EL_StatsLab

Visualizing EuroLeague Basketball
Every stat since 2000 · Advanced metrics & historical trends 📊
🌐

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Introducing the ELSTATSLAB Match Center 🧵

A tool built around two questions every basketball analyst asks before and after a game:

Who has the edge, and in which area? How did the match actually unfold?

Here is what it does. 👇

https://t.co/KDTbkBsycL

#EuroLeague

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Just got back from a week in Madeira. Stunning island, proper break.

🔬 Now back to work. This summer is about long-term projects. Several topics on the list, one of them around player age in EuroLeague.

👀 More details soon.

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

@HellasHoopLab Thank you very much for your feedback. Sorry for the late reply. I didn’t get a notification. I’m glad you like it, anyway.

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

🏆 Congratulations to Olympiacos on the 2025-26 EuroLeague title.
One year ago, EL_Statslab didn't exist.

Here's what got built in year 1:
→ A full Match Center at https://t.co/UHm6LylceA
→ GameFlow visualizations with scoring run detection
→ Match Edge: a Monte Carlo win probability model (10,000 simulations per game)
→ Impact Pulse: a composite On/Off metric tracking the most impactful player per game
→ Shot charts, radar comparisons, efficiency landscapes
→ Best Lineup analysis by NetRtg
→ A box score scan every single game night
→ 25+ seasons of EuroLeague data, all in one place
Built solo.
Thank you to everyone who read, shared, engaged, or simply followed along this season. Every interaction made this worth building.
Year 2 starts now. 👁️

#EuroLeague #Analytics

[EuroLeague @EuroLeague]

OLYMPIACOS ARE THE 2026 EUROLEAGUE CHAMPIONS 🏆 🔴⚪️

Congratulations to the reds, a first title since 2013 to cap off an amazing season!

#F4GLORY

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

@gavrojim007 An incredible Final Four performance from him, the decisive X factor.

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Olympiacos Impact Pulse | EuroLeague Final vs Real Madrid

Bench impact was a decisive factor in the championship game.

6 of 7 bench players who logged 12+ possessions posted a positive score.

Fournier: Final Four MVP. Impact Pulse: +1.69.

#EuroLeague #OlympiacosBC #F4GLORY

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

@HellasHoopLab Many thanks

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

🏆 EuroLeague Final Four | THE FINAL

🇬🇷 Olympiacos vs 🇪🇸 Real Madrid

Match Edge gives Real Madrid a slight edge at 53.0% on neutral ground, Olympiacos at 47.0%.

But one important disclaimer before you take that number at face value 👇

#EuroLeague #F4GLORY

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

@kingOdysseas Have you taken the time to read the three tweets?

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Generally speaking, the home advantage is factored in based on the home team’s performance; for example, Real Madrid had a better home performance index than any other team this year, given their home record. Currently, it doesn’t factor in a home advantage for Final Four matches as they’re played on neutral ground (though it’s more of a home game for Olympiacos than for Madrid), but the model is on a large scale. It’s impossible for me to do a case-by-case analysis at the moment. There’s already quite a lot of concrete data to feed into it.

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

@george_ist Hello, the season is shown on the left, and you’ll see that Real are indeed leading in rebounds. Can you tell me where I’ve suggested otherwise?

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Most points scored in a single EuroLeague Final (modern era).

📊 Larkin: 29 pts (2018-19) ❌
📊 Vezenkov: 29 pts (2022-23) ❌
📊 Melli: 28 pts (2017-18) ❌
📊 Ginobili: 27 pts (2001-02) ❌
📊 Rice: 26 pts (2013-14) ✅

The top 4 all lost.

#EuroLeague #F4GLORY

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

What the Match Edge actually models:

• Each team's season-long efficiency ratings
• Head-to-head results over the last 4 seasons, Final Four included
• Offensive and defensive style matchup
• Home court removed (neutral site)
• Monte Carlo simulation across thousands of possible scoring distributions, with extra weight on high-stakes games and Finals meetings specifically

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

⚠️ The Match Edge does NOT factor in current injury reports.

Roster availability, key absences, and fatigue from the semifinal are variables the model cannot capture. Those matter enormously in a one-game final.

Treat the output as a baseline, not a verdict.

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Full breakdown — all 8 games:

2012-13
↳ Olympiacos 84-71 EA7 Milan
↳ Olympiacos 82-81 EA7 Milan

2013-14
↳ Olympiacos 89-70 Laboral Kutxa
↳ Olympiacos 89-59 Laboral Kutxa

2022-23
↳ Olympiacos 117-71 Virtus Bologna
↳ Olympiacos 85-83 Virtus Bologna

2025-26
↳ Real Madrid 89-77 Olympiacos
↳ Olympiacos 102-88 Real Madrid

#EuroLeague

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Tomorrow's EuroLeague Final is also a coaching duel.

🇬🇷 Bartzokas vs 🇪🇸 Scariolo, all-time head-to-head in EuroLeague:

8 games | Bartzokas 7 - 1 Scariolo (87.5%)

This season: 1-1
↳ Real Madrid 89-77 (Round 2)
↳ Olympiacos 102-88 (Round 36)

#OlympiacosBC #RealMadrid

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

135.5 ORTG in a Final Four semi. Already shocking against a team with a 113.2 season DRTG.

But look at that OREB%: 46.3 for Madrid, 23.7 for Valencia. Without Len. Without Tavares.

You do not dominate the glass like that on scheme alone. That is a different level of want.

[Figurei8ht @Figurei8ht]

✅ One month ago: this was the most likely Final (17%)
🇬🇷 Olympiacos vs 🇪🇸 Real Madrid

🏆 Today: it’s the actual EuroLeague Final

📊 Model validated.

👉 Built on: 10k sims, Net Rating (H/A), SoS & Elo in cooperation with @g_giase

Who do you have winning it?

#EuroLeague #BasketballAnalytics #FinalFour #F4GLORY #SportsAnalytics #Figurei8ht #olympiacosbc #realmadrid

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

@Figurei8ht @g_giase Apparently having Fenerbahçe and Panathinaikos under 1% was the scandal of the century. One did not make the Final Four, the other lost by 10+ in the semis.

Your model saw it right. Congrats. 👏

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Real Madrid:
❌ 2012-13 vs Olympiacos 88-100
❌ 2013-14 vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 86-98
❌ 2021-22 vs Anadolu Efes 57-58
❌ 2023-24 vs Panathinaikos 80-95

Olympiacos:
❌ 2009-10 vs FC Barcelona 68-86
❌ 2014-15 vs Real Madrid 59-78
❌ 2016-17 vs Fenerbahce 64-80
❌ 2022-23 vs Real Madrid 78-79

[EL_StatsLab @El_Statslab]

Real Madrid and Olympiacos share the record for most EuroLeague finals lost: 4 each.

On Sunday, one of them gets a chance to break the tie. The other adds to it.

#EuroLeague #F4GLORY