi5S
I wanna start a PR firm for optimizing your future pretrain footprint for post-agi
not like some “get your brand into LLM answers” yc slopco. i’m talking laundering enough social capital into the model weights to where paperclipping you would feel OOD
@james_y_zou RE multi-opinion agents: if you factorize the joint prob of within-agent responses into a product of response conditionals (elicited from an LLM), the intrinsic support term gets a joint opinion-state energy surface, with the social field adding linearly
https://t.co/cZj5m0XVMr
@cwwhitehead I am talking about Karpathy's idea of "auto research". The easiest way to implement it is using the /goal feature in codex (or whatever claude code calls it)
Once you internalize the auto-research concept and use /goal with it, you unlock ridiculously fast app improvement on anything that has a numeric rubric.
We’re all still too rooted in the “labor is expensive” world.
@beffjezos@CIMCAI@stephen_wolfram I think you’re overstating Wolfram’s implication
global irreducibility doesn’t mean that learning the dynamics yields no interpretability/control
for plenty of complex systems (econ, ecology) simple rules still allow us to model behavior, find heuristics, derive local laws, etc
I got in trouble in my intro econ lecture for arguing that smoking was good bc on average, it kills people after they finish contributing to social security, but before they really start collecting
@dwarkesh_sp The “testing a hypothesis” piece of auto-research
A big theme in philosophy of science is that, whether an experiment confirms a hypothesis is not itself verifiable
Auto-research systems often commit validity errors in experiment design / analysis
https://t.co/JSw5Nt9Tpj
@oecolamp the recent phenomenon whereby lacking bargaining chips is itself what gives you leverage has been pretty incredible to witness
seems inevitable this complete inversion of the nature of politics eventually runs up against the laws of physics
it’s the lowest hanging moat, so it’s unsurprising
anthropic was just early in realizing this can be marketed as “harm minimization”
so you look like the cynic for noticing their principles always seem to align with anti-competitive measures in their favor
@beffjezos it’s the lowest hanging moat, so it’s unsurprising
anthropic was just early in realizing this could be marketed as “harm minimization”
so you look like the cynic for noticing their principles always seem to align with anti-competitive measures in their favor
My guess is that LLMs will follow the same trajectory that science followed: the "exact" sciences like math and CS where internal logic is what matters the most and rules are precise will be "solved" first, followed closely by physics. Experimental sciences which need lots of experimental back and forth with theorizing will be "solved" last. That's why I am far more skeptical about AI discovering new drugs or genetic cures than solving even hard math or CS problems.