The carry trade is the clearest macro risk to $BTC right now.
JP10Y hit new highs while the yen sits near 162, and a sharp yen reversal from here would tighten liquidity and pressure $BTC and $ETH.
A real risk to a market still trying to find a floor.
Imagine this is actually the bottom and BTC goes to $500k
And instead of buying the bottom CT was busy chasing the latest influencer pump and dump
Might work out for some, won't work for the majority
We'd all be better off without these distractions
bitcoin is running two separate markets right now. tradfi pulled $9b from ETFs since october, coinbase premium negative for 51 straight days (longest ever recorded). meanwhile crypto-native whales accumulated 270,000 BTC in two weeks, spot volume share jumped from 50% to 67% in 12 months, exchange supply hit 2017 lows, and 78% of all BTC sits with long-term holders. strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216m to cover STRC dividends, their first sale since 2020, but still added +81,676 BTC net in Q2. miner stress at 0.00, realized P/L ratio at -0.35, both levels that only appeared at the 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022 bottoms. every single convergence metric is present. the only missing piece is sustained ETF inflows, which flickered for two days then stalled at +197 BTC on july 8. tradfi is providing exit liquidity and the onchain market is absorbing every coin
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Bitcoin’s halving playbook has not shown up this time.
806 days after the April 2024 halving, $BTC is still around 2% below its halving-day price.
The first sign this cycle is late, not broken, is a sustained reclaim of that level.
The two largest forces in $BTC are pulling opposite ways.
Strategy sold at a loss, IBIT is recording net inflows again, and price is holding between them.
Early momentum, but not yet proof the big money has returned.
Someone spent $4.4M to steal $21.2M from the #BONK treasury, making a profit of $16.8M.
How did it happen?👇
➡️ On June 30, the attacker submitted a governance proposal to transfer 4.426T $BONK($21.2M) from the treasury to a wallet he controlled (9bxW...JHvQ).
https://t.co/8E7Qbstiwu
➡️ Over the past 2 days, he bought 882.285B $BONK($4.4M) on #Bybit and #Binance, enough to exceed the 879.95B $BONK quorum required for the proposal.
https://t.co/z1qml8o55X
➡️ He then voted "Yes" with all 882.285B $BONK.
➡️ The proposal passed, and 4.426T $BONK($21.2M) was automatically transferred to his wallet.
https://t.co/SZ9hj33MjI
➡️ So far, 40B $BONK($188K) has been deposited to #OKX, while the remaining 4.386T $BONK($19.3M) is held in wallet EXaJnm...eh42.