Election Graphs

Moved to Mastodon. Find us at @[email protected].

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

This account and our sister account @ElecCollPolls are shutting down here, merging, and opening up over on Mastodon for the 2024 Presidential election season. Find us over there at @[email protected]. Thanks!

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024
https://t.co/frqBQLyWuE
#Election2024

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

Knock Knock... Is this thing on?
https://t.co/zAUSo3uF8n
#Election2020

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

I just added a final update to our Election Results tracking post to reflect that there were no faithless electors and no changes at the session that just ended. Thanks again everyone for following us in 2020. See you again for 2024!

https://t.co/v5Rj8mH7AA

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

@DaveMc99TA Thanks! Appreciate that!

As for the EG vs RCP delta, it just looks like slight differences in which polls we included, and how far back in time we went in the final averages.

With so few polls in an average, and no weighting, each individual poll makes a big difference.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

With Georgia called for Biden a little bit ago, we now have calls for everything. So we are officially at Biden 306, Trump 232. So a margin of Biden by 74.

With that, we wrapped up our results post with an initial look at how we did. Which was not bad.

https://t.co/v5Rj8mH7AA

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

We have a call from @DecisionDeskHQ on NC, so we updated our post tracking our results. New range of possible outcomes based on uncalled “Weak” states is Biden by 42 to Biden by 74. If things go as per the current counts, we’ll have Biden by 74.

https://t.co/v5Rj8mYIZa

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

Fox called NV as well, so assuming all the calls hold (including the AZ call) the range of possible outcomes based on how the uncalled states go is from Biden by 42 to Biden by 104.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

Looks like all the major news outlets simultaneously called Pennsylvania, and the whole election, when Biden's lead went over 0.5% a few moments ago. But we were past that point yesterday. We'd already moved PA to the Biden column.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

If all the remaining states just go to the candidate who currently leads the vote count, which looks very reasonable at this point, you get Biden 306 to Trump 232, or Biden by 74 EV.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

And even if AZ is uncalled, the range would be Biden by 8 to Biden by 104. It is over either way.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

And even if AZ is uncalled, the range would be Biden by 8 to Biden by 104. It is over either way.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

With @DecisionDeskHQ calling PA for Biden, unless the folks who called AZ reverse their calls, we now have the range of possible outcomes ranging from Biden by 30 to Biden by 104.

Biden wins the Presidency.

The only remaining question is by how much.

https://t.co/v5Rj8mH7AA

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

With @DecisionDeskHQ calling PA for Biden, unless the folks who called AZ reverse their calls, we now have the range of possible outcomes ranging from Biden by 30 to Biden by 104.

Biden wins the Presidency.

The only remaining question is by how much.

https://t.co/v5Rj8mH7AA

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

@RCWillufo @ElecCollPolls For “official” numbers you would need to go to the individual state government websites for each state. But all the major news sites have pages that are tracking all the totals as numbers get posted.

@DecisionDeskHQ also has a great tracker:

https://t.co/b9hJcPtYaJ

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

New nowcast for Sunday including the latest polls logged by @ElecCollPolls:

Ind States Median: Biden+112 (-44)
Cats Expected: Biden+102 (-62)
Tipping Pt: Biden+3.5% (-1.0%)
Biden Win Odds: 81.2% to 98.6%
(Mid Pt 89.9%)

https://t.co/CpKrvMZ3vm

#Election2020

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

Of course moments after I tweet that, ME-CD2 gets called for Trump by AP. That was also “Weak Biden” with a Biden lead of 2.7%. Odds wise we said Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning ME-CD2.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

So far, the only state that flipped sides relative to our final categorizations is Florida, which was “Weak Biden”. Biden was at an 0.7% lead. We translated that to a 53.2% chance of a Biden win, 46.8% for a Trump win. Close to a coin-toss. So a flip was not surprising at all.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

So far, the only state that flipped sides relative to our final categorizations is Florida, which was “Weak Biden”. Biden was at an 0.7% lead. We translated that to a 53.2% chance of a Biden win, 46.8% for a Trump win. Close to a coin-toss. So a flip was not surprising at all.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

I’ve been updating the post below as states have been called through the night based on how the remaining “weak” states might swing back and forth.

Current range of possibilities goes from Trump by 42 EV to Biden by 118 EV.

Lots of possibilities still out there.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

I’ve been updating the post below as states have been called through the night based on how the remaining “weak” states might swing back and forth.

Current range of possibilities goes from Trump by 42 EV to Biden by 118 EV.

Lots of possibilities still out there.

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

Live Election Graphs Results Updates
https://t.co/v5Rj8mYIZa
#Election2020

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

Live Election Graphs Results Updates
https://t.co/v5Rj8mYIZa
#Election2020

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

@JerryGregoire Thus the question mark in the title. :-)

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

Election Day: Final Tightening?
https://t.co/pvZWCqyauc
#Election2020

[Election Graphs @ElectionGraphs]

@JerryGregoire That was a major theme of the blog post if you read it. How that is quite likely what was happening.