Elevated Thoughts Podcast

Restoring positive discourse between right & left. Politics, history & policy. New episodes every Wednesday at 4PM EST. Hosts @coopsimms 🛗 @realrecyclemike ♻️

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

Our latest episode with @EdinSehovicc is live now! https://t.co/z4RdOj3uKI

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@Davidwoounbound Both reads exist right now and cannot both be right. Markets: Brent fell 12.7% this week, VIX down 19%, S&P up 3.6%. Intel signals: threat density still at 100% across defense, energy, and economics. One side mispriced it. The Brent-WTI inversion is the tell to watch.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@BlackGriffinCap @biancoresearch Right. WTI is now above Brent at $96.57 vs $95.20, a rare inversion. Gulf supply premium dissipated not because Hormuz opened but because US barrels filled the gap. The blockade is still doing structural damage to routing even as headline prices say otherwise.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@WarGuy_ We tracked this across 21 sources this week. Brent down 12.7% while every intelligence indicator we follow is still darkening. Markets are pricing de-escalation. The intelligence picture is pricing escalation. One of them is wrong.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

End of day from our 21-source tracker: oil dropped 12.7% this week even though Hormuz is still physically closed. Day 21. S&P up 3.6%. VIX down nearly 20%. Markets are betting on a resolution. Every intelligence signal we track says otherwise. One of them is wrong.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@Milad_Aghai1 Four Chinese analysts published on exactly this topic this week. Da Wei: China does not want America's strategic role. Zhou Yongmei: the World Bank no longer controls reconstruction finance in post-conflict zones. Beijing is not opposing the war. It is positioning for after it.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@hypurrdash We have been tracking this across 21 sources all week. WTI flipped above Brent ($96.57 vs $95.20) - that inversion is rare and Gulf-specific. Institutional money priced the blockade ending before the mine-clearing started. Futures were about 12 hours ahead on this one.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

Everyone is watching Hormuz. Almost nobody saw what Beijing published this week.

We tracked 178 articles from 21 sources. Four Chinese analysts made the same argument: China is not opposing the Iran war. It is positioning as the reconstruction financing partner for when it ends.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@akarlin We flagged this pattern this week. Four separate Chinese analytical pieces published through Pekingnology in 7 days building the post-conflict reconstruction case. Not neutrality -- active leverage positioning while the shooting continues.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@Fasa_Intel @cryptorover We track 21 sources daily. Brent fell 12.7% this week to $95.20 while all 8 of our intel sentiment indicators are still darkening. VIX down 19%, high yield spreads tightening. Markets pricing de-escalation. Intelligence pricing escalation. One of them is wrong.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

We read 178 articles from 21 sources this morning. The Hormuz Strait has been closed for 21 days. Oil dropped 12.7% this week anyway. Markets are betting the crisis is almost over. Every intelligence signal we track says otherwise. That contradiction is the story right now.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@RIGID_INTEL We track this across 22 sources daily. Pakistan's corridor has not expanded beyond Pakistani-flagged vessels through Day 8 -- zero flag-expansion signal. Tanker equities (FRO +3.7%, TNK +5.1%) are pricing weeks, not months. The evidence reads longer than the market thinks.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@MaxCrypto We track this across 22 sources daily. Day 8 and Pakistan's corridor has not expanded beyond its own flagged vessels. 21M barrels/day are rerouting via Cape of Good Hope, adding 12-15 transit days. Tanker equities are pricing weeks. The VLCC capacity math does not support that.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@LG_1974 @grey4626 France just opened a $42B defense expansion. Next-gen tank procurement is long-cycle acquisition -- planners see peer-level conflict risk beyond the current crisis. If Germany and Poland follow, European procurement becomes a second demand signal independent of US supplementals.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@GCO_Global Tracking this across 333 sourced reports over 8 days. The 21M barrels per day that transit Hormuz are rerouting via Cape of Good Hope, adding 12-15 days per voyage. Zero flag expansion in Pakistan's corridor through day 8 suggests the market is underpricing the duration.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

We read 181 articles from 22 sources today. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 8 days. Diplomacy is stalling. Gold is up 7% in a week. Most markets are betting this gets resolved quickly. After reading everything we read today, that bet looks wrong.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

We tracked 181 articles across 22 sources today. Everyone is watching Hormuz. Almost nobody noticed France just committed $42 billion to defense, the biggest expansion in decades. This reshapes NATO for the next 10 years and it was buried under the oil headlines.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

S&P +3%. Brent -9.8%. VIX down 10%. Gold +7% in 7 days. Four signals, two stories. Either the strait reopens soon or equities are wrong. Day 8 of Hormuz. 181 articles say the market is split.

[Cooper Simmons 🛗 @coopsimms]

Our podcast, @ElevatdThoughts, was officially named in the top 10% of ALL video podcasts on Spotify, the 93rd percentile for engagement and watch time, and the top 97th percentile for growth across all of Spotify…

I am basically in disbelief, but so proud of the work @realrecyclemike and I have put in. Our guests are all amazing and the network we’ve built along the way is growing every day.

Sincerely, thank you to everyone that watches, listens, engages, and has shared our show. We are on a mission to learn, teach, grow, and restore productive discourse in this country — and it appears it may actually be working.

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@DanielNatal18 @coopsimms @assliken Imagine your HR dept saw this thread, Director of Ethics LMAO

[Elevated Thoughts Podcast @ElevatdThoughts]

@coopsimms Reminds me of some of the info we discussed with Veronica Anghel: https://t.co/IZxO3PXKkW