Full-time trader for 10 yrs. Options and small caps. I play setups with big yields of 50% or more. NOT financial advice.
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$AIQ $RSP $SPY $QQQ
(Part 2)
…So, when I combine that we stopped at the 30SMA and that happens to be exactly at the apex of that “Symmetrical Triangle Pattern,” and when I combine that with all the factors that led to the perfect storm, and when I combine that with the $VIX analysis I did yesterday which showed how rare of an event it was to have a 39% rise in the VIX in one day and the probability of outcomes 30 days out after such an event, and when I also think that Trump hates big selloffs and that news came out towards the end of the day that he is specifically inviting AI companies to the Whitehouse and thinking about having the government take a stake in them, and when I also think about that after the closing bell on Friday $MRVL was announced to be going into the S&P, and when I think about the fact that in the first half of the day on Friday I did a post saying this is “getting a little flash crashy” and I turned out to be right as it was the largest single point drop in the Nasdaqs history……. When I take this whole paragraph into context it speaks of a major “Washout” and washouts are synonymous with local or short term bottoms… to add to that “soup” the volume on $QQQ was huge and at the level that also often marks washouts and temporary bottoms as high volume often in the $QQQ marks those type of points on the charts which I attached below as well
This does not mean we’re guaranteed to NOT go lower or that this low can’t be broken after a small bounce. But to me I’d say it’s about 60% chance we FULLY bottomed on Friday and about a 65% to 70% chance we have a local bottom and 30%chance we continue to meaningfully go lower to test the 50SMA and about 10% chance that any major correction or bear market just started especially when you consider the presentation of PART 1 where we have the 6 year base breakout in $AIQ vs $RSP with a measured move still to complete at higher levels
I hope you enjoyed the read
And as usual it’s not financial advice, much love! 💜🍌🍌🍌
$AIQ $RSP $SPY $QQQ
(Part 1 of 2)
THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS THIS WEEKEND
FIRST: $AIQ versus $RSP (6yr chart)
This is a Ratio chart which means imbedded in one single line chart is both ETF’s and measures the ratio between the two and the “performance” of $AIQ over $RSP
It shows that after 6 years the “Global Artificial Intelligence ETF” has broken out relative to the “Equal Weight S&P ETF”
Also, 6 year “base breakouts” generally have a long tailwind of many many months to years - as they saying goes “thr longer the base the higher the space”
The chart shows that we had a clear breakout which it was not able to achieve in 2024 and early 2025 and it finally broke out in later 2025, and in classic technical analysis form it then retested the breakout in early 2026 and then had its confirmed continuation (breakout and retest is highlighted by both the green arrow, red arrow, and green arrow again for the continuation).
Since it has done all of that it’s logical to say that it completes its measured move especially when you think about the fundamentals of strong earnings within the Artificial Intelligence sector. So this chart illustrates that there’s more gains ahead over time for this ratio of Artificial Intelligence outperforming the equal weighted S&P
SECOND CHART:
The second chart is the same $AIQ versus $RSP ratio chart, however I zoomed in on this last one year time frame to be able to look at this current month and the moves that ensued to get us to this overall point and OBVIOUSLY from what happened on FRIDAY
We can clearly see a “ONE YEAR BASE BREAKOUT”
Then after the breakout the chart came close to almost exactly retesting the breakout point called the “neckline” (highlighted by the blue horizontal line). Coming that close is considered a retest of the breakout and then the chart consolidated right above the “neckline” and formed a “Symmetrical Triangle Pattern” which is basically and generally a bullish consolidation pattern and tends to breakout into the direction of the preceding trend… so what happened?
It did, it broke out into the direction of the preceding trend which was upwards.
Then as we know several factors went into this sell off on Friday. Some of the main factors are that that the semiconductor and AI technology sector had overbought conditions with daily RSI’s in the 80’s. One of the other factors was that our ongoing tensions and conflict with Iran caused another hiccup which triggered oil prices to rise once again which then has a domino effect on interest rates and Yields especially the 10yr rose again which is a trigger often for see,king long duration names aka tech stocks. And one of the other main factors was the SPACEX IPO which effectively had professionals and retail investors selling winners to raise cash for the imminent IPO. I happen to think there’s enough liquidity and that many hedge funds and institutions use that narrative to front run the selling but I digress
Either way, it was a perfect storm to get a selloff going that was exacerbated by all the above reasons and that so many people had many outsized gains that the selling begot more selling as stops were triggered which led to more selling and so on
The chart is interesting in that regard, as I like to use something that most people don’t do and many professional technicians often do is using a 10SMA & 30SMA & 50SMA and have a 20SMA point spread between the three for symmetry and timing.
You can see that leading up to the first point that established the “neckline” mentioned above (which I circled in blue and the first blue circle along the blue highlighted line to the left), you can see that the 30SMA worked well for pullbacks just before that point just mentioned…
Well, that is exactly where the selloff stopped on Friday, and as an added “point of interest” it is also at the exact apex and tippy point of the “Symmetrical Triangle Pattern” that we broke out of 🤔
(continued in Part 2)
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Communicated-Disclaimer-
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Communicated-Disclaimer-
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Bitcoin rejected from the base of the Macro Triangle, revisited the 50-Month EMA and is now breaking down from the EMA as we speak
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