ElectIndex

Your one-stop shop for everything elections!

[ElectIndex @ElectIndex]

Big update for @ElectIndex

[David @davidslosttt]

Hello everyone,

I’m moving the @ElectIndex Election Simulator behind a paywall as I continue expanding it into a much more advanced election modeling and simulation platform.

The simulator is getting major new features, including precinct-level simulations, custom race creation, more control over how elections are modeled, and much more. But this is only the beginning.

The current simulator is honestly about 1% of what I ultimately want it to become. I have plans to expand it far beyond its current capabilities, including international elections, more detailed geographic simulations, significantly more customization, advanced modeling features, and many other tools that I want to build over time.

ElectIndex is run entirely by one person, and building all of this takes a huge amount of time, development, and resources. If I’m going to continue putting that much work into the simulator and turn it into the platform I envision, the bottom line is that I need to be paid for that work. Moving the full simulator behind the paywall is what makes it possible for me to dedicate more time and resources toward developing it.

That said, I don’t want to completely lock everyone out. Until the conclusion of the midterms, the 2026 Election Simulator will remain completely free as a demo, so anyone can still try it out and get a sense of what the simulator can do. After the midterms, another date will be available as a demo.

I’m also moving state legislative chamber-level forecasts behind the paywall as part of this expansion. This will allow me to dedicate more resources toward producing and maintaining detailed state legislative forecasts.

If you want access to the full simulator, state legislative forecasts, and other ElectIndex Supporter features such as Forecast+, you can become an ElectIndex Supporter here:

https://t.co/WlmyalncVc

You can access the Election Simulator here:

https://t.co/FVswLzEq5K

Thank you to everyone who supports ElectIndex and helps make it possible for me to continue expanding my business and living out my dreams ❤️

[David @davidslosttt]

Hello everyone,

I’m moving the @ElectIndex Election Simulator behind a paywall as I continue expanding it into a much more advanced election modeling and simulation platform.

The simulator is getting major new features, including precinct-level simulations, custom race creation, more control over how elections are modeled, and much more. But this is only the beginning.

The current simulator is honestly about 1% of what I ultimately want it to become. I have plans to expand it far beyond its current capabilities, including international elections, more detailed geographic simulations, significantly more customization, advanced modeling features, and many other tools that I want to build over time.

ElectIndex is run entirely by one person, and building all of this takes a huge amount of time, development, and resources. If I’m going to continue putting that much work into the simulator and turn it into the platform I envision, the bottom line is that I need to be paid for that work. Moving the full simulator behind the paywall is what makes it possible for me to dedicate more time and resources toward developing it.

That said, I don’t want to completely lock everyone out. Until the conclusion of the midterms, the 2026 Election Simulator will remain completely free as a demo, so anyone can still try it out and get a sense of what the simulator can do. After the midterms, another date will be available as a demo.

I’m also moving state legislative chamber-level forecasts behind the paywall as part of this expansion. This will allow me to dedicate more resources toward producing and maintaining detailed state legislative forecasts.

If you want access to the full simulator, state legislative forecasts, and other ElectIndex Supporter features such as Forecast+, you can become an ElectIndex Supporter here:

https://t.co/WlmyalncVc

You can access the Election Simulator here:

https://t.co/FVswLzEq5K

Thank you to everyone who supports ElectIndex and helps make it possible for me to continue expanding my business and living out my dreams ❤️

[David @davidslosttt]

🚨 BIG NEWS as FOX NEWS POLLING shows the Democrats ready to FLIP the SENATE

Follow and retweet so everyone can hear about this!!!

[David @davidslosttt]

🚨 UPDATED WI-GOV FORECAST HAS THE RACE AT D+5

After winning the primary, David Crowley now has a 70% chance to defeat election denier Tom Tiffany in the general election. Follow and retweet so everyone knows about this!!!

[ElectIndex @ElectIndex]

BIG NEWS:

[David @davidslosttt]

One of the biggest limitations of my current forecasting model for @ElectIndex is that data can’t quantify everything.

Polling and fundamentals can tell us a lot about where a race stands, but there are also movements, candidate dynamics, local developments, and political events that only humans can see. Put simply, a purely data-driven model misses those shifts!

That’s why I’m launching Forecast+.

Forecast+ combines the data-driven ElectIndex model with expert ratings and human analysis, allowing us to account for important developments that traditional quantitative models may not be able to capture. The goal is to create a more complete forecast that uses both the numbers and the human judgment needed to interpret what those numbers can’t see.

Forecast+ will be available exclusively to ElectIndex Supporters behind a paywall.

I’m also moving the national precinct maps behind the paywall, allowing Supporters to access the full forecasting experience and additional analysis.

Join ElectIndex Supporters: https://t.co/WlmyalncVc
View the forecasts: https://t.co/0iI3fCCMEq

[David @davidslosttt]

One of the biggest limitations of my current forecasting model for @ElectIndex is that data can’t quantify everything.

Polling and fundamentals can tell us a lot about where a race stands, but there are also movements, candidate dynamics, local developments, and political events that only humans can see. Put simply, a purely data-driven model misses those shifts!

That’s why I’m launching Forecast+.

Forecast+ combines the data-driven ElectIndex model with expert ratings and human analysis, allowing us to account for important developments that traditional quantitative models may not be able to capture. The goal is to create a more complete forecast that uses both the numbers and the human judgment needed to interpret what those numbers can’t see.

Forecast+ will be available exclusively to ElectIndex Supporters behind a paywall.

I’m also moving the national precinct maps behind the paywall, allowing Supporters to access the full forecasting experience and additional analysis.

Join ElectIndex Supporters: https://t.co/WlmyalncVc
View the forecasts: https://t.co/0iI3fCCMEq

[David @davidslosttt]

New Forecast+ is coming soon!!! @ElectIndex

It'll only be available to PAID ELECTINDEX SUPPORTERS only. Join at the price of $5 a month: https://t.co/yCRmijYvTw

[David @davidslosttt]

🚨 BREAKING NEWS as Washington primary results, an EXTREMELY ACCURATE predictor of future results, point to a D+10 BLUE WAVE YEAR

Modeled out, the Democrats would win 237 House seats and 53 Senate seats. Follow and retweet to spread the news!!!

[David @davidslosttt]

If the election was held TODAY then the Democrats would be CLEAR FAVORITES to win the House. Follow and retweet this to spread the news!!!

[David @davidslosttt]

You can become a supporter of @ElectIndex for the price of $5 a month!!! https://t.co/yCRmijYvTw

[David @davidslosttt]

Trump's approval in the northeastern corridor is generationally ass

[David @davidslosttt]

Polling data is sparse, but here are some early potential general election matchups:

Rubio vs. Harris: D+5.0
Vance vs. Harris: D+4.6
Rubio vs. Ocasio-Cortez: R+0.5
Rubio vs. Newsom: R+2.7
Vance vs. Newsom: R+4.1
Vance vs. Ocasio-Cortez: R+5.6

[David @davidslosttt]

2028 POLLING TRACKER LAUNCH

The first polls of the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries for 2028 show Kamala Harris and JD Vance holding (very early) leads over both of their opponents

[David @davidslosttt]

In 2022, my forecast correctly predicted 100% of Senate races and in 2024 it only had one miss

Right now, it's predicting that James Talarico is the favorite to flip Texas from RED to BLUE

[David @davidslosttt]

A win by Talarico, combined with Hinojosa keeping it close, might cause the TX GOP's gerrymander in South TX to crumble

The Democrats put up good nominees like Bobby Pulido and Johnny Garcia who have appeal among Trump voters and if state Dems win those seats, they're going Dem

[David @davidslosttt]

RATING CHANGE ON @ElectIndex

OH-7: Lean R->Tossup

If the election was held today, Democrat Brian Poindexter would be a 2 point favorite to flip the seat BLUE

[David @davidslosttt]

2026 US House forecast on the precinct level 🤩

[ElectIndex @ElectIndex]

This is my favorite project that I’ve ever created for my website, check it out !!!

[David @davidslosttt]

I'm pleased to announce the BETA launch of the BEST EVER US ELECTION SIM

- Shift the last 100 years from 1928 onwards
- Change the ElectIndex 2026 forecast to your heart's content
- Shuffler is fully merged as the sandbox
- Full election night experience with beautiful graphics

[David @davidslosttt]

I'm pleased to announce the BETA launch of the BEST EVER US ELECTION SIM

- Shift the last 100 years from 1928 onwards
- Change the ElectIndex 2026 forecast to your heart's content
- Shuffler is fully merged as the sandbox
- Full election night experience with beautiful graphics

[David @davidslosttt]

Hi guys, I've been very busy recently so I haven't been able to put out articles on my newsletter but if you would like to join it, you can join it for free: https://t.co/yCRmijYvTw

I would appreciate it from the bottom of my heart!!!