Election Preview

Election Forecasts and polling aggregates for federal, state, and local elections.

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Virginia Governor Model Forecast‼️

Chance of Winning:
Spanberger(D)- 96.8%
Sears(R)- 3.2%

Median Model Output
Spanberger- 53.2%(D+9%)
Sears- 44.2%

90% range- D+1% to D+16.8%
10k simulations using Partisan lean, polling, cash on hand, money raised, and # of instate donors.

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We can now project that the Virginia Redistricting Referendum will pass

Call made at 8:36 PM

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We can now project that Jay Jones will be the next Attorney General of Virginia. R to D flip

Call made at 8:21PM

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We can now project that Ghazala Hashmi will be the next Lieutenant Governor of Virginia. R to D flip

Call made at 7:51PM

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We can now project that Abigail Spanberger will be the next governor of Virginia. R to D flip

Call made at 7:42PM

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Forecasted Margins in Competitive Races

Arizona- D+2.1%
Florida- R+6.6%
Michigan- D+4.0%
Montana- R+8.0%
Nebraska- R+9.7%
Nevada- D+5.5%
Ohio- R+0.1%
Pennsylvania- D+4.5%
Texas- R+8.9%

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Final Senate Forecasting Model Update‼️
(As of November 4th)

Republicans🟥- 90.0% (51.7 avg)
Democrats🟦- 10.0% (48.3 avg)

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Democrat's Odds in Competitive Races

Arizona- 58%
Florida- 13%
Michigan- 70%
Montana- 7%
Nebraska- 3%
Nevada- 81%
Ohio- 50%
Pennsylvania- 74%
Texas- 5%

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Forecasted Margins In Other Key States:

Florida- R+4.2%
Iowa- R+7.1%
Maine- D+8.7%
Minnesota- D+5.1%
Nebraska 2- D+6.7%
New Hampshire- D+8.4%
New Mexico- D+8.4%
Ohio- R+8.1%
Texas- R+7.4%
Virginia- D+7.6%

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Final Presidential Forecasting Model Update‼️
(As of November 4th)

Harris🟦- 50.8% (270.0 avg)
Trump🟥- 47.9% (268.0 avg)
Tie🟨- 1.3%

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Forecasted Margins in Swing States:

Arizona- R+1.5%
Georgia- R+1.2%
Michigan- D+1.4%
Nevada- D+1.0%
North Carolina- R+1.6%
Pennsylvania- D+0.4%
Wisconsin- D+0.6%

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Our final Presidential and Senate Model update will be released tomorrow morning

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Forecasted Margins in Competitive Races

Arizona- D+4.3%
Florida- R+6.0%
Michigan- D+4.9%
Montana- R+7.4%
Nebraska- R+8.4%
Nevada- D+7.1%
Ohio- R+0.7%
Pennsylvania- D+5.5%
Texas- R+8.8%

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Ratings Changes!!!

Michigan- Lean DEM---> Likely DEM
Nebraska- Safe GOP---> Likely GOP

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Democrat's Odds in Competitive Races

Arizona- 72%
Florida- 17%
Michigan- 76%
Montana- 10%
Nebraska- 7%
Nevada- 89%
Ohio- 52%
Pennsylvania- 80%
Texas- 5%

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Median Scenario:

GOP- 51
DEM- 49

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Senate Forecasting Model Update‼️
(As of October 21st)

Republicans🟥- 86.3% (51.2 avg)
Democrats🟦- 13.7% (48.8 avg)